Wake Forest vs. Virginia: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
WAKETeam statsUVA
- Q4 12:56WAKENick Sciba 35 Yd Field Goal 37–17
- Q3 1:42WAKEA.T. Perry 12 Yd pass from Sam Hartman (Nick Sciba Kick)34–17
- Q3 5:02UVADontayvion Wicks 22 Yd pass from Brennan Armstrong (Brendan Farrell Kick)27–17
- Q3 9:02WAKEBlake Whiteheart 12 Yd pass from Sam Hartman (Nick Sciba Kick)27–10
- Q3 12:37UVAJelani Woods 17 Yd pass from Brennan Armstrong (Justin Duenkel Kick)20–10
- Q2 1:31WAKENick Sciba 23 Yd Field Goal 20–3
- Q2 9:25WAKEJustice Ellison 1 Yd Run (Nick Sciba Kick)17–3
- Q2 12:07UVAJustin Duenkel 21 Yd Field Goal 10–3
- Q1 2:34WAKENick Sciba 46 Yd Field Goal 10–0
- Q1 12:19WAKETaylor Morin 39 Yd pass from Sam Hartman (Nick Sciba Kick)7–0
How the model called it
What the numbers say
- UVA played behind the sticks — third downs that long convert rarely, and WAKE did not face the same ones. 3rd & 10.2 vs 3rd & 5.8
- PassSam Hartman 17/29, 270 YDS, 3 TD
- RushJustice Ellison 13 CAR, 86 YDS, 1 TD
- RecJaquarii Roberson 4 REC, 91 YDS
- PassBrennan Armstrong 33/59, 407 YDS, 2 TD, 1 INT
- RushMike Hollins 6 CAR, 36 YDS
- RecDontayvion Wicks 8 REC, 114 YDS, 1 TD
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsWAKE up 17 entering the 4th quarter. Across 841 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q1 12:19WAKE +17%
Sam Hartman pass complete to Taylor Morin for 39 yds for a TD, (Nick Sciba KICK)
- Q3 9:02WAKE +16%
Sam Hartman pass complete to Blake Whiteheart for 12 yds for a TD, (Nick Sciba KICK)
- Q2 9:25WAKE +15%
Justice Ellison 1 Yd Run (Nick Sciba Kick)
- Q3 12:37UVA +12%
Brennan Armstrong pass complete to Jelani Woods for 17 yds for a TD, (Justin Duenkel KICK)
- Q3 5:02UVA +12%
B. Armstrong pass,to D. Wicks for 22 yds for a TD, (J. Duenkel KICK), (B. Farrell KICK)
- Q3 1:42WAKE +9%
Sam Hartman pass complete to A.T. Perry for 12 yds for a TD, (Nick Sciba KICK)
FAQ
What was the final score of Wake Forest vs. Virginia?
Wake Forest 37, Virginia 17.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked UVA, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
| WAKE | UVA | |
|---|---|---|
| 473 | Total yards | 506 |
| 270 | Passing yards | 407 |
| 203 | Rushing yards | 99 |
| 24 | First downs | 31 |
| 7-16 | 3rd down | 8-16 |
| 1-1 | 4th down | 0-3 |
| 17/29 | Comp/Att | 33/59 |
| 9.3 | Yards per pass | 6.9 |
| 4.5 | Yards per rush | 3.7 |
| 0 | Turnovers | 2 |
| 5-40 | Penalties | 11-83 |
| 29:27 | Possession | 30:33 |
Costliest call
Q4 10:14 UVA go for it on 4th & 18 at WAKE 33. The model preferred field goal, a gap of 0.91 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 12:56WAKENick Sciba 35 Yd Field Goal 37–17
- Q3 1:42WAKEA.T. Perry 12 Yd pass from Sam Hartman (Nick Sciba Kick)34–17
- Q3 5:02UVADontayvion Wicks 22 Yd pass from Brennan Armstrong (Brendan Farrell Kick)27–17
- Q3 9:02WAKEBlake Whiteheart 12 Yd pass from Sam Hartman (Nick Sciba Kick)27–10
- Q3 12:37UVAJelani Woods 17 Yd pass from Brennan Armstrong (Justin Duenkel Kick)20–10
- Q2 1:31WAKENick Sciba 23 Yd Field Goal 20–3
- Q2 9:25WAKEJustice Ellison 1 Yd Run (Nick Sciba Kick)17–3
- Q2 12:07UVAJustin Duenkel 21 Yd Field Goal 10–3
- Q1 2:34WAKENick Sciba 46 Yd Field Goal 10–0
- Q1 12:19WAKETaylor Morin 39 Yd pass from Sam Hartman (Nick Sciba Kick)7–0
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (UVA Elo 1543, WAKE Elo 1609 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects UVA +0.2 (51% to win) — 3.7 points clear of WAKE's market line of -3.5. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2021
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles#50 of 112 in 2021 by biggest miss · #93 of 128 in 2021 by longest odds.
The 2021 upset archive →Virginia leads 34–18 · 50% have been one-possession games
| WAKE | UVA | |
|---|---|---|
| +2.3 (#63) | CORE overall | -1.0 (#75) |
| +7 / +5 | offense / defense | +11 / +12 |
| 3.14 | points / drive | 2.91 |
| 2.30 | allowed / drive | 2.95 |
| 28% | three-and-outs | 23% |
| +7 | pass over expected | +17 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →