Wyoming vs. Utah State: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
WYOTeam statsUSU
- Q4 6:13WYOJohn Hoyland 34 Yd Field Goal 44–17
- Q3 1:29WYOTitus Swen 98 Yd Run (John Hoyland Kick)41–17
- Q3 5:14WYOJohn Hoyland 24 Yd Field Goal 34–17
- Q3 11:56WYOTitus Swen 43 Yd Run (John Hoyland Kick)31–17
- Q2 0:07USUConnor Coles 36 Yd Field Goal 24–17
- Q2 1:48WYOJohn Hoyland 28 Yd Field Goal 24–14
- Q2 6:50WYOJoshua Cobbs 17 Yd pass from Levi Williams (John Hoyland Kick)21–14
- Q1 2:39USUDeven Thompkins 41 Yd pass from Logan Bonner (Connor Coles Kick)14–14
- Q1 3:25WYOCameron Stone 99 Yd Kickoff Return (John Hoyland Kick)14–7
- Q1 3:38USUBrandon Bowling 10 Yd pass from Logan Bonner (Connor Coles Kick)7–7
- Q1 7:47WYOIsaiah Neyor 40 Yd pass from Levi Williams (John Hoyland Kick)7–0
How the model called it
- PassLevi Williams 12/15, 242 YDS, 2 TD, 1 INT
- RushTitus Swen 15 CAR, 169 YDS, 2 TD
- RecIsaiah Neyor 4 REC, 125 YDS, 1 TD
- PassLogan Bonner 19/40, 181 YDS, 2 TD
- RushCalvin Tyler Jr. 18 CAR, 109 YDS
- RecDeven Thompkins 5 REC, 67 YDS, 1 TD
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsWYO up 24 entering the 4th quarter. Across 555 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q2 6:50WYO +22%
Levi Williams pass complete to Joshua Cobbs for 17 yds for a TD, (John Hoyland KICK)
- Q1 3:25USU +22%
Elelyon Noa run for 12 yds to the UthSt 47 for a 1ST down
- Q1 3:38USU +19%
Logan Bonner pass complete to Brandon Bowling for 10 yds for a TD, (Connor Coles KICK)
- Q1 3:25WYO +19%
Cameron Stone 99 Yd Kickoff Return (John Hoyland Kick)
- Q1 7:47WYO +19%
Levi Williams pass complete to Isaiah Neyor for 40 yds for a TD, (John Hoyland KICK)
- Q3 11:56WYO +17%
Titus Swen run for 43 yds for a TD, (John Hoyland KICK)
FAQ
What was the final score of Wyoming vs. Utah State?
Wyoming 44, Utah State 17.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked USU, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
| WYO | USU | |
|---|---|---|
| 604 | Total yards | 362 |
| 242 | Passing yards | 181 |
| 362 | Rushing yards | 181 |
| 22 | First downs | 23 |
| 4-11 | 3rd down | 5-15 |
| 1-1 | 4th down | 0-4 |
| 12/15 | Comp/Att | 19/42 |
| 16.1 | Yards per pass | 4.3 |
| 7.4 | Yards per rush | 5.8 |
| 1 | Turnovers | 3 |
| 7-73 | Penalties | 1-15 |
| 34:01 | Possession | 25:59 |
Costliest call
Q2 10:29 USU punt on 4th & 1 at USU 11. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 1.08 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 6:13WYOJohn Hoyland 34 Yd Field Goal 44–17
- Q3 1:29WYOTitus Swen 98 Yd Run (John Hoyland Kick)41–17
- Q3 5:14WYOJohn Hoyland 24 Yd Field Goal 34–17
- Q3 11:56WYOTitus Swen 43 Yd Run (John Hoyland Kick)31–17
- Q2 0:07USUConnor Coles 36 Yd Field Goal 24–17
- Q2 1:48WYOJohn Hoyland 28 Yd Field Goal 24–14
- Q2 6:50WYOJoshua Cobbs 17 Yd pass from Levi Williams (John Hoyland Kick)21–14
- Q1 2:39USUDeven Thompkins 41 Yd pass from Logan Bonner (Connor Coles Kick)14–14
- Q1 3:25WYOCameron Stone 99 Yd Kickoff Return (John Hoyland Kick)14–7
- Q1 3:38USUBrandon Bowling 10 Yd pass from Logan Bonner (Connor Coles Kick)7–7
- Q1 7:47WYOIsaiah Neyor 40 Yd pass from Levi Williams (John Hoyland Kick)7–0
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (USU Elo 1503, WYO Elo 1506 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects USU -2.3 (57% to win) — 3.2 points clear of WYO's market line of -5.5. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2021
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles#21 of 112 in 2021 by biggest miss · #80 of 128 in 2021 by longest odds.
The 2021 upset archive →Utah State leads 40–28–4 · 33% have been one-possession games
| WYO | USU | |
|---|---|---|
| +0.7 (#71) | CORE overall | +2.0 (#65) |
| +1 / +1 | offense / defense | +1 / -1 |
| 2.16 | points / drive | 2.47 |
| 2.02 | allowed / drive | 1.95 |
| 29% | three-and-outs | 24% |
| -11 | pass over expected | +3 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →