Notre Dame vs. Wisconsin: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
NDTeam statsWIS
- Q4 1:01NDDrew White 45 Yd Interception Return (Jonathan Doerer Kick)41–13
- Q4 2:13NDJack Kiser 66 Yd Interception Return (Jonathan Doerer Kick)34–13
- Q4 3:20NDJonathan Doerer 37 Yd Field Goal 27–13
- Q4 9:34NDKevin Austin Jr. 16 Yd pass from Drew Pyne (Jonathan Doerer Kick)24–13
- Q4 14:01NDChris Tyree 96 Yd Kickoff Return (Jonathan Doerer Kick)17–13
- Q4 14:14WISCollin Larsh 27 Yd Field Goal 10–13
- Q3 9:53WISKendric Pryor 8 Yd pass from Graham Mertz (Collin Larsh Kick)10–10
- Q2 4:48NDKevin Austin Jr. 36 Yd pass from Jack Coan (Jonathan Doerer Kick)10–3
- Q2 8:44NDJonathan Doerer 51 Yd Field Goal 3–3
- Q1 11:48WISCollin Larsh 37 Yd Field Goal 0–3
How the model called it
What the numbers say
- WIS lived on explosives rather than sustaining drives — a profile that vanished once those chunk plays were tackled. 15% explosive on a 36% success rate
- PassJack Coan 15/29, 158 YDS, 1 TD
- RushKyren Williams 18 CAR, 33 YDS
- RecKevin Austin Jr. 6 REC, 76 YDS, 2 TD
- PassGraham Mertz 18/41, 240 YDS, 1 TD, 4 INT
- RushChez Mellusi 18 CAR, 54 YDS
- RecKendric Pryor 6 REC, 69 YDS, 1 TD
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsTied entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,332 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q4 14:01ND +35%
Chris Tyree 96 Yd Kickoff Return (Jonathan Doerer Kick)
- Q3 9:53WIS +25%
Kendric Pryor 8 Yd pass from Graham Mertz (Collin Larsh Kick)
- Q2 4:48ND +21%
Kevin Austin Jr. 36 Yd pass from Jack Coan (Jonathan Doerer Kick)
- Q4 9:34ND +18%
Kevin Austin Jr. 16 Yd pass from Drew Pyne (Jonathan Doerer Kick)
- Q4 14:14WIS +16%
Collin Larsh 27 Yd Field Goal
- Q4 11:45ND +13%
Drew Pyne pass complete to Kevin Austin Jr. for 4 yds to the Wisc 41
FAQ
What was the final score of Notre Dame vs. Wisconsin?
Notre Dame 41, Wisconsin 13.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked WIS, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
| ND | WIS | |
|---|---|---|
| 242 | Total yards | 318 |
| 239 | Passing yards | 240 |
| 3 | Rushing yards | 78 |
| 17 | First downs | 16 |
| 5-16 | 3rd down | 1-14 |
| 1-1 | 4th down | 0-1 |
| 21/37 | Comp/Att | 18/41 |
| 6.5 | Yards per pass | 5.9 |
| 0.1 | Yards per rush | 2.8 |
| 1 | Turnovers | 5 |
| 11-93 | Penalties | 5-33 |
| 31:23 | Possession | 28:37 |
Costliest call
Q3 6:59 WIS punt on 4th & 2 at WIS 38. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 0.49 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 1:01NDDrew White 45 Yd Interception Return (Jonathan Doerer Kick)41–13
- Q4 2:13NDJack Kiser 66 Yd Interception Return (Jonathan Doerer Kick)34–13
- Q4 3:20NDJonathan Doerer 37 Yd Field Goal 27–13
- Q4 9:34NDKevin Austin Jr. 16 Yd pass from Drew Pyne (Jonathan Doerer Kick)24–13
- Q4 14:01NDChris Tyree 96 Yd Kickoff Return (Jonathan Doerer Kick)17–13
- Q4 14:14WISCollin Larsh 27 Yd Field Goal 10–13
- Q3 9:53WISKendric Pryor 8 Yd pass from Graham Mertz (Collin Larsh Kick)10–10
- Q2 4:48NDKevin Austin Jr. 36 Yd pass from Jack Coan (Jonathan Doerer Kick)10–3
- Q2 8:44NDJonathan Doerer 51 Yd Field Goal 3–3
- Q1 11:48WISCollin Larsh 37 Yd Field Goal 0–3
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (WIS Elo 1763, ND Elo 1774 for reference), on a neutral field. That projects WIS +0.4 (50% to win) — 6.4 points clear of ND's market line of -6. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2021
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles#16 of 112 in 2021 by biggest miss · #76 of 128 in 2021 by longest odds.
The 2021 upset archive →Notre Dame leads 9–6–2 · Notre Dame has won 2 straight · 18% have been one-possession games
| ND | WIS | |
|---|---|---|
| +15.9 (#13) | CORE overall | +18.1 (#10) |
| +5 / -11 | offense / defense | -2 / -20 |
| 2.66 | points / drive | 2.04 |
| 1.32 | allowed / drive | 1.13 |
| 26% | three-and-outs | 32% |
| +8 | pass over expected | -7 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →