Northern Arizona vs. Arizona: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
Northern Arizona0-2
▸
Arizona0-2
Final
Arizona Stadium
NORTTeam statsARIZ
240Total yards363
92Pass257
148Rush106
15First downs19
4-153rd down3-14
3Turnovers3
34:41Possession25:01
- Q4 2:16ARIZBoobie Curry 3 Yd pass from Jordan McCloud (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)21–19
- Q4 7:53NORTHendrix Johnson 9 Yd pass from RJ Martinez (Luis Aguilar Kick)21–13
- Q3 4:16NORTKevin Daniels 12 Yd Run (Luis Aguilar Kick)14–13
- Q2 1:48NORTBrady Shough 28 Yd Interception Return (Luis Aguilar Kick)7–13
- Q2 13:05ARIZLucas Havrisik 24 Yd Field Goal 0–13
- Q1 2:05ARIZBoobie Curry 49 Yd pass from Will Plummer (Lucas Havrisik Kick)0–10
- Q1 5:13ARIZLucas Havrisik 31 Yd Field Goal 0–3
How the model called it
Market line
ARIZ −26.5
Against the number
NORT covered
line ARIZ −26.5
What the numbers say
- ARIZ played behind the sticks — third downs that long convert rarely, and NORT did not face the same ones. 3rd & 10.4 vs 3rd & 8.1
Kickoff158 plays →Final
Tap or hover on the chart to see play details
ARIZ (top)NORT (bottom)· colored dots = scoresFinal: ARIZ 0%
Closing line
ARIZ −26.5
Closing total
53.5
Model line
—
Actual result
NORT 21 – 19 ARIZ
consensus, liveARIZ −26.5total 53.5
Northern Arizona
- PassRJ Martinez 11/16, 88 YDS, 1 TD, 1 INT
- RushKevin Daniels 27 CAR, 127 YDS, 1 TD
- RecDraycen Hall 4 REC, 48 YDS
Arizona
- PassWill Plummer 19/34, 191 YDS, 1 TD, 2 INT
- RushDrake Anderson 12 CAR, 72 YDS
- RecStanley Berryhill 11 REC, 94 YDS
25.8sper snap · in line with the national 24.5s
fastnational avgslow
Snaps run
131
Points / snap
0.31
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsNORT up 1 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,678 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
53%
NORT went on to win
A genuinely vulnerable lead — comebacks are common
FAQ
What was the final score of Northern Arizona vs. Arizona?
Northern Arizona 21, Arizona 19.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked ARIZ, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
NORT
ARIZ
30%
Success rate
38%
-0.11
EPA / pass
-0.13
-0.05
EPA / rush
0.09
30%
Early-down success
43%
29%
Pass success
33%
31%
Rush success
46%
7%
Explosive play rate (15+ yds)
11%
26%
Stuffed rush rate
31%
35%
Pass rate
63%
8.1
Avg 3rd-down distance
10.4
NORT
8.1 yards to go on 3rd down
60 scrimmage snaps
ARIZ
10.4 yards to go on 3rd down
71 scrimmage snaps
| NORT | ARIZ | |
|---|---|---|
| 240 | Total yards | 363 |
| 92 | Passing yards | 257 |
| 148 | Rushing yards | 106 |
| 15 | First downs | 19 |
| 4-15 | 3rd down | 3-14 |
| 0-0 | 4th down | 0-1 |
| 12/20 | Comp/Att | 25/41 |
| 4.6 | Yards per pass | 6.3 |
| 3.3 | Yards per rush | 3.9 |
| 3 | Turnovers | 3 |
| 4-30 | Penalties | 7-70 |
| 34:41 | Possession | 25:01 |
NORT
8/9 with the model
−0.5 pts · −0.0% win prob
ARIZ
7/11 with the model
−1.8 pts · −0.0% win prob
Costliest call
Q2 10:01 ARIZ punt on 4th & 2 at NORT 49. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 1.03 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finishNORT 2/16 scoring drives← own end zone →ARIZ 5/16 scoring drives
ARIZPUNT3 pl, 0 yds· own 20Q1
NORTPUNT3 pl, 5 yds· own 36Q1
ARIZPUNT6 pl, 17 yds· own 7Q1
NORTPUNT4 pl, 4 yds· own 12Q1
ARIZFG4 pl, 5 yds· opp 18Q1
NORTPUNT3 pl, 2 yds· own 25Q1
ARIZTD4 pl, 68 yds· own 32Q1
NORTINT4 pl, 12 yds· own 25Q1
ARIZFG7 pl, 18 yds· opp 24Q1
NORTFUM4 pl, 45 yds· own 25Q2
ARIZPUNT5 pl, 21 yds· own 30Q2
NORTPUNT3 pl, 6 yds· own 20Q2
ARIZFUM1 pl, 2 yds· own 20Q2
NORTINT3 pl, 0 yds· opp 20Q2
ARIZPUNT4 pl, 20 yds· own 37Q2
NORTPUNT3 pl, 8 yds· own 20Q2
ARIZTD1 pl, 0 yds· own 26Q2
ARIZPUNT7 pl, 25 yds· own 33Q2
NORTEND1 pl, -2 yds· own 20Q2
NORTPUNT5 pl, 14 yds· own 25Q3
ARIZDOWNS9 pl, 58 yds· own 7Q3
NORTTD7 pl, 65 yds· own 35Q3
ARIZPUNT4 pl, 19 yds· own 25Q3
NORTPUNT4 pl, 10 yds· own 8Q3
ARIZPUNT3 pl, 0 yds· own 48Q3
NORTPUNT3 pl, 6 yds· own 20Q4
ARIZINT2 pl, 14 yds· own 28Q4
NORTTD10 pl, 60 yds· own 40Q4
ARIZPUNT3 pl, 1 yds· own 35Q4
NORTPUNT3 pl, 5 yds· own 18Q4
ARIZTD7 pl, 85 yds· own 15Q4
NORTEND5 pl, 12 yds· own 46Q4
- Q4 2:16ARIZBoobie Curry 3 Yd pass from Jordan McCloud (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)21–19
- Q4 7:53NORTHendrix Johnson 9 Yd pass from RJ Martinez (Luis Aguilar Kick)21–13
- Q3 4:16NORTKevin Daniels 12 Yd Run (Luis Aguilar Kick)14–13
- Q2 1:48NORTBrady Shough 28 Yd Interception Return (Luis Aguilar Kick)7–13
- Q2 13:05ARIZLucas Havrisik 24 Yd Field Goal 0–13
- Q1 2:05ARIZBoobie Curry 49 Yd pass from Will Plummer (Lucas Havrisik Kick)0–10
- Q1 5:13ARIZLucas Havrisik 31 Yd Field Goal 0–3
Model prediction
how the number is builtOne or both teams lack a power rating (often an FCS opponent), so the model prediction is low-confidence for this game.
The matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profilesNorthern Arizona were +26.5 — a 5% shot
#38 of 112 in 2021 by biggest miss · #6 of 128 in 2021 by longest odds.
The 2021 upset archive →Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →