#7Sam Howell

QB·North Carolina·2021 2020 20197.8 pts line valueDay 3 (Rds 4–7)

Sam Howell is a 3-year Dual-Threat QB for North Carolina. Sam's 2021 season ranks in the 23th percentile nationally by opponent-adjusted EPA per play across 509 plays — a developing rate for the QB. Production has trended downward season-over-season on adjusted value metrics.

What projects, and what doesn't · QBs · held out 2019-2025

How well one season predicts the next, measured on seasons the model never trained on. 1.00 would be perfectly predictable; 0.00 means last year told us nothing.

Usage share (volume)0.46
Beats guessing the QB average by 16%. n=2,421 QB seasons
EPA per play (efficiency)0.05
Not projectable — we do not forecast this. n=1,965 QB seasons
Total EPA (value)0.51
Beats guessing the QB average by 20%. n=1,965 QB seasons

Across all positions, usage carries year to year at 0.47 and efficiency at 0.07. So Sam Howell's projection is a projection of opportunity — how much of the offense he runs through. How well he converts it is something this model does not claim to know a year in advance, and the number above is why.

Recruiting Profile· Class of 2019

★★★★★

4-Star · High major target

Stars: ★★★★★
247 composite: 0.9582
National rank: #93
High school: Sun Valley
Hometown: Monroe, NC

Recruiting data from CFBD/247Sports composite. Sourced from the player's signing-class team — transfers show original school's class.

2021 Production

Passing

217/347 Comp/Att3056 Pass yards24 Pass TD9 INT62.5% Comp %

Rushing

828 Rush yards11 Rush TD183 Carries4.5 Yards/carry

Punting

1 Punts35 Punt yards35.0 Yards/punt35 Long1 Inside 20

Performance Analysis · 2021 · vs QB peers

Efficiency23
Volume100
Dual-Threat100
Consistency80
Clutch100

Player type

Dual-Threat QB

A genuine rushing threat who stresses defenses horizontally. Extends plays with legs and forces extra gap assignments.

Rushing threatScrambles for valueStresses defensive structure

Peer percentiles

Opponent-adjusted EPA (WEPA/play)23th %ile · below avg

Game-to-game consistency80th %ile · above avg

Career trajectory:↓ Declining

Key findings

▸Below-average efficiency vs QB peers — value comes through volume, not per-play impact.
▸High-volume role — one of the team's most-used QBs by play share.
▸Production has slipped season-over-season on adjusted value metrics.
▸High game-to-game consistency — reliable floor each week.
▸4 high-impact games (EPA/play > 0.4) this season — elite ceiling.
▸Particularly dangerous on passing downs — efficiency spikes in obvious pass situations.
▸Production faded as the season progressed — 0.11 EPA/play decline from first to second half.
▸Peak game: 0.86 EPA/play in Wk 3 vs Virginia (SP+ 7).

NIL Market Tier· 2021

On3 valuation ↗

Starter

Meaningful starter. Local collective + position-group deals.

Tier is a model estimate based on position, school brand, performance rank, and usage — not a reported deal. NIL deals are private. For a real market valuation, see On3's NIL profile, which factors in social following and actual deal tracking.

Historical Comparables · QB · efficiency + volume + value

Players from 2013–2025 matched on EPA efficiency, play volume, and adjusted value tier — not just one metric.

Player	Team	Yr	Plays	WEPA/play	Line val	Total EPA
Stetson Bennett	Georgia	2022	509	0.635	12.5	323.0
Jordan Travis	Florida State	2021	690	0.476	10.1	328.3
Kyle McCord	Syracuse	2024	632	0.509	12.1	321.4
Sam Hartman	Wake Forest	2021	647	0.556	11.8	359.6
Trace McSorley	Penn State	2017	626	0.513	12.7	321.0

Comps are statistical — efficiency, volume, and value tier all factor in. Style and conference context differ.

Game Log · box score + EPA, week by week

EPA per play · x-axis: weekabove 0 = added points · below = lost

Wk	Opponent	Result	Opp SP+	C/ATT	Pass Yds	Pass TD	INT	QBR	Rush Yds	Rush TD	EPA/play
1	@Virginia Tech	L10-17	2.4	17/32	208	1	3	31.2	35	0	0.02
2	vsGeorgia State	W59-17	1.8	21/29	352	3	0	96.2	104	2	0.83
3	vsVirginia	W59-39	7.2	14/21	307	5	1	93.7	112	0	0.86
4	vsGeorgia Tech	L22-45	-6.7	25/39	306	2	0	30.6	8	1	0.28
5	vsDuke	W38-7	-13.5	18/32	321	3	0	55.9	29	0	0.34
6	vsFlorida State	L25-35	7.6	17/32	203	2	1	74.2	108	0	0.27
7	vsMiami	W45-42	10.8	17/26	154	2	1	84.0	98	2	0.34
9	@Notre Dame	L34-44	17.4	24/31	341	1	1	93.6	101	1	0.51
10	vsWake Forest	W58-55	10.1	16/26	216	1	0	89.2	104	2	0.52
11	@Pittsburgh	L23-30	17.6	22/33	296	2	1	68.4	28	1	0.25
13	@NC State	L30-34	16.1	14/26	147	1	1	76.7	98	2	0.11
1	vsSouth Carolina	L21-38	3.9	12/20	205	1	0	57.7	3	0	0.20

Usage & Situational · Pro

Snap-share proxy

Overall

63.5%

Passing plays

98.0%

Rushing plays

31.8%

Standard downs

55.6%

Passing downs

81.4%

EPA by down type

Standard downs: 0.23
Passing downs: 0.56
Pass / Rush EPA: 0.26 / 0.63

Usage = share of team plays (CFBD has no true snap counts).

Career · rolling EPA, game by game

Per-game EPA5-game avg

EPA per play · 2019 — 2021 · 37 games

Season	Team	Line value	WEPA/play	YoY Δ	Total EPA
2019	North Carolina	12.9	0.580	—	316.3
2020	North Carolina	11.3	0.581	+0.00	263.9
2021	North Carolina	7.8	0.480	-0.10	270.4

Chart shows per-game EPA (bars) and rolling 5-game average (line). Season breaks marked with dashed lines. Line value = est. points over replacement per game.