Illinois vs. Minnesota: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
ILLTeam statsMINN
- Q4 4:49MINNTanner Morgan 1 Yd Run (Matthew Trickett PAT failed)14–6
- Q2 14:55ILLTip Reiman 15 Yd pass from Brandon Peters (James McCourt Kick)14–0
- Q1 8:15ILLIsaiah Williams 2 Yd Run (James McCourt Kick)7–0
How the model called it
What the numbers say
- MINN played behind the sticks — third downs that long convert rarely, and ILL did not face the same ones. 3rd & 10.4 vs 3rd & 7.7
- PassBrandon Peters 7/9, 80 YDS, 1 TD
- RushChase Brown 32 CAR, 147 YDS
- RecCasey Washington 1 REC, 23 YDS
- PassTanner Morgan 15/28, 180 YDS, 2 INT
- RushKy Thomas 16 CAR, 60 YDS
- RecBrevyn Spann-Ford 4 REC, 49 YDS
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsILL up 14 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,012 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q2 14:55ILL +20%
Brandon Peters pass complete to Tip Reiman for 15 yds for a TD, (James McCourt KICK)
- Q3 0:00ILL +16%
Brown, Chase rush for 3 yards to the MINNESOTA29, PENALTY ILLINOIS holding (Palczewski, Alex) 10 yards to the MINNESOTA42, NO PLAY
- Q1 8:15ILL +15%
Isaiah Williams run for 2 yds for a TD, (James McCourt KICK)
- Q4 1:20ILL +12%
ILLINOIS Penalty, Delay of Game ( Yards) declined
- Q4 4:49MINN +9%
Tanner Morgan run for 1 yd for a TD, (Matthew Trickett PAT MISSED)
- Q4 9:45ILL +8%
Blake Hayes punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Brock Annexstad at the Minn 14
FAQ
What was the final score of Illinois vs. Minnesota?
Illinois 14, Minnesota 6.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked MINN, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
| ILL | MINN | |
|---|---|---|
| 265 | Total yards | 289 |
| 80 | Passing yards | 200 |
| 185 | Rushing yards | 89 |
| 17 | First downs | 20 |
| 5-12 | 3rd down | 3-13 |
| 0-0 | 4th down | 1-3 |
| 7/10 | Comp/Att | 16/30 |
| 8.0 | Yards per pass | 6.7 |
| 3.9 | Yards per rush | 2.5 |
| 0 | Turnovers | 2 |
| 7-72 | Penalties | 4-35 |
| 30:20 | Possession | 29:40 |
Costliest call
Q2 9:47 ILL punt on 4th & 1 at ILL 31. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 1.10 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 4:49MINNTanner Morgan 1 Yd Run (Matthew Trickett PAT failed)14–6
- Q2 14:55ILLTip Reiman 15 Yd pass from Brandon Peters (James McCourt Kick)14–0
- Q1 8:15ILLIsaiah Williams 2 Yd Run (James McCourt Kick)7–0
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (MINN Elo 1685, ILL Elo 1355 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects MINN -15.6 (85% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2021
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles#57 of 112 in 2021 by biggest miss · #25 of 128 in 2021 by longest odds.
The 2021 upset archive →Minnesota leads 41–33–3 · 38% have been one-possession games
| ILL | MINN | |
|---|---|---|
| -6.3 (#91) | CORE overall | +12.4 (#30) |
| -5 / +1 | offense / defense | +3 / -10 |
| 1.70 | points / drive | 2.35 |
| 2.02 | allowed / drive | 1.57 |
| 26% | three-and-outs | 21% |
| -8 | pass over expected | -14 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →