Bowling Green vs. Buffalo: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
BGSUTeam statsBUF
- Q4 0:42BGSUMatt McDonald 47 Yd Run (Nate Needham Kick)56–44
- Q4 0:57BUFDominic Johnson 4 Yd pass from Matt Myers (Alex McNulty Kick)49–44
- Q4 2:12BGSUTerion Stewart 20 Yd Run (Nate Needham Kick)49–37
- Q4 6:54BUFMatt Myers 10 Yd Run (Alex McNulty Kick)42–37
- Q4 9:44BGSUTerion Stewart 77 Yd Run (Nate Needham Kick)42–30
- Q4 10:03BUFDylan McDuffie 13 Yd Run (Alex McNulty Kick)35–30
- Q4 13:58BGSUTyrone Broden 30 Yd pass from Matt McDonald (Nate Needham Kick)35–23
- Q3 3:09BUFMatt Myers 3 Yd Run (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)28–23
- Q3 7:35BUFDylan McDuffie 2 Yd Run (Alex McNulty Kick)28–17
- Q2 2:07BGSUTyrone Broden 64 Yd pass from Matt McDonald (Nate Needham Kick)28–10
- Q2 2:52BUFMike Washington 14 Yd Run (Alex McNulty Kick)21–10
- Q2 7:12BGSUChristian Sims 6 Yd pass from Matt McDonald (Nate Needham Kick)21–3
- Q2 11:36BUFAlex McNulty 50 Yd Field Goal 14–3
- Q1 3:31BGSUJhaylin Embry 1 Yd Run (Nate Needham Kick)14–0
- Q1 13:26BGSUChristian Sims 81 Yd pass from Matt McDonald (Nate Needham Kick)7–0
How the model called it
What the numbers say
- BGSU played behind the sticks — third downs that long convert rarely, and BUF did not face the same ones. 3rd & 10.4 vs 3rd & 6.6
- BGSU lived on explosives rather than sustaining drives — a profile that vanished once those chunk plays were tackled. 22% explosive on a 36% success rate
- PassMatt McDonald 13/19, 263 YDS, 4 TD
- RushTerion Stewart 11 CAR, 170 YDS, 2 TD
- RecTyrone Broden 4 REC, 110 YDS, 2 TD
- PassMatt Myers 12/24, 239 YDS, 1 TD, 1 INT
- RushDylan McDuffie 34 CAR, 166 YDS, 2 TD
- RecDominic Johnson 4 REC, 96 YDS, 1 TD
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsBGSU up 5 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,967 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q4 9:44BGSU +45%
Terion Stewart 77 Yd Run (Nate Needham Kick)
- Q4 13:58BGSU +38%
Tyrone Broden 30 Yd pass from Matt McDonald (Nate Needham Kick)
- Q4 6:54BUF +36%
Matt Myers 10 Yd Run (Alex McNulty Kick)
- Q4 2:17BGSU +32%
Terion Stewart run for 13 yds BOWLING GREEN Penalty, Offensive Holding (Austin Osborne) to the Buff 20
- Q4 10:03BUF +30%
Dylan McDuffie 13 Yd Run (Alex McNulty Kick)
- Q2 2:07BGSU +29%
Tyrone Broden 64 Yd pass from Matt McDonald (Nate Needham Kick)
FAQ
What was the final score of Bowling Green vs. Buffalo?
Bowling Green 56, Buffalo 44.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked BUF, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
| BGSU | BUF | |
|---|---|---|
| 484 | Total yards | 499 |
| 263 | Passing yards | 277 |
| 221 | Rushing yards | 222 |
| 11 | First downs | 36 |
| 4-11 | 3rd down | 8-19 |
| 1-1 | 4th down | 2-3 |
| 13/19 | Comp/Att | 17/35 |
| 13.8 | Yards per pass | 7.9 |
| 8.2 | Yards per rush | 3.5 |
| 0 | Turnovers | 2 |
| 15-177 | Penalties | 5-54 |
| 21:46 | Possession | 38:14 |
Costliest call
Q4 4:47 BGSU punt on 4th & 1 at BGSU 41. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 1.10 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 0:42BGSUMatt McDonald 47 Yd Run (Nate Needham Kick)56–44
- Q4 0:57BUFDominic Johnson 4 Yd pass from Matt Myers (Alex McNulty Kick)49–44
- Q4 2:12BGSUTerion Stewart 20 Yd Run (Nate Needham Kick)49–37
- Q4 6:54BUFMatt Myers 10 Yd Run (Alex McNulty Kick)42–37
- Q4 9:44BGSUTerion Stewart 77 Yd Run (Nate Needham Kick)42–30
- Q4 10:03BUFDylan McDuffie 13 Yd Run (Alex McNulty Kick)35–30
- Q4 13:58BGSUTyrone Broden 30 Yd pass from Matt McDonald (Nate Needham Kick)35–23
- Q3 3:09BUFMatt Myers 3 Yd Run (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)28–23
- Q3 7:35BUFDylan McDuffie 2 Yd Run (Alex McNulty Kick)28–17
- Q2 2:07BGSUTyrone Broden 64 Yd pass from Matt McDonald (Nate Needham Kick)28–10
- Q2 2:52BUFMike Washington 14 Yd Run (Alex McNulty Kick)21–10
- Q2 7:12BGSUChristian Sims 6 Yd pass from Matt McDonald (Nate Needham Kick)21–3
- Q2 11:36BUFAlex McNulty 50 Yd Field Goal 14–3
- Q1 3:31BGSUJhaylin Embry 1 Yd Run (Nate Needham Kick)14–0
- Q1 13:26BGSUChristian Sims 81 Yd pass from Matt McDonald (Nate Needham Kick)7–0
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (BUF Elo 1535, BGSU Elo 995 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects BUF -24 (93% to win) — 10.5 points clear of BUF's market line of -13.5. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2021
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles#47 of 112 in 2021 by biggest miss · #29 of 128 in 2021 by longest odds.
The 2021 upset archive →Bowling Green leads 13–9 · 36% have been one-possession games
| BGSU | BUF | |
|---|---|---|
| -22.1 (#116) | CORE overall | -20.2 (#115) |
| -20 / +2 | offense / defense | -8 / +12 |
| 1.61 | points / drive | 2.31 |
| 2.73 | allowed / drive | 2.98 |
| 32% | three-and-outs | 26% |
| +11 | pass over expected | -8 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →