Kansas vs. Texas: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
KUTeam statsTEX
- OT 0:00KUDevin Neal 2 Yd Run (Jalon Daniels Pass to Jared Casey for Two-Point Conversion)57–56
- OT 0:00TEXMarcus Washington 8 Yd pass from Casey Thompson (Cameron Dicker Kick)49–56
- Q4 0:22TEXCade Brewer 25 Yd pass from Casey Thompson (Cameron Dicker Kick)49–49
- Q4 4:39TEXXavier Worthy 8 Yd pass from Casey Thompson (Cameron Dicker Kick)49–42
- Q4 8:47KUKwamie Lassiter II 2 Yd pass from Jalon Daniels (Jacob Borcila Kick)49–35
- Q3 1:21TEXXavier Worthy 7 Yd pass from Casey Thompson (Cameron Dicker Kick)42–35
- Q3 3:50TEXBijan Robinson 25 Yd pass from Casey Thompson (Cameron Dicker Kick)42–28
- Q3 8:59KUDevin Neal 10 Yd Run (Jacob Borcila Kick)42–21
- Q3 11:17TEXCasey Thompson 1 Yd Run (Cameron Dicker Kick)35–21
- Q2 1:00KUJacobee Bryant 31 Yd Interception Return (Jacob Borcila Kick)35–14
- Q2 1:14KUDevin Neal 19 Yd pass from Jalon Daniels (Jacob Borcila Kick)28–14
- Q2 2:25KUJalon Daniels 9 Yd Run (Jacob Borcila Kick)21–14
- Q2 8:48TEXXavier Worthy 33 Yd pass from Hudson Card (Cameron Dicker Kick)14–14
- Q2 12:14TEXMarcus Washington 25 Yd pass from Casey Thompson (Cameron Dicker Kick)14–7
- Q1 0:36KUMason Fairchild 11 Yd pass from Jalon Daniels (Jacob Borcila Kick)14–0
- Q1 7:58KUDevin Neal 3 Yd Run (Jacob Borcila Kick)7–0
How the model called it
What the numbers say
- TEX played behind the sticks — third downs that long convert rarely, and KU did not face the same ones. 3rd & 8.6 vs 3rd & 6.0
- PassJalon Daniels 21/30, 202 YDS, 3 TD
- RushDevin Neal 24 CAR, 143 YDS, 3 TD
- RecKwamie Lassiter II 8 REC, 68 YDS, 1 TD
- PassCasey Thompson 30/43, 358 YDS, 6 TD, 1 INT
- RushBijan Robinson 14 CAR, 70 YDS
- RecXavier Worthy 14 REC, 152 YDS, 3 TD
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsKU up 7 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,299 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q4 0:00KU +92%
run for a loss of 1 yard to the Kans 24
- Q4 0:22TEX +92%
Casey Thompson pass complete to Cade Brewer for 25 yds for a TD, (Cameron Dicker KICK)
- OT 0:00TEX +90%
Marcus Washington 8 Yd pass from Casey Thompson (Cameron Dicker Kick)
- Q4 8:47KU +45%
Jalon Daniels pass complete to Kwamie Lassiter II for 2 yds for a TD, (Jacob Borcila KICK)
- Q3 1:21TEX +30%
Casey Thompson pass complete to Xavier Worthy for 7 yds for a TD, (Cameron Dicker KICK)
- Q3 8:59KU +30%
Devin Neal run for 10 yds for a TD, (Jacob Borcila KICK)
FAQ
What was the final score of Kansas vs. Texas?
Kansas 57, Texas 56.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked TEX, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
| KU | TEX | |
|---|---|---|
| 420 | Total yards | 574 |
| 202 | Passing yards | 410 |
| 218 | Rushing yards | 164 |
| 22 | First downs | 30 |
| 11-17 | 3rd down | 7-11 |
| 0-1 | 4th down | 0-0 |
| 21/31 | Comp/Att | 33/49 |
| 6.5 | Yards per pass | 8.4 |
| 5.1 | Yards per rush | 5.1 |
| 0 | Turnovers | 4 |
| 4-30 | Penalties | 10-97 |
| 35:18 | Possession | 24:42 |
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- OT 0:00KUDevin Neal 2 Yd Run (Jalon Daniels Pass to Jared Casey for Two-Point Conversion)57–56
- OT 0:00TEXMarcus Washington 8 Yd pass from Casey Thompson (Cameron Dicker Kick)49–56
- Q4 0:22TEXCade Brewer 25 Yd pass from Casey Thompson (Cameron Dicker Kick)49–49
- Q4 4:39TEXXavier Worthy 8 Yd pass from Casey Thompson (Cameron Dicker Kick)49–42
- Q4 8:47KUKwamie Lassiter II 2 Yd pass from Jalon Daniels (Jacob Borcila Kick)49–35
- Q3 1:21TEXXavier Worthy 7 Yd pass from Casey Thompson (Cameron Dicker Kick)42–35
- Q3 3:50TEXBijan Robinson 25 Yd pass from Casey Thompson (Cameron Dicker Kick)42–28
- Q3 8:59KUDevin Neal 10 Yd Run (Jacob Borcila Kick)42–21
- Q3 11:17TEXCasey Thompson 1 Yd Run (Cameron Dicker Kick)35–21
- Q2 1:00KUJacobee Bryant 31 Yd Interception Return (Jacob Borcila Kick)35–14
- Q2 1:14KUDevin Neal 19 Yd pass from Jalon Daniels (Jacob Borcila Kick)28–14
- Q2 2:25KUJalon Daniels 9 Yd Run (Jacob Borcila Kick)21–14
- Q2 8:48TEXXavier Worthy 33 Yd pass from Hudson Card (Cameron Dicker Kick)14–14
- Q2 12:14TEXMarcus Washington 25 Yd pass from Casey Thompson (Cameron Dicker Kick)14–7
- Q1 0:36KUMason Fairchild 11 Yd pass from Jalon Daniels (Jacob Borcila Kick)14–0
- Q1 7:58KUDevin Neal 3 Yd Run (Jacob Borcila Kick)7–0
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (TEX Elo 1776, KU Elo 963 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects TEX -34.9 (98% to win) — 3.9 points clear of TEX's market line of -31. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2021
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles#23 of 112 in 2021 by biggest miss · #2 of 128 in 2021 by longest odds.
The 2021 upset archive →Texas leads 18–4 · Texas has won 2 straight · 32% have been one-possession games
| KU | TEX | |
|---|---|---|
| -23.1 (#118) | CORE overall | +8.6 (#46) |
| -4 / +19 | offense / defense | +8 / -1 |
| 1.89 | points / drive | 2.77 |
| 3.96 | allowed / drive | 2.52 |
| 33% | three-and-outs | 32% |
| -8 | pass over expected | -2 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →