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Justice Ellison
Justice Ellison

#6Justice Ellison

RB·Wake Forest·2023

Justice Ellison is a Committee Back for Wake Forest. Justice's 2023 season ranks in the 0th percentile nationally by opponent-adjusted EPA per play across 127 plays — a developing rate for the RB.

What projects, and what doesn't · RBs · held out 2019-2025

How well one season predicts the next, measured on seasons the model never trained on. 1.00 would be perfectly predictable; 0.00 means last year told us nothing.

  • Usage share (volume)0.52
    Beats guessing the RB average by 18%. n=4,219 RB seasons
  • EPA per play (efficiency)0.10
    Not projectable — we do not forecast this. n=3,575 RB seasons
  • Total EPA (value)0.41
    Beats guessing the RB average by 9%. n=3,575 RB seasons

Across all positions, usage carries year to year at 0.47 and efficiency at 0.07. So Justice Ellison's projection is a projection of opportunity — how much of the offense he runs through. How well he converts it is something this model does not claim to know a year in advance, and the number above is why.

2023 Production

Rushing
548 Rush yards1 Rush TD120 Carries4.6 Yards/carry
Receiving
10 Receptions61 Rec yards0 Rec TD6.1 Yards/rec

Performance Analysis · 2023 · vs RB peers

  • Efficiency0
  • Volume52
  • Explosiveness32
  • Consistency0
  • Receiving31
Player type
Committee Back

Part of a rotation — contributes in a complementary role and keeps the featured back fresh.

Rotational roleSituational use
Peer percentiles
Opponent-adjusted EPA (WEPA/play)0th %ile · below avg
Game-to-game consistency0th %ile · below avg
Key findings
  • ▸Below-average efficiency vs RB peers — value comes through volume, not per-play impact.
  • ▸High game-to-game variance — boom-or-bust profile.
  • ▸Particularly dangerous on passing downs — efficiency spikes in obvious pass situations.
  • ▸Strong second-half surge — EPA/play improved 0.56 from the first to second half of the season.
  • ▸Peak game: 2.36 EPA/play in Wk 11 vs NC State (SP+ 7).

NIL Market Tier· 2023

On3 valuation ↗
Contributor

Rotational contributor. Smaller collective or local deals.

Tier is a model estimate based on position, school brand, performance rank, and usage — not a reported deal. NIL deals are private. For a real market valuation, see On3's NIL profile, which factors in social following and actual deal tracking.

Game Log · box score + EPA, week by week

+2.360−2.36Wk 1 vs Elon: -0.25 EPA/play1Wk 3 vs Old Dominion: +0.01 EPA/play3Wk 4 vs Georgia Tech: +0.44 EPA/play4Wk 6 vs Clemson: -0.30 EPA/play6Wk 7 vs Virginia Tech: -0.09 EPA/play7Wk 8 vs Pittsburgh: -0.18 EPA/play8Wk 9 vs Florida State: +0.36 EPA/play9Wk 10 vs Duke: -0.10 EPA/play10Wk 11 vs NC State: +2.36 EPA/play11Wk 12 vs Notre Dame: -0.13 EPA/play12Wk 13 vs Syracuse: +0.13 EPA/play13
EPA per play · x-axis: weekabove 0 = added points · below = lost
WkOpponentResultOpp SP+CarRush YdsAvgRush TDRecRec YdsRec TDEPA/play
1vsElonW37-17—10272.70250-0.25
3@Old DominionW27-24-10.116865.402500.01
4vsGeorgia TechL16-300.3181377.601800.44
6@ClemsonL12-1710.5133.00———-0.30
7@Virginia TechL13-305.811353.203200-0.09
8vsPittsburghW21-17-7.320603.00150-0.18
9vsFlorida StateL16-4119.410777.70———0.36
10@DukeL21-249.47223.10———-0.10
11vsNC StateL6-267.4100.0011802.36
12@Notre DameL7-4520.115634.20———-0.13
13@SyracuseL31-35-4.411383.51———0.13

Usage & Situational · Pro

Snap-share proxy
Overall
18.2%
Passing plays
3.1%
Rushing plays
31.7%
Standard downs
22.5%
Passing downs
9.0%
EPA by down type
Standard downs
-0.00
Passing downs
0.27
Pass / Rush EPA
0.40 / 0.01

Usage = share of team plays (CFBD has no true snap counts).

EPA = expected points added (opponent-adjusted). NIL estimates are model-based ranges, not reported deals. Data: CollegeFootballData. Not betting advice.