San Diego State vs. Arizona: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
SDSUTeam statsARIZ
- Q4 8:24ARIZTayvian Cunningham 7 Yd pass from Will Plummer (Tyler Loop Kick)38–14
- Q3 5:13SDSUMatt Araiza 32 Yd Field Goal 38–7
- Q2 1:52SDSUEthan Dedeaux 40 Yd pass from Jordon Brookshire (Matt Araiza Kick)35–7
- Q2 12:29SDSUDaniel Bellinger 25 Yd pass from Jordon Brookshire (Matt Araiza Kick)28–7
- Q1 5:50ARIZStanley Berryhill III 43 Yd pass from Gunner Cruz (Tyler Loop Kick)21–7
- Q1 7:07SDSUTyrell Shavers 27 Yd Return of Blocked Punt (Matt Araiza Kick)21–0
- Q1 9:12SDSUJordon Brookshire 3 Yd Run (Matt Araiza Kick)14–0
- Q1 13:22SDSUGreg Bell 55 Yd Run (Matt Araiza Kick)7–0
How the model called it
What the numbers say
- ARIZ played behind the sticks — third downs that long convert rarely, and SDSU did not face the same ones. 3rd & 10.5 vs 3rd & 7.1
- PassJordon Brookshire 10/14, 183 YDS, 2 TD
- RushGreg Bell 17 CAR, 125 YDS, 1 TD
- RecDaniel Bellinger 3 REC, 113 YDS, 1 TD
- PassWill Plummer 8/17, 109 YDS, 1 TD
- RushStanley Berryhill 2 CAR, 26 YDS
- RecTayvian Cunningham 5 REC, 81 YDS, 1 TD
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsSDSU up 28 entering the 4th quarter. Across 465 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q1 9:12SDSU +9%
Jordon Brookshire run for 3 yds for a TD, (Matt Araiza KICK)
FAQ
What was the final score of San Diego State vs. Arizona?
San Diego State 38, Arizona 14.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (SDSU) was correct.
| SDSU | ARIZ | |
|---|---|---|
| 454 | Total yards | 230 |
| 183 | Passing yards | 179 |
| 271 | Rushing yards | 51 |
| 21 | First downs | 9 |
| 5-14 | 3rd down | 1-14 |
| 0-1 | 4th down | 0-2 |
| 10/15 | Comp/Att | 18/36 |
| 12.2 | Yards per pass | 5.0 |
| 4.9 | Yards per rush | 2.6 |
| 0 | Turnovers | 1 |
| 8-85 | Penalties | 8-73 |
| 37:34 | Possession | 22:26 |
Costliest call
Q3 11:03 SDSU go for it on 4th & 7 at SDSU 34. The model preferred punt, a gap of 0.87 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 8:24ARIZTayvian Cunningham 7 Yd pass from Will Plummer (Tyler Loop Kick)38–14
- Q3 5:13SDSUMatt Araiza 32 Yd Field Goal 38–7
- Q2 1:52SDSUEthan Dedeaux 40 Yd pass from Jordon Brookshire (Matt Araiza Kick)35–7
- Q2 12:29SDSUDaniel Bellinger 25 Yd pass from Jordon Brookshire (Matt Araiza Kick)28–7
- Q1 5:50ARIZStanley Berryhill III 43 Yd pass from Gunner Cruz (Tyler Loop Kick)21–7
- Q1 7:07SDSUTyrell Shavers 27 Yd Return of Blocked Punt (Matt Araiza Kick)21–0
- Q1 9:12SDSUJordon Brookshire 3 Yd Run (Matt Araiza Kick)14–0
- Q1 13:22SDSUGreg Bell 55 Yd Run (Matt Araiza Kick)7–0
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (ARIZ Elo 1304, SDSU Elo 1582 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects ARIZ +8.7 (29% to win) — 10.2 points clear of SDSU's market line of -1.5. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2021
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles#46 of 112 in 2021 by biggest miss · #110 of 128 in 2021 by longest odds.
The 2021 upset archive →Arizona leads 9–6 · 47% have been one-possession games
| SDSU | ARIZ | |
|---|---|---|
| +9.6 (#42) | CORE overall | -11.1 (#100) |
| -5 / -14 | offense / defense | -10 / +2 |
| 1.92 | points / drive | 1.11 |
| 1.38 | allowed / drive | 2.52 |
| 29% | three-and-outs | 28% |
| -4 | pass over expected | -1 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →