#2Carter Bradley

QB·South Alabama·20227.4 pts line valueDay 3 (Rds 4–7)

Carter Bradley is a Dual-Threat QB for South Alabama. Carter's 2022 season ranks in the 28th percentile nationally by opponent-adjusted EPA per play across 477 plays — a developing rate for the QB.

What projects, and what doesn't · QBs · held out 2019-2025

How well one season predicts the next, measured on seasons the model never trained on. 1.00 would be perfectly predictable; 0.00 means last year told us nothing.

Usage share (volume)0.46
Beats guessing the QB average by 16%. n=2,421 QB seasons
EPA per play (efficiency)0.05
Not projectable — we do not forecast this. n=1,965 QB seasons
Total EPA (value)0.51
Beats guessing the QB average by 20%. n=1,965 QB seasons

Across all positions, usage carries year to year at 0.47 and efficiency at 0.07. So Carter Bradley's projection is a projection of opportunity — how much of the offense he runs through. How well he converts it is something this model does not claim to know a year in advance, and the number above is why.

2022 Production

Passing

276/426 Comp/Att3352 Pass yards28 Pass TD12 INT64.8% Comp %

Rushing

50 Rush yards2 Rush TD68 Carries0.7 Yards/carry

Performance Analysis · 2022 · vs QB peers

Efficiency28
Volume100
Dual-Threat54
Consistency88
Clutch68

Player type

Dual-Threat QB

A genuine rushing threat who stresses defenses horizontally. Extends plays with legs and forces extra gap assignments.

Rushing threatScrambles for valueStresses defensive structure

Peer percentiles

Opponent-adjusted EPA (WEPA/play)28th %ile · below avg

Game-to-game consistency88th %ile · above avg

Key findings

▸Below-average efficiency vs QB peers — value comes through volume, not per-play impact.
▸High-volume role — one of the team's most-used QBs by play share.
▸High game-to-game consistency — reliable floor each week.
▸7 high-impact games (EPA/play > 0.4) this season — elite ceiling.
▸Particularly dangerous on passing downs — efficiency spikes in obvious pass situations.
▸Peak game: 0.59 EPA/play in Wk 13 vs Old Dominion (SP+ -13).

NIL Market Tier· 2022

On3 valuation ↗

Starter

Meaningful starter. Local collective + position-group deals.

Tier is a model estimate based on position, school brand, performance rank, and usage — not a reported deal. NIL deals are private. For a real market valuation, see On3's NIL profile, which factors in social following and actual deal tracking.

Historical Comparables · QB · efficiency + volume + value

Players from 2013–2025 matched on EPA efficiency, play volume, and adjusted value tier — not just one metric.

Player	Team	Yr	Plays	WEPA/play	Line val	Total EPA
Stetson Bennett	Georgia	2022	509	0.635	12.5	323.0

Comps are statistical — efficiency, volume, and value tier all factor in. Style and conference context differ.

Game Log · box score + EPA, week by week

EPA per play · x-axis: weekabove 0 = added points · below = lost

Wk	Opponent	Result	Opp SP+	C/ATT	Pass Yds	Pass TD	INT	QBR	Rush Yds	Rush TD	EPA/play
1	vsNicholls	W48-7	—	17/25	260	3	0	44.7	10	1	0.51
2	@Central Michigan	W38-24	-14.0	26/41	354	3	1	81.2	8	0	0.43
3	@UCLA	L31-32	15.0	26/36	237	1	1	81.3	8	0	0.38
4	vsLouisiana Tech	W38-14	-17.8	14/21	178	3	1	64.3	5	0	0.50
5	@Louisiana	W20-17	2.0	18/41	245	0	1	33.6	6	1	0.17
7	vsUL Monroe	W41-34	-15.7	25/33	420	3	0	76.2	9	0	0.58
8	vsTroy	L6-10	8.1	29/40	224	0	1	43.1	-4	0	0.15
9	@Arkansas State	W31-3	-13.0	17/24	179	1	0	45.9	17	0	0.27
10	@Georgia Southern	W38-31	-6.4	16/27	193	1	2	24.2	-15	0	0.23
11	vsTexas State	W38-21	-11.5	20/34	274	4	0	78.1	-6	0	0.50
12	@Southern Miss	W27-20	-3.5	15/22	238	3	2	70.6	-5	0	0.46
13	vsOld Dominion	W27-20	-13.0	17/29	190	3	1	76.0	22	0	0.59
1	vsWestern Kentucky	L23-44	1.7	36/53	360	3	2	—	-5	0	0.19

Usage & Situational · Pro

Snap-share proxy

Overall

51.3%

Passing plays

94.8%

Rushing plays

10.4%

Standard downs

44.8%

Passing downs

65.5%

EPA by down type

Standard downs: 0.29
Passing downs: 0.43
Pass / Rush EPA: 0.36 / 0.17

Usage = share of team plays (CFBD has no true snap counts).

Career · rolling EPA, game by game

Per-game EPA5-game avg

EPA per play · 2022 · 13 games

Chart shows per-game EPA (bars) and rolling 5-game average (line). Season breaks marked with dashed lines. Line value = est. points over replacement per game.