UConn vs. Georgia State: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
CONNTeam statsGAST
- Q4 3:57CONNBrett Buckman 32 Yd pass from Ta'Quan Roberson (Joe McFadden Kick)14–35
- Q4 6:26GASTMarcus Carroll 39 Yd Run (Liam Rickman Kick)7–35
- Q4 9:16CONNKevens Clercius 11 Yd pass from Ta'Quan Roberson (Joe McFadden Kick)7–28
- Q3 4:07GASTMarcus Carroll 3 Yd Run (Liam Rickman Kick)0–28
- Q2 0:23GASTMarcus Carroll 2 Yd Run (Liam Rickman Kick)0–21
- Q2 5:22GASTRobert Lewis 9 Yd pass from Darren Grainger (Liam Rickman Kick)0–14
- Q1 8:40GASTDarren Grainger 65 Yd Run (Liam Rickman Kick)0–7
How the model called it
What the numbers say
- CONN played behind the sticks — third downs that long convert rarely, and GAST did not face the same ones. 3rd & 9.8 vs 3rd & 7.3
- PassTa'Quan Roberson 19/30, 216 YDS, 2 TD, 1 INT
- RushVictor Rosa 10 CAR, 17 YDS
- RecBrett Buckman 9 REC, 93 YDS, 1 TD
- PassDarren Grainger 15/26, 144 YDS, 1 TD
- RushDarren Grainger 12 CAR, 142 YDS, 1 TD
- RecJa'Cyais Credle 3 REC, 45 YDS
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsGAST up 28 entering the 4th quarter. Across 462 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q1 8:40GAST +12%
Darren Grainger run for 65 yds for a TD (Liam Rickman KICK)
- Q2 5:22GAST +8%
Darren Grainger pass complete to Robert Lewis for 9 yds for a TD (Liam Rickman KICK)
FAQ
What was the final score of UConn vs. Georgia State?
UConn 14, Georgia State 35.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (GAST) was correct.
| CONN | GAST | |
|---|---|---|
| 326 | Total yards | 394 |
| 276 | Passing yards | 144 |
| 50 | Rushing yards | 250 |
| 19 | First downs | 18 |
| 10-18 | 3rd down | 8-17 |
| 0-1 | 4th down | 1-2 |
| 23/39 | Comp/Att | 15/26 |
| 7.1 | Yards per pass | 5.5 |
| 1.6 | Yards per rush | 5.6 |
| 3 | Turnovers | 1 |
| 8-65 | Penalties | 2-23 |
| 32:32 | Possession | 27:28 |
Costliest call
Q4 6:33 CONN go for it on 4th & 15 at CONN 38. The model preferred punt, a gap of 1.02 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 3:57CONNBrett Buckman 32 Yd pass from Ta'Quan Roberson (Joe McFadden Kick)14–35
- Q4 6:26GASTMarcus Carroll 39 Yd Run (Liam Rickman Kick)7–35
- Q4 9:16CONNKevens Clercius 11 Yd pass from Ta'Quan Roberson (Joe McFadden Kick)7–28
- Q3 4:07GASTMarcus Carroll 3 Yd Run (Liam Rickman Kick)0–28
- Q2 0:23GASTMarcus Carroll 2 Yd Run (Liam Rickman Kick)0–21
- Q2 5:22GASTRobert Lewis 9 Yd pass from Darren Grainger (Liam Rickman Kick)0–14
- Q1 8:40GASTDarren Grainger 65 Yd Run (Liam Rickman Kick)0–7
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (GAST Elo 1490, CONN Elo 1264 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects GAST -11.4 (78% to win) — 8.4 points clear of GAST's market line of -3. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2023
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles| CONN | GAST | |
|---|---|---|
| -17.9 (#119) | CORE overall | -2.0 (#72) |
| -11 / +7 | offense / defense | +0 / +2 |
| 1.24 | points / drive | 2.10 |
| 2.49 | allowed / drive | 2.42 |
| 30% | three-and-outs | 27% |
| -2 | pass over expected | -2 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →