#17Jack Coan

QB·Notre Dame·2021 20199.5 pts line valueDay 2 (Rds 2–3)

Jack Coan is a 2-year Clutch Passer for Notre Dame. Jack's 2021 season ranks in the 73th percentile nationally by opponent-adjusted EPA per play across 434 plays — a average rate for the QB.

What projects, and what doesn't · QBs · held out 2019-2025

How well one season predicts the next, measured on seasons the model never trained on. 1.00 would be perfectly predictable; 0.00 means last year told us nothing.

Usage share (volume)0.46
Beats guessing the QB average by 16%. n=2,421 QB seasons
EPA per play (efficiency)0.05
Not projectable — we do not forecast this. n=1,965 QB seasons
Total EPA (value)0.51
Beats guessing the QB average by 20%. n=1,965 QB seasons

Across all positions, usage carries year to year at 0.47 and efficiency at 0.07. So Jack Coan's projection is a projection of opportunity — how much of the offense he runs through. How well he converts it is something this model does not claim to know a year in advance, and the number above is why.

2021 Production

Passing

253/385 Comp/Att3150 Pass yards25 Pass TD7 INT65.7% Comp %

Rushing

-100 Rush yards2 Rush TD57 Carries-1.8 Yards/carry

Performance Analysis · 2021 · vs QB peers

Efficiency73
Volume100
Dual-Threat14
Consistency83
Clutch100

Player type

Clutch Passer

Elevates on passing downs — 3rd-and-medium, two-minute drills, and pressure situations are where this QB is best.

3rd-down precisionLate-game valueHigh passing-down EPA

Peer percentiles

Opponent-adjusted EPA (WEPA/play)73th %ile · average

Game-to-game consistency83th %ile · above avg

Key findings

▸High-volume role — one of the team's most-used QBs by play share.
▸High game-to-game consistency — reliable floor each week.
▸7 high-impact games (EPA/play > 0.4) this season — elite ceiling.
▸Particularly dangerous on passing downs — efficiency spikes in obvious pass situations.
▸Strong second-half surge — EPA/play improved 0.23 from the first to second half of the season.
▸Peak game: 0.67 EPA/play in Wk 12 vs Georgia Tech (SP+ -7).

NIL Market Tier· 2021

On3 valuation ↗

Starter

Meaningful starter. Local collective + position-group deals.

Tier is a model estimate based on position, school brand, performance rank, and usage — not a reported deal. NIL deals are private. For a real market valuation, see On3's NIL profile, which factors in social following and actual deal tracking.

Historical Comparables · QB · efficiency + volume + value

Players from 2013–2025 matched on EPA efficiency, play volume, and adjusted value tier — not just one metric.

Player	Team	Yr	Plays	WEPA/play	Line val	Total EPA
Stetson Bennett	Georgia	2022	509	0.635	12.5	323.0
Tanner Mordecai	SMU	2021	510	0.630	14.0	321.5
Ryan Higgins	Louisiana Tech	2016	571	0.586	13.7	334.6
Kaidon Salter	Liberty	2023	486	0.711	14.7	345.6
Malik Cunningham	Louisville	2021	502	0.681	14.7	341.6

Comps are statistical — efficiency, volume, and value tier all factor in. Style and conference context differ.

Game Log · box score + EPA, week by week

EPA per play · x-axis: weekabove 0 = added points · below = lost

Wk	Opponent	Result	Opp SP+	C/ATT	Pass Yds	Pass TD	INT	QBR	Rush Yds	Rush TD	EPA/play
1	@Florida State	W41-38	7.6	26/35	366	4	1	79.3	-3	0	0.42
2	vsToledo	W32-29	6.9	21/33	239	2	1	44.1	-24	0	0.38
3	vsPurdue	W27-13	10.3	15/30	223	2	0	57.1	-21	0	0.20
4	vsWisconsin	W41-13	20.1	15/29	158	1	0	57.6	-19	0	-0.02
5	vsCincinnati	L13-24	21.2	14/22	114	0	1	65.7	-7	0	-0.00
6	@Virginia Tech	W32-29	2.4	9/12	108	1	0	75.3	-11	0	0.59
8	vsUSC	W31-16	-0.6	20/28	189	1	1	77.4	-3	0	0.39
9	vsNorth Carolina	W44-34	6.4	16/24	213	1	0	90.0	28	1	0.63
10	vsNavy	W34-6	-8.5	23/29	269	1	0	42.2	-14	0	0.21
11	@Virginia	W28-3	7.2	15/20	132	3	1	82.9	7	0	0.47
12	vsGeorgia Tech	W55-0	-6.7	15/20	285	2	0	87.8	-14	0	0.67
13	@Stanford	W45-14	-10.2	26/35	345	2	1	82.9	-15	1	0.53
1	vsOklahoma State	L35-37	17.2	38/68	509	5	1	83.8	-4	0	0.45

Usage & Situational · Pro

Snap-share proxy

Overall

48.8%

Passing plays

85.7%

Rushing plays

6.0%

Standard downs

42.6%

Passing downs

62.3%

EPA by down type

Standard downs: 0.21
Passing downs: 0.61
Pass / Rush EPA: 0.39 / -0.03

Usage = share of team plays (CFBD has no true snap counts).

Career · rolling EPA, game by game

Per-game EPA5-game avg

EPA per play · 2019 — 2021 · 27 games

Season	Team	Line value	WEPA/play	YoY Δ	Total EPA
2019	Wisconsin	8.2	0.580	—	215.2
2021	Notre Dame	9.5	0.580	—	255.8

Chart shows per-game EPA (bars) and rolling 5-game average (line). Season breaks marked with dashed lines. Line value = est. points over replacement per game.