Minnesota vs. Colorado: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
MINNTeam statsCOLO
- Q4 5:09MINNKy Thomas 14 Yd Run (Matthew Trickett Kick)30–0
- Q4 9:53MINNMatthew Trickett 33 Yd Field Goal 23–0
- Q3 0:23MINNTreyson Potts 3 Yd Run (Matthew Trickett Kick)20–0
- Q2 5:38MINNTreyson Potts 2 Yd Run (Matthew Trickett Kick)13–0
- Q2 12:19MINNTreyson Potts 13 Yd Run (Matthew Trickett PAT failed)6–0
How the model called it
What the numbers say
- COLO played behind the sticks — third downs that long convert rarely, and MINN did not face the same ones. 3rd & 9.8 vs 3rd & 7.5
- PassTanner Morgan 11/17, 164 YDS
- RushTrey Potts 26 CAR, 121 YDS, 3 TD
- RecChris Autman-Bell 4 REC, 79 YDS
- PassBrendon Lewis 8/16, 55 YDS
- RushDrew Carter 2 CAR, 9 YDS
- RecBrenden Rice 3 REC, 25 YDS
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsMINN up 20 entering the 4th quarter. Across 818 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q2 12:19MINN +17%
Treyson Potts 13 Yd Run (Matthew Trickett PAT failed)
- Q2 5:38MINN +15%
Treyson Potts 2 Yd Run (Matthew Trickett Kick)
FAQ
What was the final score of Minnesota vs. Colorado?
Minnesota 30, Colorado 0.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (MINN) was correct.
| MINN | COLO | |
|---|---|---|
| 441 | Total yards | 63 |
| 164 | Passing yards | 82 |
| 277 | Rushing yards | -19 |
| 22 | First downs | 6 |
| 3-11 | 3rd down | 2-12 |
| 1-1 | 4th down | 0-2 |
| 11/17 | Comp/Att | 12/24 |
| 9.6 | Yards per pass | 3.4 |
| 5.2 | Yards per rush | -0.9 |
| 0 | Turnovers | 2 |
| 4-34 | Penalties | 3-30 |
| 40:13 | Possession | 19:47 |
Costliest call
Q1 1:47 COLO punt on 4th & 2 at COLO 28. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 0.48 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 5:09MINNKy Thomas 14 Yd Run (Matthew Trickett Kick)30–0
- Q4 9:53MINNMatthew Trickett 33 Yd Field Goal 23–0
- Q3 0:23MINNTreyson Potts 3 Yd Run (Matthew Trickett Kick)20–0
- Q2 5:38MINNTreyson Potts 2 Yd Run (Matthew Trickett Kick)13–0
- Q2 12:19MINNTreyson Potts 13 Yd Run (Matthew Trickett PAT failed)6–0
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (COLO Elo 1460, MINN Elo 1579 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects COLO +2.4 (45% to win) — 4.9 points clear of MINN's market line of -2.5. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2021
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles#19 of 112 in 2021 by biggest miss · #102 of 128 in 2021 by longest odds.
The 2021 upset archive →| MINN | COLO | |
|---|---|---|
| +12.4 (#30) | CORE overall | -17.1 (#109) |
| +3 / -10 | offense / defense | -13 / +4 |
| 2.35 | points / drive | 1.30 |
| 1.57 | allowed / drive | 2.46 |
| 21% | three-and-outs | 34% |
| -14 | pass over expected | -6 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →