Michigan vs. Wisconsin: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
MICHTeam statsWIS
- Q4 0:32WISClay Cundiff 25 Yd pass from Chase Wolf (Collin Larsh Kick)38–17
- Q4 5:07MICHDaylen Baldwin 56 Yd pass from J.J. McCarthy (Jake Moody Kick)38–10
- Q4 9:34MICHCornelius Johnson 13 Yd pass from Cade McNamara (Cade McNamara Pass to Cornelius Johnson for Two-Point Conversion)31–10
- Q4 12:21MICHJake Moody 48 Yd Field Goal 23–10
- Q3 8:26MICHJ.J. McCarthy 1 Yd Run (Jake Moody Kick)20–10
- Q2 0:07WISChimere Dike 18 Yd pass from Graham Mertz (Collin Larsh Kick)13–10
- Q2 0:27MICHJake Moody 47 Yd Field Goal 13–3
- Q2 2:32WISCollin Larsh 34 Yd Field Goal 10–3
- Q2 13:17MICHJake Moody 26 Yd Field Goal 10–0
- Q1 4:17MICHCornelius Johnson 34 Yd pass from Cade McNamara (Jake Moody Kick)7–0
How the model called it
- PassCade McNamara 17/28, 197 YDS, 2 TD
- RushHassan Haskins 19 CAR, 47 YDS
- RecRoman Wilson 6 REC, 81 YDS
- PassGraham Mertz 8/15, 115 YDS, 1 TD
- RushBraelon Allen 5 CAR, 19 YDS
- RecChimere Dike 2 REC, 54 YDS, 1 TD
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsMICH up 10 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,140 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q2 0:07WIS +20%
Graham Mertz pass complete to Chimere Dike for 18 yds for a TD (Collin Larsh KICK)
- Q3 8:26MICH +20%
J.J. McCarthy run for 1 yd for a TD (Jake Moody KICK)
- Q1 4:17MICH +18%
Cade McNamara pass complete to Cornelius Johnson for 34 yds for a TD (Jake Moody KICK)
- Q4 12:21MICH +9%
Jake Moody 48 yd FG GOOD
- Q2 0:27MICH +7%
Jake Moody 47 yd FG GOOD
- Q2 13:17MICH +7%
Jake Moody 26 yd FG GOOD
FAQ
What was the final score of Michigan vs. Wisconsin?
Michigan 38, Wisconsin 17.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (MICH) was correct.
| MICH | WIS | |
|---|---|---|
| 365 | Total yards | 210 |
| 253 | Passing yards | 167 |
| 112 | Rushing yards | 43 |
| 15 | First downs | 12 |
| 6-19 | 3rd down | 3-14 |
| 4-5 | 4th down | 1-1 |
| 18/30 | Comp/Att | 11/23 |
| 8.4 | Yards per pass | 7.3 |
| 2.5 | Yards per rush | 1.3 |
| 1 | Turnovers | 3 |
| 3-10 | Penalties | 1-5 |
| 34:38 | Possession | 25:22 |
Costliest call
Q3 0:55 MICH punt on 4th & 1 at MICH 36. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 0.83 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 0:32WISClay Cundiff 25 Yd pass from Chase Wolf (Collin Larsh Kick)38–17
- Q4 5:07MICHDaylen Baldwin 56 Yd pass from J.J. McCarthy (Jake Moody Kick)38–10
- Q4 9:34MICHCornelius Johnson 13 Yd pass from Cade McNamara (Cade McNamara Pass to Cornelius Johnson for Two-Point Conversion)31–10
- Q4 12:21MICHJake Moody 48 Yd Field Goal 23–10
- Q3 8:26MICHJ.J. McCarthy 1 Yd Run (Jake Moody Kick)20–10
- Q2 0:07WISChimere Dike 18 Yd pass from Graham Mertz (Collin Larsh Kick)13–10
- Q2 0:27MICHJake Moody 47 Yd Field Goal 13–3
- Q2 2:32WISCollin Larsh 34 Yd Field Goal 10–3
- Q2 13:17MICHJake Moody 26 Yd Field Goal 10–0
- Q1 4:17MICHCornelius Johnson 34 Yd pass from Cade McNamara (Jake Moody Kick)7–0
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (WIS Elo 1696, MICH Elo 1818 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects WIS +2.5 (45% to win) — 4.5 points clear of MICH's market line of -2. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2021
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles#53 of 112 in 2021 by biggest miss · #106 of 128 in 2021 by longest odds.
The 2021 upset archive →Michigan leads 53–17–1 · Michigan has won 2 straight · 27% have been one-possession games
| MICH | WIS | |
|---|---|---|
| +17.9 (#11) | CORE overall | +18.1 (#10) |
| +8 / -10 | offense / defense | -2 / -20 |
| 3.12 | points / drive | 2.04 |
| 1.46 | allowed / drive | 1.13 |
| 22% | three-and-outs | 32% |
| -2 | pass over expected | -7 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →