Pass Rate Over Expected (PROE)

Losing teams throw and winning teams run. PROE takes that out, so what is left is what the coach chose.

Rank byPass over expectedEarly downs onlyFourth down vs peersFourth down vs the modelRaw pass rate

LeagueAll FBSACCAmerican AthleticBig 12Big TenConference USAFBS IndependentsMid-AmericanMountain WestPac-12SECSun Belt

Season202620252024202320222021202020192018201720162015

Pass rate minus the league's pass rate from the same down, distance, field position, score and clock. A statement about the staff rather than the schedule.

Most

+27.6%

Mississippi State

Least

−36.1%

Navy

Spread

63.7%

top to bottom

Fourth downs

21%

model says 34% — why →

Pass over expected— against the spots faced

Across is what an average staff would have thrown from this team's actual snaps. Distance above the line is identity; distance along it is game script.

130 teams · dashed lines mark the league medianr = 0.23(r² = 0.05)

Pass over expected— the two ends

← runs more than expected±36%throws more →

Throws over expected

Runs over expected

2026 through week 1

#	Team	Conf	Pass	Exp	PROE	Early	Go	vs peers	vs model
1	Mississippi State	SEC	76.0	48.4	+27.6	+29.8	17	+0.5	-29.4
2	Western Kentucky	Conference USA	72.0	47.3	+24.6	+27.4	29	+6.8	+0.0
3	Nevada	Mountain West	68.6	50.2	+18.4	+19.4	20	+1.9	-27.5
4	Purdue	Big Ten	64.7	46.5	+18.3	+18.1	12	-3.0	-43.6
5	Virginia	ACC	68.7	51.3	+17.4	+20.4	23	-2.1	-3.3
6	Fresno State	Mountain West	60.6	46.6	+14.1	+14.7	14	-2.1	-43.2
7	Maryland	Big Ten	59.6	47.7	+11.9	+13.0	21	-0.6	-25.0
8	Arkansas State	Sun Belt	66.5	54.7	+11.8	+10.5	16	-2.5	-26.8
9	Alabama	SEC	58.0	46.5	+11.5	+10.8	14	-5.3	-43.6
10	Bowling Green	Mid-American	61.4	50.1	+11.3	+13.2	17	+0.6	-16.7
11	Ohio State	Big Ten	59.0	47.8	+11.2	+13.0	28	+2.0	-10.0
12	New Mexico State	FBS Independents	63.9	52.8	+11.1	+14.0	15	-3.9	-19.1
13	Pittsburgh	ACC	57.0	46.1	+10.9	+11.1	23	+2.5	-24.4
14	Miami	ACC	59.2	49.0	+10.1	+11.5	23	+0.1	-17.1
15	Washington State	Pac-12	58.1	48.2	+9.9	+11.9	22	+1.9	-27.5
16	NC State	ACC	60.2	51.3	+8.9	+6.3	13	-2.1	-31.4
17	Penn State	Big Ten	57.9	49.7	+8.2	+10.1	21	-0.9	-19.6
18	SMU	American Athletic	55.8	47.6	+8.1	+9.1	26	+6.8	-29.7
19	Cincinnati	American Athletic	52.4	44.3	+8.1	+8.8	20	+3.0	-26.7
20	West Virginia	Big 12	56.6	48.6	+7.9	+8.9	23	+2.5	-14.6
21	Notre Dame	FBS Independents	55.3	47.6	+7.7	+7.0	17	-0.5	-24.4
22	Troy	Sun Belt	59.8	52.2	+7.6	+8.0	20	-0.1	-31.7
23	Oklahoma	Big 12	52.2	44.7	+7.4	+7.3	20	+0.3	-16.1
24	USC	Pac-12	58.1	50.8	+7.2	+7.7	18	-1.9	-10.0
25	Eastern Michigan	Mid-American	57.4	50.3	+7.1	+9.6	25	+2.6	-10.9
26	Marshall	Conference USA	54.5	47.8	+6.7	+9.7	18	+1.3	-31.4
27	Wake Forest	ACC	53.5	46.8	+6.7	+6.3	19	-0.6	-37.8
28	Stanford	Pac-12	58.3	51.7	+6.6	+6.9	14	-3.1	-25.8
29	Memphis	American Athletic	56.9	50.7	+6.2	+8.4	39	+13.9	+8.0
30	Middle Tennessee	Conference USA	56.4	50.2	+6.2	+8.0	26	+2.1	-14.9
31	San José State	Mountain West	55.6	49.6	+6.0	+6.0	11	-7.5	-46.3
32	Iowa State	Big 12	57.3	51.6	+5.6	+5.8	23	-1.7	-27.9
33	Houston	American Athletic	52.5	47.1	+5.4	+5.9	23	+1.1	-34.0
34	Florida International	Conference USA	56.8	52.0	+4.8	+2.6	10	-3.9	-50.0
35	Hawai'i	Mountain West	56.2	51.4	+4.8	+3.7	18	-1.3	-24.4
36	Boise State	Mountain West	53.5	48.8	+4.7	+4.2	17	-3.2	-41.9
37	Miami (OH)	Mid-American	53.5	49.1	+4.5	+5.0	18	-0.2	-31.6
38	Temple	American Athletic	54.7	50.4	+4.3	+4.8	22	-2.3	-22.5
39	LSU	SEC	53.7	49.5	+4.2	+5.0	27	-1.5	-25.0
40	Louisiana Tech	Conference USA	54.1	49.9	+4.2	+1.5	17	-2.5	-38.3
41	Washington	Pac-12	54.1	50.2	+3.9	+2.8	25	+0.3	-35.1
42	California	Pac-12	51.6	47.7	+3.9	+2.0	26	+3.4	-12.2
43	Ball State	Mid-American	52.5	48.7	+3.8	+3.1	16	-3.3	-39.6
44	UConn	FBS Independents	57.8	54.1	+3.6	+4.2	19	+0.2	-21.6
45	Auburn	SEC	54.4	51.0	+3.3	+2.4	22	+2.1	-23.9
46	BYU	FBS Independents	47.1	43.9	+3.2	+6.1	30	+5.9	-15.8
47	Texas A&M	SEC	52.6	49.4	+3.2	+2.8	9	-6.4	-42.4
48	South Alabama	Sun Belt	52.9	50.0	+2.9	+4.5	43	+14.4	-1.9
49	Utah State	Mountain West	51.3	48.5	+2.8	+2.2	24	+1.2	-26.7
50	Georgia	SEC	49.3	46.9	+2.4	+1.2	11	-6.5	-50.0
51	Charlotte	Conference USA	52.4	50.4	+2.1	+2.8	37	+6.7	+0.0
52	Michigan State	Big Ten	48.6	47.0	+1.6	+0.3	21	+5.0	-21.6
53	UTSA	Conference USA	47.6	46.0	+1.6	+1.8	23	+0.4	-25.6
54	Central Michigan	Mid-American	50.5	49.0	+1.5	+2.8	22	+0.9	-24.0
55	Liberty	FBS Independents	52.2	50.8	+1.4	+2.2	35	+12.4	+0.0
56	Missouri	SEC	51.3	50.0	+1.3	+0.6	14	-4.8	-39.0
57	Indiana	Big Ten	54.6	53.4	+1.2	+4.7	16	-5.9	-27.5
58	Florida Atlantic	Conference USA	51.4	50.7	+0.7	-1.0	21	-0.1	-34.2
59	UNLV	Mountain West	51.3	50.7	+0.6	-1.1	16	-2.9	-33.3
60	East Carolina	American Athletic	51.1	50.5	+0.6	+0.1	33	+7.8	-9.6
61	Clemson	ACC	48.9	48.4	+0.5	-0.4	13	-2.9	-46.3
62	Oregon	Pac-12	44.5	44.3	+0.2	+1.5	20	-1.9	-42.1
63	Old Dominion	Conference USA	49.1	49.3	-0.2	+0.8	19	-1.7	-26.8
64	Ole Miss	SEC	45.5	45.8	-0.3	+3.0	43	+21.8	-2.1
65	UCF	American Athletic	48.0	48.8	-0.8	-1.3	11	-1.7	-26.9
66	Texas Tech	Big 12	48.5	49.3	-0.8	-0.1	33	+5.4	-2.9
67	Iowa	Big Ten	48.2	49.1	-0.9	-2.7	12	-4.7	-49.1
68	Akron	Mid-American	52.7	53.7	-1.0	+0.8	33	+7.1	+11.8
69	Kansas State	Big 12	46.7	47.7	-1.1	-1.5	27	+4.4	-18.9
70	Florida	SEC	47.1	48.2	-1.1	-0.2	25	+0.3	-25.0
71	Northwestern	Big Ten	50.6	51.8	-1.3	-0.8	29	+7.5	+14.3
72	Arizona	Pac-12	52.8	54.0	-1.3	-3.2	23	-2.3	-22.2
73	UTEP	Conference USA	47.0	48.3	-1.3	-3.9	17	-2.2	-39.0
74	Oklahoma State	Big 12	45.4	46.8	-1.4	-0.6	10	-8.0	-58.3
75	Michigan	Big Ten	43.4	44.9	-1.6	-1.5	25	+3.9	-29.8
76	Louisiana	Sun Belt	44.1	45.8	-1.7	+1.2	33	+10.8	-19.1
77	North Carolina	ACC	49.1	51.0	-1.9	-1.7	18	-2.3	-45.0
78	Kentucky	SEC	44.2	46.1	-1.9	-1.6	20	-1.1	-42.9
79	Toledo	Mid-American	50.9	52.8	-2.0	-1.3	19	+4.1	-34.0
80	Texas	Big 12	48.3	50.3	-2.0	-1.1	21	+1.3	-19.4
81	Utah	Pac-12	46.0	48.0	-2.0	-2.0	28	+1.3	-11.8
82	Vanderbilt	SEC	51.6	53.8	-2.2	-3.2	24	+1.0	-12.5
83	Rutgers	Big Ten	47.1	49.3	-2.3	-1.8	26	+2.5	-23.5
84	Texas State	Sun Belt	51.6	54.0	-2.4	-0.3	21	+1.7	-27.1
85	Florida State	ACC	49.0	51.4	-2.4	-2.7	22	-0.8	-29.5
86	Tulsa	American Athletic	45.4	48.0	-2.5	-4.1	18	-1.5	-42.5
87	Coastal Carolina	Sun Belt	42.4	45.0	-2.6	+0.5	19	+3.4	-51.8
88	Tennessee	SEC	46.3	48.9	-2.6	-2.4	29	+5.6	-5.9
89	Western Michigan	Mid-American	42.4	45.1	-2.7	-2.2	30	+6.2	-21.4
90	App State	Sun Belt	45.8	48.6	-2.8	-1.7	35	+6.6	-6.3
91	Baylor	Big 12	41.1	44.0	-2.9	+1.2	33	+12.3	-13.2
92	South Carolina	SEC	46.7	49.8	-3.1	-4.0	20	-0.9	-26.8
93	San Diego State	Mountain West	43.8	47.3	-3.5	-1.8	13	-5.2	-54.0
94	Ohio	Mid-American	45.0	48.9	-3.9	-4.1	19	-5.6	-35.7
95	Duke	ACC	46.5	50.6	-4.1	-2.2	24	+0.1	-21.4
96	Kent State	Mid-American	44.3	48.6	-4.3	-1.5	24	+0.9	-25.5
97	Nebraska	Big Ten	46.7	51.1	-4.4	-2.0	25	+0.6	-7.7
98	UCLA	Pac-12	42.7	47.3	-4.6	-6.2	37	+4.8	-7.0
99	UAB	Conference USA	41.6	46.4	-4.8	-5.3	15	+3.6	-11.5
100	Rice	Conference USA	45.2	50.4	-5.1	-6.3	29	+3.7	-23.8
101	Tulane	American Athletic	52.1	57.3	-5.2	-1.0	41	+12.8	+14.9
102	Louisville	ACC	44.2	49.5	-5.3	-5.4	28	+3.7	-25.6
103	Arizona State	Pac-12	43.2	48.5	-5.3	-6.1	20	-3.7	-34.3
104	South Florida	American Athletic	46.6	51.9	-5.3	-3.5	30	-0.9	-15.9
105	Southern Miss	Conference USA	46.8	52.2	-5.4	-4.8	16	-1.6	-18.5
106	UL Monroe	Sun Belt	48.2	53.5	-5.4	-6.1	23	-0.5	-21.7
107	Oregon State	Pac-12	41.7	47.5	-5.8	-7.0	30	+6.4	-11.1
108	Colorado State	Mountain West	45.9	52.3	-6.4	-9.0	19	-1.9	-38.0
109	Colorado	Pac-12	44.5	50.9	-6.4	-7.6	15	-5.5	-34.2
110	Georgia Tech	ACC	46.7	53.2	-6.5	-5.5	23	-0.6	-15.8
111	TCU	Big 12	43.8	50.3	-6.6	-6.5	24	-1.7	-25.0
112	Massachusetts	FBS Independents	45.9	52.7	-6.8	-5.6	28	+5.2	-12.1
113	Boston College	ACC	40.5	47.9	-7.4	-9.5	22	+0.2	-20.0
114	Wisconsin	Big Ten	38.9	46.4	-7.5	-10.8	22	-4.5	-35.3
115	Kansas	Big 12	45.1	52.6	-7.5	-8.6	29	+3.4	-25.6
116	Buffalo	Mid-American	44.5	52.2	-7.7	-10.2	26	+1.6	-15.9
117	Illinois	Big Ten	43.1	50.7	-7.7	-10.1	9	-7.4	-41.5
118	Georgia State	Sun Belt	37.6	45.4	-7.8	-6.9	18	+2.8	-28.1
119	Arkansas	SEC	40.1	48.9	-8.8	-9.2	18	-3.2	-31.7
120	North Texas	Conference USA	41.0	50.0	-8.9	-10.9	32	+6.3	-2.1
121	Virginia Tech	ACC	39.9	49.3	-9.5	-10.0	19	-1.8	-41.2
122	Syracuse	ACC	41.5	51.5	-10.0	-12.0	15	-2.4	-30.3
123	Wyoming	Mountain West	38.4	49.6	-11.2	-12.8	21	-6.2	-32.4
124	New Mexico	Mountain West	41.5	52.9	-11.5	-10.1	18	-2.1	-40.0
125	Northern Illinois	Mid-American	36.4	49.4	-13.0	-14.0	30	+4.5	-17.2
126	Minnesota	Big Ten	32.4	46.8	-14.3	-14.4	19	-4.5	-28.3
127	Georgia Southern	Sun Belt	37.2	52.3	-15.1	-15.1	20	-1.0	-18.4
128	Air Force	Mountain West	14.8	45.4	-30.6	-29.3	38	+9.9	-18.4
129	Army	FBS Independents	14.5	45.8	-31.3	-29.5	43	+10.8	-17.3
130	Navy	American Athletic	14.8	50.9	-36.1	-33.9	32	+3.7	-18.2

How this number is computed

A gradient-boosted classifier predicts the probability that a given snap is a pass, from the game state alone — down, distance, yardsToGoal, margin, secs_left, period, venue, off_to, def_to — fit on 118,147 fourth downs and roughly a million scrimmage plays across 12 seasons. PROE is a team’s actual pass rate minus what that model expected from the same situations, so the schedule and the scoreboard are divided out before any team is compared with any other.

⚠ No team identity enters the model. That is what makes it a measure of choice rather than a measure of circumstance — and it is also why a team with few plays has a noisy number rather than a wrong one. Excludes overtime, garbage time, FBS vs FCS. Rebuilt 2026-09-10.

The reference table

What the league throws from each situation — the baseline every “over expected” number on this page is measured against. The model itself is a gradient boosting fit on down, distance, yardsToGoal, margin, secs_left, period, venue, off_to, def_to; this is the same thing in a form you can read.

Down	To go	opp 20	opp 21-50	own 20-49	own 1-19
1	1-2	12%	—	—	—
1	3-4	20%	—	—	—
1	5-7	26%	43%	40%	—
1	8-10	35%	46%	45%	36%
1	11+	47%	53%	52%	45%
2	1-2	17%	34%	33%	25%
2	3-4	30%	37%	38%	32%
2	5-7	39%	44%	47%	42%
2	8-10	50%	54%	56%	52%
2	11+	58%	62%	65%	59%
3	1-2	19%	18%	23%	26%
3	3-4	53%	51%	69%	67%
3	5-7	73%	69%	82%	78%
3	8-10	79%	78%	84%	77%
3	11+	76%	75%	77%	68%

Excluded from every number on this page: overtime, garbage time, FBS vs FCS. A call made down forty in the fourth quarter is not a call.