South Alabama vs. Oklahoma State: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
USATeam statsOKST
- Q4 7:04USALa'Damian Webb 65 Yd Run (Diego Guajardo Kick)33–7
- Q4 9:04USADiego Guajardo 42 Yd Field Goal 26–7
- Q4 12:14OKSTJaden Nixon 2 Yd Run (Alex Hale Kick)23–7
- Q2 1:03USACaullin Lacy 57 Yd pass from Carter Bradley (Diego Guajardo Kick)23–0
- Q2 14:44USALa'Damian Webb 17 Yd Run (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)16–0
- Q1 1:01USACaullin Lacy 39 Yd pass from Carter Bradley (Diego Guajardo Kick)10–0
- Q1 6:18USADiego Guajardo 39 Yd Field Goal 3–0
How the model called it
- PassCarter Bradley 10/16, 152 YDS, 2 TD
- RushLa'Damian Webb 18 CAR, 151 YDS, 2 TD
- RecCaullin Lacy 5 REC, 104 YDS, 2 TD
- PassGunnar Gundy 9/18, 64 YDS
- RushElijah Collins 9 CAR, 31 YDS
- RecJaden Bray 5 REC, 42 YDS
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsUSA up 23 entering the 4th quarter. Across 834 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q1 1:01USA +21%
Carter Bradley pass complete to Caullin Lacy for 39 yds for a TD (Diego Guajardo KICK)
- Q2 14:44USA +16%
La'Damian Webb run for 17 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed )
- Q1 6:18USA +9%
Diego Guajardo 39 yd FG GOOD
- Q2 1:03USA +9%
Carter Bradley pass complete to Caullin Lacy for 57 yds for a TD (Diego Guajardo KICK)
FAQ
What was the final score of South Alabama vs. Oklahoma State?
South Alabama 33, Oklahoma State 7.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked OKST, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
| USA | OKST | |
|---|---|---|
| 395 | Total yards | 208 |
| 152 | Passing yards | 114 |
| 243 | Rushing yards | 94 |
| 18 | First downs | 14 |
| 6-14 | 3rd down | 4-15 |
| 0-0 | 4th down | 1-1 |
| 10/16 | Comp/Att | 16/35 |
| 9.5 | Yards per pass | 3.3 |
| 5.2 | Yards per rush | 3.2 |
| 0 | Turnovers | 2 |
| 8-40 | Penalties | 7-64 |
| 34:40 | Possession | 25:20 |
Costliest call
Q2 4:05 USA punt on 4th & 5 at USA 48. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 0.13 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 7:04USALa'Damian Webb 65 Yd Run (Diego Guajardo Kick)33–7
- Q4 9:04USADiego Guajardo 42 Yd Field Goal 26–7
- Q4 12:14OKSTJaden Nixon 2 Yd Run (Alex Hale Kick)23–7
- Q2 1:03USACaullin Lacy 57 Yd pass from Carter Bradley (Diego Guajardo Kick)23–0
- Q2 14:44USALa'Damian Webb 17 Yd Run (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)16–0
- Q1 1:01USACaullin Lacy 39 Yd pass from Carter Bradley (Diego Guajardo Kick)10–0
- Q1 6:18USADiego Guajardo 39 Yd Field Goal 3–0
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (OKST Elo 1550, USA Elo 1459 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects OKST -6 (67% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2023
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles#14 of 117 in 2023 by biggest miss · #54 of 127 in 2023 by longest odds.
The 2023 upset archive →| USA | OKST | |
|---|---|---|
| +11.0 (#30) | CORE overall | +4.5 (#47) |
| +6 / -5 | offense / defense | +3 / -1 |
| 2.80 | points / drive | 2.19 |
| 1.71 | allowed / drive | 2.32 |
| 22% | three-and-outs | 23% |
| -0 | pass over expected | +10 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →