Utah State vs. San Diego State: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
USUTeam statsSDSU
- Q4 3:58USUJordan Nathan 0 Yd Run (Connor Coles Kick)46–13
- Q4 6:22SDSUJesse Matthews 5 Yd pass from Jalen Mayden (Matt Araiza Kick)39–13
- Q4 10:21USUJustin McGriff 9 Yd pass from Logan Bonner (Connor Coles Kick)39–6
- Q4 13:40USUConnor Coles 20 Yd Field Goal 32–6
- Q3 1:54USUBrandon Bowling 18 Yd pass from Logan Bonner (Connor Coles PAT blocked)29–6
- Q3 6:58SDSUMatt Araiza 36 Yd Field Goal 23–6
- Q3 11:38USUTeam Safety 23–3
- Q3 13:09USUBrandon Bowling 58 Yd pass from Logan Bonner (Connor Coles Kick)21–3
- Q2 1:01SDSUMatt Araiza 23 Yd Field Goal 14–3
- Q2 4:57USUCalvin Tyler Jr. 1 Yd Run (Connor Coles Kick)14–0
- Q2 9:06USUDerek Wright 5 Yd pass from Logan Bonner (Connor Coles Kick)7–0
How the model called it
What the numbers say
- SDSU lived on explosives rather than sustaining drives — a profile that vanished once those chunk plays were tackled. 13% explosive on a 34% success rate
- PassLogan Bonner 29/42, 318 YDS, 4 TD, 1 INT
- RushCalvin Tyler Jr. 17 CAR, 41 YDS, 1 TD
- RecBrandon Bowling 8 REC, 154 YDS, 2 TD
- PassJordon Brookshire 11/23, 117 YDS
- RushGreg Bell 11 CAR, 50 YDS
- RecJesse Matthews 8 REC, 82 YDS, 1 TD
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsUSU up 23 entering the 4th quarter. Across 836 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q2 9:06USU +22%
Derek Wright 5 Yd pass from Logan Bonner (Connor Coles Kick)
- Q2 4:57USU +20%
Calvin Tyler Jr. 1 Yd Run (Connor Coles Kick)
- Q3 13:09USU +17%
Brandon Bowling 58 Yd pass from Logan Bonner (Connor Coles Kick)
- Q2 1:01SDSU +8%
Matt Araiza 23 Yd Field Goal
- Q2 0:00USU +6%
Connor Coles 51 yd FG MISSED
FAQ
What was the final score of Utah State vs. San Diego State?
Utah State 46, San Diego State 13.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked SDSU, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
| USU | SDSU | |
|---|---|---|
| 383 | Total yards | 315 |
| 318 | Passing yards | 167 |
| 65 | Rushing yards | 148 |
| 23 | First downs | 17 |
| 8-16 | 3rd down | 1-14 |
| 2-2 | 4th down | 1-4 |
| 29/43 | Comp/Att | 16/29 |
| 7.4 | Yards per pass | 5.8 |
| 2.3 | Yards per rush | 3.8 |
| 1 | Turnovers | 2 |
| 4-42 | Penalties | 9-120 |
| 28:58 | Possession | 31:02 |
Costliest call
Q1 11:48 USU punt on 4th & 1 at USU 46. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 1.36 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 3:58USUJordan Nathan 0 Yd Run (Connor Coles Kick)46–13
- Q4 6:22SDSUJesse Matthews 5 Yd pass from Jalen Mayden (Matt Araiza Kick)39–13
- Q4 10:21USUJustin McGriff 9 Yd pass from Logan Bonner (Connor Coles Kick)39–6
- Q4 13:40USUConnor Coles 20 Yd Field Goal 32–6
- Q3 1:54USUBrandon Bowling 18 Yd pass from Logan Bonner (Connor Coles PAT blocked)29–6
- Q3 6:58SDSUMatt Araiza 36 Yd Field Goal 23–6
- Q3 11:38USUTeam Safety 23–3
- Q3 13:09USUBrandon Bowling 58 Yd pass from Logan Bonner (Connor Coles Kick)21–3
- Q2 1:01SDSUMatt Araiza 23 Yd Field Goal 14–3
- Q2 4:57USUCalvin Tyler Jr. 1 Yd Run (Connor Coles Kick)14–0
- Q2 9:06USUDerek Wright 5 Yd pass from Logan Bonner (Connor Coles Kick)7–0
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (SDSU Elo 1633, USU Elo 1462 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects SDSU -9.2 (74% to win) — 2.7 points clear of SDSU's market line of -6.5. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2021
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles#5 of 112 in 2021 by biggest miss · #72 of 128 in 2021 by longest odds · #40 of 62 in 2021 by biggest poll gap.
The 2021 upset archive →San Diego State leads 13–5 · Utah State has won 3 straight · 28% have been one-possession games
| USU | SDSU | |
|---|---|---|
| +2.0 (#65) | CORE overall | +9.6 (#42) |
| +1 / -1 | offense / defense | -5 / -14 |
| 2.47 | points / drive | 1.92 |
| 1.95 | allowed / drive | 1.38 |
| 24% | three-and-outs | 29% |
| +3 | pass over expected | -4 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →