Mississippi State vs. Texas Tech: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
MSSTTeam statsTTU
- Q4 8:47TTUSaRodorick Thompson 1 Yd Run (Jonathan Garibay Kick)7–34
- Q3 0:02TTUJ.J. Sparkman 14 Yd pass from Donovan Smith (Jonathan Garibay Kick)7–27
- Q3 9:03TTUDonovan Smith 1 Yd Run (Jonathan Garibay Kick)7–20
- Q2 0:13TTUJonathan Garibay 26 Yd Field Goal 7–13
- Q2 14:08MSSTRara Thomas 17 Yd pass from Will Rogers (Nolan McCord Kick)7–10
- Q1 3:03TTUJonathan Garibay 31 Yd Field Goal 0–10
- Q1 12:40TTUTahj Brooks 19 Yd Run (Jonathan Garibay Kick)0–7
How the model called it
- PassWill Rogers 32/53, 290 YDS, 1 TD, 1 INT
- RushDillon Johnson 9 CAR, 62 YDS
- RecAustin Williams 5 REC, 74 YDS
- PassDonovan Smith 15/28, 252 YDS, 1 TD
- RushTahj Brooks 16 CAR, 107 YDS, 1 TD
- RecMyles Price 3 REC, 72 YDS
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsTTU up 20 entering the 4th quarter. Across 818 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q3 9:03TTU +29%
Donovan Smith run for 1 yd for a TD, (Jonathan Garibay KICK)
- Q2 14:08MSST +20%
Will Rogers pass complete to Rara Thomas for 17 yds for a TD, (Nolan McCord KICK)
- Q1 12:40TTU +17%
Tahj Brooks run for 19 yds for a TD, (Jonathan Garibay KICK)
- Q2 0:13TTU +11%
Jonathan Garibay 26 yd FG GOOD
- Q1 3:03TTU +10%
Jonathan Garibay 31 yd FG GOOD
- Q3 1:52TTU +9%
TEXAS TECH Penalty, False Start (Weston Wright) to the MisSt 20
FAQ
What was the final score of Mississippi State vs. Texas Tech?
Mississippi State 7, Texas Tech 34.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked MSST, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
| MSST | TTU | |
|---|---|---|
| 344 | Total yards | 512 |
| 290 | Passing yards | 252 |
| 54 | Rushing yards | 260 |
| 22 | First downs | 24 |
| 8-17 | 3rd down | 6-13 |
| 1-2 | 4th down | 0-1 |
| 32/53 | Comp/Att | 15/28 |
| 5.5 | Yards per pass | 9.0 |
| 2.7 | Yards per rush | 5.9 |
| 3 | Turnovers | 0 |
| 4-35 | Penalties | 6-50 |
| 28:41 | Possession | 31:19 |
Costliest call
Q3 4:06 MSST go for it on 4th & 16 at TTU 31. The model preferred field goal, a gap of 0.84 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 8:47TTUSaRodorick Thompson 1 Yd Run (Jonathan Garibay Kick)7–34
- Q3 0:02TTUJ.J. Sparkman 14 Yd pass from Donovan Smith (Jonathan Garibay Kick)7–27
- Q3 9:03TTUDonovan Smith 1 Yd Run (Jonathan Garibay Kick)7–20
- Q2 0:13TTUJonathan Garibay 26 Yd Field Goal 7–13
- Q2 14:08MSSTRara Thomas 17 Yd pass from Will Rogers (Nolan McCord Kick)7–10
- Q1 3:03TTUJonathan Garibay 31 Yd Field Goal 0–10
- Q1 12:40TTUTahj Brooks 19 Yd Run (Jonathan Garibay Kick)0–7
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (TTU Elo 1451, MSST Elo 1633 for reference), on a neutral field. That projects TTU +7.3 (32% to win) — 2.7 points clear of TTU's market line of +10. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2021
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles#10 of 112 in 2021 by biggest miss · #49 of 128 in 2021 by longest odds.
The 2021 upset archive →Mississippi State leads 4–3–1 · 75% have been one-possession games
| MSST | TTU | |
|---|---|---|
| +14.7 (#20) | CORE overall | +6.9 (#49) |
| +9 / -6 | offense / defense | +6 / -1 |
| 2.25 | points / drive | 2.67 |
| 2.33 | allowed / drive | 2.76 |
| 18% | three-and-outs | 24% |
| +28 | pass over expected | -1 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →