App State vs. Louisiana: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
APPTeam statsUL
- Q4 8:16ULEmani Bailey 26 Yd Run (Nate Snyder Kick)13–41
- Q4 10:38ULMontrell Johnson 2 Yd Run (Nate Snyder Kick)13–34
- Q3 8:19APPChase Brice 7 Yd Run (Chandler Staton Kick)13–27
- Q3 13:11ULChris Smith 21 Yd Run (Nate Snyder Kick)6–27
- Q2 0:44APPChandler Staton 27 Yd Field Goal 6–20
- Q1 0:13ULChris Smith 1 Yd Run (Nate Snyder PAT failed)3–20
- Q1 3:22ULKyren Lacy 2 Yd pass from Levi Lewis (Nate Snyder Kick)3–14
- Q1 5:58APPChandler Staton 31 Yd Field Goal 3–7
- Q1 10:45ULLevi Lewis 3 Yd Run (Nate Snyder Kick)0–7
How the model called it
- PassChase Brice 15/26, 133 YDS, 2 INT
- RushNate Noel 17 CAR, 42 YDS
- RecMalik Williams 6 REC, 38 YDS
- PassLevi Lewis 15/25, 209 YDS, 1 TD, 1 INT
- RushMontrell Johnson Jr. 14 CAR, 103 YDS, 1 TD
- RecKyren Lacy 2 REC, 57 YDS, 1 TD
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsUL up 14 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,012 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q1 10:45UL +17%
Levi Lewis 3 Yd Run (Nate Snyder Kick)
- Q1 3:22UL +16%
Kyren Lacy 2 Yd pass from Levi Lewis (Nate Snyder Kick)
- Q1 0:13UL +10%
Chris Smith 1 Yd Run (Nate Snyder PAT failed)
- Q1 5:58APP +7%
Chandler Staton 31 Yd Field Goal
- Q3 8:19APP +7%
Chase Brice 5 Yd Run (Chandler Staton Kick)
- Q3 13:11UL +6%
Chris Smith 21 Yd Run (Nate Snyder Kick)
FAQ
What was the final score of App State vs. Louisiana?
App State 13, Louisiana 41.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (UL) was correct.
| APP | UL | |
|---|---|---|
| 211 | Total yards | 455 |
| 133 | Passing yards | 209 |
| 78 | Rushing yards | 246 |
| 15 | First downs | 23 |
| 0-11 | 3rd down | 8-15 |
| 3-3 | 4th down | 1-1 |
| 15/26 | Comp/Att | 15/25 |
| 5.1 | Yards per pass | 8.4 |
| 2.7 | Yards per rush | 5.6 |
| 4 | Turnovers | 1 |
| 5-43 | Penalties | 9-97 |
| 23:28 | Possession | 36:32 |
Costliest call
Q3 3:32 APP punt on 4th & 14 at UL 36. The model preferred field goal, a gap of 0.75 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 8:16ULEmani Bailey 26 Yd Run (Nate Snyder Kick)13–41
- Q4 10:38ULMontrell Johnson 2 Yd Run (Nate Snyder Kick)13–34
- Q3 8:19APPChase Brice 7 Yd Run (Chandler Staton Kick)13–27
- Q3 13:11ULChris Smith 21 Yd Run (Nate Snyder Kick)6–27
- Q2 0:44APPChandler Staton 27 Yd Field Goal 6–20
- Q1 0:13ULChris Smith 1 Yd Run (Nate Snyder PAT failed)3–20
- Q1 3:22ULKyren Lacy 2 Yd pass from Levi Lewis (Nate Snyder Kick)3–14
- Q1 5:58APPChandler Staton 31 Yd Field Goal 3–7
- Q1 10:45ULLevi Lewis 3 Yd Run (Nate Snyder Kick)0–7
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (UL Elo 1669, APP Elo 1700 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects UL -1.2 (54% to win) — 5.7 points clear of UL's market line of +4.5. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2021
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles#22 of 112 in 2021 by biggest miss · #89 of 128 in 2021 by longest odds.
The 2021 upset archive →App State leads 8–4 · Louisiana has won 4 straight · 25% have been one-possession games
| APP | UL | |
|---|---|---|
| +15.1 (#17) | CORE overall | +5.3 (#52) |
| +5 / -10 | offense / defense | +1 / -4 |
| 2.73 | points / drive | 2.82 |
| 1.75 | allowed / drive | 1.74 |
| 22% | three-and-outs | 28% |
| -3 | pass over expected | -2 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →