Rice vs. UAB: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
RICETeam statsUAB
- Q4 3:23UABMatt Quinn 33 Yd Field Goal 30–24
- Q4 5:52RICEChristian VanSickle 27 Yd Field Goal 30–21
- Q3 6:53UABGerrit Prince 72 Yd pass from Dylan Hopkins (Matt Quinn Kick)27–21
- Q3 7:40RICEJaeger Bull 1 Yd pass from Wiley Green (Christian VanSickle Kick)27–14
- Q2 3:23RICEAugust Pitre III 11 Yd pass from Wiley Green (Christian VanSickle Kick)20–14
- Q1 1:40UABDeWayne McBride 26 Yd Run (Matt Quinn Kick)13–14
- Q1 5:20UABDeWayne McBride 12 Yd Run (Matt Quinn Kick)13–7
- Q1 6:54RICEJaeger Bull 2 Yd pass from Wiley Green (Christian VanSickle PAT failed)13–0
- Q1 9:40RICEJordan Myers 1 Yd Run (Christian VanSickle Kick)7–0
How the model called it
What the numbers say
- UAB played behind the sticks — third downs that long convert rarely, and RICE did not face the same ones. 3rd & 8.8 vs 3rd & 6.5
- PassWiley Green 17/22, 205 YDS, 3 TD
- RushAri Broussard 16 CAR, 65 YDS
- RecAugust Pitre III 6 REC, 108 YDS, 1 TD
- PassDylan Hopkins 19/31, 318 YDS, 1 TD, 1 INT
- RushDeWayne McBride 8 CAR, 95 YDS, 2 TD
- RecGerrit Prince 4 REC, 114 YDS, 1 TD
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsRICE up 6 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,662 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q4 5:52RICE +34%
Christian VanSickle 27 yd FG GOOD
- Q3 7:40RICE +34%
Wiley Green pass complete to Jaeger Bull for 1 yd for a TD (Christian VanSickle KICK)
- Q3 6:53UAB +27%
Dylan Hopkins pass complete to Gerrit Prince for 72 yds for a TD (Matt Quinn KICK)
- Q4 3:17RICE +27%
Jordan Myers run for 2 yds to the Rice 28
- Q4 14:14UAB +21%
Wiley Green pass complete to Jake Bailey for 9 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST down
- Q2 3:23RICE +19%
Wiley Green pass complete to August Pitre III for 11 yds for a TD (Christian VanSickle KICK)
FAQ
What was the final score of Rice vs. UAB?
Rice 30, UAB 24.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked UAB, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
| RICE | UAB | |
|---|---|---|
| 346 | Total yards | 445 |
| 205 | Passing yards | 318 |
| 141 | Rushing yards | 127 |
| 19 | First downs | 15 |
| 6-16 | 3rd down | 2-9 |
| 5-5 | 4th down | 1-3 |
| 17/22 | Comp/Att | 19/32 |
| 9.3 | Yards per pass | 9.9 |
| 2.9 | Yards per rush | 5.8 |
| 2 | Turnovers | 2 |
| 2-30 | Penalties | 10-108 |
| 38:01 | Possession | 21:59 |
Costliest call
Q3 4:34 RICE punt on 4th & 1 at RICE 32. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 0.94 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 3:23UABMatt Quinn 33 Yd Field Goal 30–24
- Q4 5:52RICEChristian VanSickle 27 Yd Field Goal 30–21
- Q3 6:53UABGerrit Prince 72 Yd pass from Dylan Hopkins (Matt Quinn Kick)27–21
- Q3 7:40RICEJaeger Bull 1 Yd pass from Wiley Green (Christian VanSickle Kick)27–14
- Q2 3:23RICEAugust Pitre III 11 Yd pass from Wiley Green (Christian VanSickle Kick)20–14
- Q1 1:40UABDeWayne McBride 26 Yd Run (Matt Quinn Kick)13–14
- Q1 5:20UABDeWayne McBride 12 Yd Run (Matt Quinn Kick)13–7
- Q1 6:54RICEJaeger Bull 2 Yd pass from Wiley Green (Christian VanSickle PAT failed)13–0
- Q1 9:40RICEJordan Myers 1 Yd Run (Christian VanSickle Kick)7–0
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (UAB Elo 1563, RICE Elo 1089 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects UAB -21.4 (91% to win) — 2.1 points clear of RICE's market line of -23.5. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2021
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles#31 of 112 in 2021 by biggest miss · #8 of 128 in 2021 by longest odds.
The 2021 upset archive →UAB leads 7–6 · 54% have been one-possession games
| RICE | UAB | |
|---|---|---|
| -19.4 (#114) | CORE overall | +13.3 (#25) |
| -10 / +9 | offense / defense | +9 / -4 |
| 1.41 | points / drive | 2.54 |
| 2.95 | allowed / drive | 1.99 |
| 34% | three-and-outs | 34% |
| -5 | pass over expected | -5 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →