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Gridpex

Upsets

Analysis

“Biggest upset” is a phrase people use without a definition, and the definition is the whole argument. Three of them here, scored before anything was ranked, and kept separate — blending them would produce a list nobody could argue with, which sounds good and is the problem.

Rank byBiggest missLongest oddsBiggest poll gap

Final margin minus the points the market spotted the winner. The purest statement that the number was wrong, and it does not care whether anyone was ranked.

SeasonAll-time20262025202420232022202120202019201820172016201520142013
#ResultDog byMissWin prob
1South Carolina over Florida
40–17 · at home · 2021-11-06
+20.5+43.510%
2Rutgers over Indiana
38–3 · on the road · 2021-11-13
+6.5+41.534%
3East Tennessee State over Vanderbilt
23–3 · on the road · 2021-09-05
+21+41.09%
4Tennessee over Missouri
62–24 · on the road · 2021-10-02
+2.5+40.544%
5Utah State over #19San Diego State
46–13 · on the road · 2021-12-04
+6.5+39.534%
6Houston over Tulsa
45–10 · on the road · 2021-10-01
+3.5+38.541%
7Georgia Tech over #21North Carolina
45–22 · neutral site · 2021-09-25
+14.5+37.518%
8Ball State over Western Michigan
45–20 · on the road · 2021-10-09
+12.5+37.522%
9Hawai'i over Wyoming
38–14 · on the road · 2021-11-27
+13+37.021%
10Texas Tech over Mississippi State
34–7 · neutral site · 2021-12-28
+10+37.027%
11UL Monroe over Troy
29–16 · at home · 2021-09-26
+23.5+36.57%
12Army over Georgia State
43–10 · on the road · 2021-09-04
+2.5+35.544%
13UL Monroe over Liberty
31–28 · at home · 2021-10-16
+32.5+35.52%
14Utah State over San José State
48–17 · on the road · 2021-11-14
+4.5+35.539%
15Bowling Green over Minnesota
14–10 · on the road · 2021-09-25
+30.5+34.53%
16#12Notre Dame over #18Wisconsin
41–13 · neutral site · 2021-09-25
+6+34.035%
17Kentucky over Louisville
52–21 · on the road · 2021-11-28
+3+34.043%
18Western Kentucky over Marshall
53–21 · on the road · 2021-11-27
+1.5+33.546%
19Minnesota over Colorado
30–0 · on the road · 2021-09-18
+2.5+32.544%
20#22Louisiana over Liberty
42–14 · on the road · 2021-11-20
+4.5+32.539%
21Wyoming over Utah State
44–17 · on the road · 2021-11-21
+5.5+32.537%
22Louisiana over App State
41–13 · at home · 2021-10-12
+4+32.040%
23Kansas over Texas
57–56 · on the road · 2021-11-14
+31+32.03%
24Stanford over #14USC
42–28 · on the road · 2021-09-12
+17.5+31.514%
25Southern Miss over Louisiana Tech
35–19 · on the road · 2021-11-20
+15.5+31.517%
26New Mexico over Wyoming
14–3 · on the road · 2021-10-23
+20+31.011%
27Duquesne over Ohio
28–26 · on the road · 2021-09-11
+28.5+30.54%
28Jacksonville State over Florida State
20–17 · on the road · 2021-09-12
+27.5+30.54%
29Colorado State over Toledo
22–6 · on the road · 2021-09-18
+14.5+30.518%
30North Texas over #15UTSA
45–23 · at home · 2021-11-27
+8.5+30.530%
31Rice over UAB
30–24 · on the road · 2021-10-23
+24+30.07%
32Boise State over #25Fresno State
40–14 · on the road · 2021-11-06
+4+30.040%
33Washington State over Arizona State
34–21 · on the road · 2021-10-30
+16.5+29.515%
34South Carolina over #10North Carolina
38–21 · neutral site · 2021-12-30
+12.5+29.522%
35Oregon State over USC
45–27 · on the road · 2021-09-26
+11+29.025%
36Akron over Bowling Green
35–20 · on the road · 2021-10-09
+14+29.019%
37Montana over #20Washington
13–7 · on the road · 2021-09-05
+22.5+28.58%
38Northern Arizona over Arizona
21–19 · on the road · 2021-09-19
+26.5+28.55%
39Michigan State over #24Miami
38–17 · on the road · 2021-09-18
+7+28.033%
40Purdue over #2Iowa
24–7 · on the road · 2021-10-16
+11+28.025%
41Florida State over North Carolina
35–25 · on the road · 2021-10-09
+17.5+27.514%
42Liberty over UAB
36–12 · on the road · 2021-10-02
+3+27.043%
43Illinois over #7Penn State
20–18 · on the road · 2021-10-23
+24.5+26.56%
44East Carolina over Tulane
52–29 · at home · 2021-10-02
+3+26.043%
45Maryland over Rutgers
40–16 · on the road · 2021-11-27
+2+26.045%
46San Diego State over Arizona
38–14 · on the road · 2021-09-12
+1.5+25.546%
47Bowling Green over Buffalo
56–44 · on the road · 2021-10-30
+13.5+25.520%
48Arkansas over #15Texas
40–21 · at home · 2021-09-11
+6+25.035%
49UC Davis over Tulsa
19–17 · on the road · 2021-09-02
+22+24.08%
50Wake Forest over Virginia
37–17 · on the road · 2021-09-24
+3.5+23.541%
51UL Monroe over South Alabama
41–31 · at home · 2021-10-23
+13.5+23.520%
52#4Alabama over #1Georgia
41–24 · neutral site · 2021-12-04
+6.5+23.534%
53#14Michigan over Wisconsin
38–17 · on the road · 2021-10-02
+2+23.045%
54Kansas State over Nevada
38–17 · at home · 2021-09-18
+1.5+22.546%
55Washington State over California
21–6 · on the road · 2021-10-02
+7.5+22.532%
56UTEP over Louisiana Tech
19–3 · at home · 2021-10-17
+6.5+22.534%
57Illinois over Minnesota
14–6 · on the road · 2021-11-06
+14.5+22.518%
58Syracuse over Ohio
29–9 · on the road · 2021-09-04
+2+22.045%
59Ball State over Army
28–16 · at home · 2021-10-02
+10+22.027%
60Arizona State over #20UCLA
42–23 · on the road · 2021-10-03
+3+22.043%

What limits this archive

Two of the three measures need a closing line, and line history is dense from 2013 and thin before it. That is a hard boundary, not a soft one — an archive that quietly dropped the seasons it could not price would present the 1980s as having had no upsets. Rows with no line carry only the poll measure, and the columns show which is which.

The lines are sportsbook numbers only. FiveThirtyEight, Nate Silver, numberfire, teamrankings are excluded: they are model sites, and grading a surprise against another model’s prediction measures the disagreement between two models, not a surprise.

Win probability converts the closing spread through a normal margin with σ = 16 points, the same distribution the live win-probability model uses.