Florida State vs. North Carolina: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
FSUTeam statsUNC
- Q4 2:47UNCTy Chandler 2 Yd Run (Josh Downs Pass to Antoine Green for Two-Point Conversion)35–25
- Q3 1:02FSUOntaria Wilson 6 Yd pass from Jordan Travis (Ryan Fitzgerald Kick)35–17
- Q3 7:43FSUJordan Travis 1 Yd Run (Ryan Fitzgerald Kick)28–17
- Q3 9:42UNCKamari Morales 21 Yd pass from Sam Howell (Grayson Atkins Kick)21–17
- Q2 0:53FSUOntaria Wilson 32 Yd pass from Jordan Travis (Ryan Fitzgerald Kick)21–10
- Q2 8:36FSUJordan Travis 53 Yd Run (Ryan Fitzgerald Kick)14–10
- Q2 10:29FSUMalik McClain 5 Yd pass from Jordan Travis (Ryan Fitzgerald Kick)7–10
- Q1 2:55UNCJosh Downs 33 Yd pass from Sam Howell (Grayson Atkins Kick)0–10
- Q1 10:27UNCGrayson Atkins 51 Yd Field Goal 0–3
How the model called it
- PassJordan Travis 11/13, 145 YDS, 3 TD
- RushJordan Travis 14 CAR, 121 YDS, 2 TD
- RecKeyshawn Helton 3 REC, 71 YDS
- PassSam Howell 17/32, 203 YDS, 2 TD, 1 INT
- RushSam Howell 11 CAR, 108 YDS
- RecJosh Downs 9 REC, 121 YDS, 1 TD
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsFSU up 18 entering the 4th quarter. Across 838 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q3 7:43FSU +36%
Jordan Travis 1 Yd Run (Ryan Fitzgerald Kick)
- Q2 0:53FSU +27%
Ontaria Wilson 32 Yd pass from Jordan Travis (Ryan Fitzgerald Kick)
- Q3 9:42UNC +25%
Kamari Morales 21 Yd pass from Sam Howell (Grayson Atkins Kick)
- Q3 1:02FSU +18%
Ontaria Wilson 6 Yd pass from Jordan Travis (Ryan Fitzgerald Kick)
- Q2 8:36FSU +16%
Jordan Travis 53 Yd Run (Ryan Fitzgerald Kick)
- Q4 1:48FSU +13%
Treshaun Ward run for 10 yds to the NCaro 26 for a 1ST down
FAQ
What was the final score of Florida State vs. North Carolina?
Florida State 35, North Carolina 25.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked UNC, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
| FSU | UNC | |
|---|---|---|
| 383 | Total yards | 432 |
| 145 | Passing yards | 203 |
| 238 | Rushing yards | 229 |
| 22 | First downs | 27 |
| 7-10 | 3rd down | 7-13 |
| 0-0 | 4th down | 0-1 |
| 11/13 | Comp/Att | 17/32 |
| 11.2 | Yards per pass | 6.3 |
| 5.8 | Yards per rush | 6.4 |
| 0 | Turnovers | 1 |
| 5-50 | Penalties | 12-110 |
| 29:48 | Possession | 30:12 |
Costliest call
Q4 8:12 FSU punt on 4th & 1 at FSU 28. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 1.05 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 2:47UNCTy Chandler 2 Yd Run (Josh Downs Pass to Antoine Green for Two-Point Conversion)35–25
- Q3 1:02FSUOntaria Wilson 6 Yd pass from Jordan Travis (Ryan Fitzgerald Kick)35–17
- Q3 7:43FSUJordan Travis 1 Yd Run (Ryan Fitzgerald Kick)28–17
- Q3 9:42UNCKamari Morales 21 Yd pass from Sam Howell (Grayson Atkins Kick)21–17
- Q2 0:53FSUOntaria Wilson 32 Yd pass from Jordan Travis (Ryan Fitzgerald Kick)21–10
- Q2 8:36FSUJordan Travis 53 Yd Run (Ryan Fitzgerald Kick)14–10
- Q2 10:29FSUMalik McClain 5 Yd pass from Jordan Travis (Ryan Fitzgerald Kick)7–10
- Q1 2:55UNCJosh Downs 33 Yd pass from Sam Howell (Grayson Atkins Kick)0–10
- Q1 10:27UNCGrayson Atkins 51 Yd Field Goal 0–3
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (UNC Elo 1727, FSU Elo 1346 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects UNC -17.6 (87% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2021
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles#41 of 112 in 2021 by biggest miss · #18 of 128 in 2021 by longest odds.
The 2021 upset archive →Florida State leads 17–4–1 · 23% have been one-possession games
| FSU | UNC | |
|---|---|---|
| +9.7 (#41) | CORE overall | +1.1 (#70) |
| +4 / -5 | offense / defense | +6 / +5 |
| 2.30 | points / drive | 2.89 |
| 2.16 | allowed / drive | 2.73 |
| 34% | three-and-outs | 21% |
| -2 | pass over expected | -2 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →