UCF vs. Boise State: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
UCFTeam statsBOIS
- Q4 0:00UCFColton Boomer 40 Yd Field Goal18–16
- Q4 1:49BOISStefan Cobbs 28 Yd pass from Maddux Madsen (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)15–16
- Q4 7:55UCFRJ Harvey 5 Yd Run (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)15–10
- Q2 1:01UCFColton Boomer 55 Yd Field Goal 9–10
- Q2 3:14BOISJonah Dalmas 56 Yd Field Goal 6–10
- Q2 8:32UCFColton Boomer 33 Yd Field Goal 6–7
- Q1 4:20BOISAshton Jeanty 38 Yd pass from Taylen Green (Jonah Dalmas Kick)3–7
- Q1 7:27UCFColton Boomer 50 Yd Field Goal 3–0
How the model called it
- PassJohn Rhys Plumlee 16/24, 272 YDS, 2 INT
- RushJohn Rhys Plumlee 11 CAR, 73 YDS
- RecKobe Hudson 5 REC, 134 YDS
- PassTaylen Green 9/19, 144 YDS, 1 TD, 1 INT
- RushAshton Jeanty 24 CAR, 115 YDS
- RecAshton Jeanty 5 REC, 97 YDS, 1 TD
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsBOIS up 1 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,673 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q4 0:00UCF +45%
RJ Harvey run for 5 yds to the UCF 19
- Q4 7:55UCF +29%
RJ Harvey 5 Yd Run (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)
- Q4 15:00BOIS +26%
Maddux Madsen sacked for a loss of 10 yards to the BOIS 43
- Q1 4:20BOIS +19%
Taylen Green pass complete to Ashton Jeanty for 38 yds for a TD (Jonah Dalmas KICK)
- Q4 7:55UCF +18%
Maddux Madsen pass complete to Riley Smith for 8 yds to the BOIS 33
- Q2 3:14BOIS +15%
Jonah Dalmas 56 yd FG GOOD
FAQ
What was the final score of UCF vs. Boise State?
UCF 18, Boise State 16.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (UCF) was correct.
| UCF | BOIS | |
|---|---|---|
| 530 | Total yards | 384 |
| 272 | Passing yards | 211 |
| 258 | Rushing yards | 173 |
| 23 | First downs | 22 |
| 4-10 | 3rd down | 6-14 |
| 0-1 | 4th down | 1-1 |
| 16/24 | Comp/Att | 14/27 |
| 11.3 | Yards per pass | 7.8 |
| 6.3 | Yards per rush | 4.4 |
| 2 | Turnovers | 1 |
| 4-25 | Penalties | 4-39 |
| 28:03 | Possession | 31:57 |
Costliest call
Q3 2:02 UCF punt on 4th & 2 at UCF 44. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 0.75 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 0:00UCFColton Boomer 40 Yd Field Goal18–16
- Q4 1:49BOISStefan Cobbs 28 Yd pass from Maddux Madsen (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)15–16
- Q4 7:55UCFRJ Harvey 5 Yd Run (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)15–10
- Q2 1:01UCFColton Boomer 55 Yd Field Goal 9–10
- Q2 3:14BOISJonah Dalmas 56 Yd Field Goal 6–10
- Q2 8:32UCFColton Boomer 33 Yd Field Goal 6–7
- Q1 4:20BOISAshton Jeanty 38 Yd pass from Taylen Green (Jonah Dalmas Kick)3–7
- Q1 7:27UCFColton Boomer 50 Yd Field Goal 3–0
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (BOIS Elo 1540, UCF Elo 1668 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects BOIS +2.7 (44% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2023
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles| UCF | BOIS | |
|---|---|---|
| +11.4 (#29) | CORE overall | +7.9 (#37) |
| +9 / -2 | offense / defense | +10 / +2 |
| 2.71 | points / drive | 2.75 |
| 2.42 | allowed / drive | 2.18 |
| 20% | three-and-outs | 22% |
| -4 | pass over expected | -6 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →