#10Sam Hartman

QB·Wake Forest·2023 2022 2021 202011.8 pts line valueDay 2 (Rds 2–3)

Sam Hartman is a 4-year Dual-Threat QB for Wake Forest. Sam's 2021 season ranks in the 57th percentile nationally by opponent-adjusted EPA per play across 599 plays — a average rate for the QB. Sam's production has improved each season, a positive development trajectory.

What projects, and what doesn't · QBs · held out 2019-2025

How well one season predicts the next, measured on seasons the model never trained on. 1.00 would be perfectly predictable; 0.00 means last year told us nothing.

Usage share (volume)0.46
Beats guessing the QB average by 16%. n=2,421 QB seasons
EPA per play (efficiency)0.05
Not projectable — we do not forecast this. n=1,965 QB seasons
Total EPA (value)0.51
Beats guessing the QB average by 20%. n=1,965 QB seasons

Across all positions, usage carries year to year at 0.47 and efficiency at 0.07. So Sam Hartman's projection is a projection of opportunity — how much of the offense he runs through. How well he converts it is something this model does not claim to know a year in advance, and the number above is why.

2021 Production

Passing

299/508 Comp/Att4228 Pass yards39 Pass TD14 INT58.9% Comp %

Rushing

363 Rush yards11 Rush TD117 Carries3.1 Yards/carry

Performance Analysis · 2021 · vs QB peers

Efficiency57
Volume100
Dual-Threat100
Consistency86
Clutch98

Player type

Dual-Threat QB

A genuine rushing threat who stresses defenses horizontally. Extends plays with legs and forces extra gap assignments.

Rushing threatScrambles for valueStresses defensive structure

Peer percentiles

Opponent-adjusted EPA (WEPA/play)57th %ile · average

Game-to-game consistency86th %ile · above avg

Career trajectory:↑ Rising

Key findings

▸High-volume role — one of the team's most-used QBs by play share.
▸Career trajectory is upward — WEPA value has improved season over season.
▸High game-to-game consistency — reliable floor each week.
▸9 high-impact games (EPA/play > 0.4) this season — elite ceiling.
▸Particularly dangerous on passing downs — efficiency spikes in obvious pass situations.
▸Production faded as the season progressed — 0.17 EPA/play decline from first to second half.
▸Peak game: 0.99 EPA/play in Wk 8 vs Army (SP+ 5).

NIL Market Tier· 2021

On3 valuation ↗

Star

Top-10 nationally. Multiple mid-to-large collective deals expected.

Tier is a model estimate based on position, school brand, performance rank, and usage — not a reported deal. NIL deals are private. For a real market valuation, see On3's NIL profile, which factors in social following and actual deal tracking.

Historical Comparables · QB · efficiency + volume + value

Players from 2013–2025 matched on EPA efficiency, play volume, and adjusted value tier — not just one metric.

Player	Team	Yr	Plays	WEPA/play	Line val	Total EPA
Kyle McCord	Syracuse	2024	632	0.509	12.1	321.4
Trace McSorley	Penn State	2017	626	0.513	12.7	321.0
Bailey Zappe	Western Kentucky	2021	620	0.600	13.3	372.0
Casey Thompson	Nebraska	2021	666	0.528	12.6	351.4
Sam Ehlinger	Texas	2019	652	0.535	13.2	349.0

Comps are statistical — efficiency, volume, and value tier all factor in. Style and conference context differ.

Game Log · box score + EPA, week by week

EPA per play · x-axis: weekabove 0 = added points · below = lost

Wk	Opponent	Result	Opp SP+	C/ATT	Pass Yds	Pass TD	INT	QBR	Rush Yds	Rush TD	EPA/play
1	vsOld Dominion	W42-10	-7.4	18/27	188	3	0	68.9	-1	0	0.35
2	vsNorfolk State	W41-16	—	17/25	244	1	0	86.2	30	1	0.65
3	vsFlorida State	W35-14	7.6	22/31	259	2	1	83.7	37	0	0.54
4	@Virginia	W37-17	7.2	17/29	270	3	0	88.8	16	0	0.66
5	vsLouisville	W37-34	7.8	23/40	324	2	1	72.2	35	1	0.32
6	@Syracuse	W40-37	0.3	19/32	330	3	1	81.6	7	1	0.54
8	@Army	W70-56	4.7	23/29	458	5	0	98.4	22	1	0.99
9	vsDuke	W45-7	-13.5	24/37	402	3	0	96.2	61	2	0.77
10	@North Carolina	L55-58	6.4	25/51	398	5	2	72.9	78	2	0.44
11	vsNC State	W45-42	16.1	20/47	290	3	3	72.9	43	1	0.25
12	@Clemson	L27-48	18.7	27/43	312	1	1	64.9	-37	0	0.19
13	@Boston College	W41-10	0.9	20/32	236	3	1	75.7	51	1	0.51
14	vsPittsburgh	L21-45	17.6	21/46	213	2	4	52.3	0	1	0.07
1	vsRutgers	W38-10	-3.0	23/39	304	3	0	81.3	21	0	0.59

Usage & Situational · Pro

Snap-share proxy

Overall

57.8%

Passing plays

98.2%

Rushing plays

15.8%

Standard downs

50.7%

Passing downs

74.7%

EPA by down type

Standard downs: 0.33
Passing downs: 0.62
Pass / Rush EPA: 0.42 / 0.60

Usage = share of team plays (CFBD has no true snap counts).

Career · rolling EPA, game by game

Per-game EPA5-game avg

EPA per play · 2020 — 2023 · 47 games

Season	Team	Line value	WEPA/play	YoY Δ	Total EPA
2020	Wake Forest	5.5	0.432	—	144.0
2021	Wake Forest	11.8	0.556	+0.12	359.6
2022	Wake Forest	12.8	0.553	-0.00	319.9
2023	Notre Dame	8.9	0.650	+0.10	208.6

Chart shows per-game EPA (bars) and rolling 5-game average (line). Season breaks marked with dashed lines. Line value = est. points over replacement per game.