South Alabama vs. UL Monroe: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
USATeam statsULM
- Q4 6:28ULMCalum Sutherland 40 Yd Field Goal 31–41
- Q3 1:07ULMWill Derrick 81 Yd pass from Chandler Rogers (Calum Sutherland Kick)31–38
- Q3 3:57ULMFred Lloyd Jr. 21 Yd pass from Chandler Rogers (Calum Sutherland Kick)31–31
- Q3 6:28USAJalen Tolbert 40 Yd pass from Jake Bentley (Diego Guajardo Kick)31–24
- Q3 10:17USAJalen Tolbert 8 Yd pass from Jake Bentley (Diego Guajardo Kick)24–24
- Q2 0:04ULMBoogie Knight 9 Yd pass from Chandler Rogers (Calum Sutherland Kick)17–24
- Q2 1:24USALincoln Sefcik 12 Yd pass from Jake Bentley (Diego Guajardo Kick)17–17
- Q2 5:23ULMCalum Sutherland 39 Yd Field Goal 10–17
- Q2 9:13USADiego Guajardo 28 Yd Field Goal 10–14
- Q2 12:30ULMJared Sparks 12 Yd pass from Chandler Rogers (Calum Sutherland Kick)7–14
- Q1 4:18USAJalen Wayne 10 Yd pass from Jake Bentley (Diego Guajardo Kick)7–7
- Q1 12:37ULMAndrew Henry 20 Yd Run (Calum Sutherland Kick)0–7
How the model called it
- PassJake Bentley 30/41, 320 YDS, 4 TD, 2 INT
- RushTerrion Avery 14 CAR, 87 YDS
- RecJalen Tolbert 10 REC, 155 YDS, 2 TD
- RushAndrew Henry 18 CAR, 88 YDS, 1 TD
- RecWill Derrick 5 REC, 135 YDS, 1 TD
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsULM up 7 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,299 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q4 6:28ULM +35%
Calum Sutherland 40 yd FG GOOD
- Q3 1:07ULM +33%
Chandler Rogers pass complete to Will Derrick for 81 yds for a TD (Calum Sutherland KICK)
- Q2 0:04ULM +23%
Chandler Rogers pass complete to Boogie Knight for 9 yds for a TD (Calum Sutherland KICK) (Calum Sutherland KICK)
- Q3 3:57ULM +22%
Chandler Rogers pass complete to Fred Lloyd Jr. for 21 yds for a TD (Calum Sutherland KICK)
- Q3 10:17USA +21%
Jake Bentley pass complete to Jalen Tolbert for 8 yds for a TD (Diego Guajardo KICK)
- Q2 1:24USA +19%
Jake Bentley pass complete to Lincoln Sefcik for 12 yds for a TD (Diego Guajardo KICK)
FAQ
What was the final score of South Alabama vs. UL Monroe?
South Alabama 31, UL Monroe 41.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked USA, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
| USA | ULM | |
|---|---|---|
| 409 | Total yards | 555 |
| 320 | Passing yards | 369 |
| 89 | Rushing yards | 186 |
| 22 | First downs | 25 |
| 6-16 | 3rd down | 7-13 |
| 3-4 | 4th down | 0-1 |
| 30/41 | Comp/Att | 25/35 |
| 7.8 | Yards per pass | 10.5 |
| 2.8 | Yards per rush | 4.9 |
| 3 | Turnovers | 1 |
| 3-35 | Penalties | 3-45 |
| 34:18 | Possession | 25:42 |
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 6:28ULMCalum Sutherland 40 Yd Field Goal 31–41
- Q3 1:07ULMWill Derrick 81 Yd pass from Chandler Rogers (Calum Sutherland Kick)31–38
- Q3 3:57ULMFred Lloyd Jr. 21 Yd pass from Chandler Rogers (Calum Sutherland Kick)31–31
- Q3 6:28USAJalen Tolbert 40 Yd pass from Jake Bentley (Diego Guajardo Kick)31–24
- Q3 10:17USAJalen Tolbert 8 Yd pass from Jake Bentley (Diego Guajardo Kick)24–24
- Q2 0:04ULMBoogie Knight 9 Yd pass from Chandler Rogers (Calum Sutherland Kick)17–24
- Q2 1:24USALincoln Sefcik 12 Yd pass from Jake Bentley (Diego Guajardo Kick)17–17
- Q2 5:23ULMCalum Sutherland 39 Yd Field Goal 10–17
- Q2 9:13USADiego Guajardo 28 Yd Field Goal 10–14
- Q2 12:30ULMJared Sparks 12 Yd pass from Chandler Rogers (Calum Sutherland Kick)7–14
- Q1 4:18USAJalen Wayne 10 Yd pass from Jake Bentley (Diego Guajardo Kick)7–7
- Q1 12:37ULMAndrew Henry 20 Yd Run (Calum Sutherland Kick)0–7
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (ULM Elo 985, USA Elo 1420 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects ULM +15 (17% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2021
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles#51 of 112 in 2021 by biggest miss · #30 of 128 in 2021 by longest odds.
The 2021 upset archive →South Alabama leads 7–5 · South Alabama has won 4 straight · 17% have been one-possession games
| USA | ULM | |
|---|---|---|
| -10.4 (#98) | CORE overall | -18.5 (#110) |
| -9 / +2 | offense / defense | -13 / +5 |
| 2.19 | points / drive | 1.71 |
| 2.19 | allowed / drive | 2.85 |
| 21% | three-and-outs | 34% |
| +3 | pass over expected | -5 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →