#1Levi Lewis

QB·Louisiana·2020 20195.7 pts line valueDay 3 (Rds 4–7)

Levi Lewis is a 2-year Dual-Threat QB for Louisiana. Levi's 2020 season ranks in the 33th percentile nationally by opponent-adjusted EPA per play across 346 plays — a developing rate for the QB.

What projects, and what doesn't · QBs · held out 2019-2025

How well one season predicts the next, measured on seasons the model never trained on. 1.00 would be perfectly predictable; 0.00 means last year told us nothing.

Usage share (volume)0.46
Beats guessing the QB average by 16%. n=2,421 QB seasons
EPA per play (efficiency)0.05
Not projectable — we do not forecast this. n=1,965 QB seasons
Total EPA (value)0.51
Beats guessing the QB average by 20%. n=1,965 QB seasons

Across all positions, usage carries year to year at 0.47 and efficiency at 0.07. So Levi Lewis's projection is a projection of opportunity — how much of the offense he runs through. How well he converts it is something this model does not claim to know a year in advance, and the number above is why.

2020 Production

Passing

176/295 Comp/Att2270 Pass yards19 Pass TD7 INT59.7% Comp %

Rushing

335 Rush yards5 Rush TD55 Carries6.1 Yards/carry

Performance Analysis · 2020 · vs QB peers

Efficiency33
Volume100
Dual-Threat100
Consistency86
Clutch100

Player type

Dual-Threat QB

A genuine rushing threat who stresses defenses horizontally. Extends plays with legs and forces extra gap assignments.

Rushing threatScrambles for valueStresses defensive structure

Peer percentiles

Opponent-adjusted EPA (WEPA/play)33th %ile · below avg

Game-to-game consistency86th %ile · above avg

Key findings

▸Below-average efficiency vs QB peers — value comes through volume, not per-play impact.
▸High-volume role — one of the team's most-used QBs by play share.
▸High game-to-game consistency — reliable floor each week.
▸5 high-impact games (EPA/play > 0.4) this season — elite ceiling.
▸Particularly dangerous on passing downs — efficiency spikes in obvious pass situations.
▸Peak game: 0.62 EPA/play in Wk 7 vs Coastal Carolina (SP+ 7).

Game Log · box score + EPA, week by week

EPA per play · x-axis: weekabove 0 = added points · below = lost

Wk	Opponent	Result	Opp SP+	C/ATT	Pass Yds	Pass TD	INT	Rush Yds	Rush TD	EPA/play
2	@Iowa State	W31-14	13.3	13/21	154	1	0	-2	0	0.29
3	@Georgia State	W34-31	-5.7	21/37	279	2	2	6	0	0.13
4	vsGeorgia Southern	W20-18	0.2	18/32	290	1	1	15	0	0.42
7	vsCoastal Carolina	L27-30	6.6	14/23	173	1	1	84	1	0.62
8	@UAB	W24-20	6.3	12/20	152	2	0	34	0	0.34
9	@Texas State	W44-34	-13.4	22/32	332	2	1	12	1	0.48
10	vsArkansas State	W27-20	-6.5	17/29	244	1	1	26	1	0.28
11	vsSouth Alabama	W38-10	-11.3	21/31	252	3	1	3	0	0.56
13	@UL Monroe	W70-20	-18.4	18/25	147	3	0	55	2	0.58
14	@App State	W24-21	10.3	8/23	101	1	0	77	0	0.14
1	vsUTSA	W31-24	-9.6	12/22	146	2	0	25	0	0.23

Usage & Situational · Pro

Snap-share proxy

Overall

47.5%

Passing plays

95.2%

Rushing plays

12.4%

Standard downs

42.4%

Passing downs

59.2%

EPA by down type

Standard downs: 0.24
Passing downs: 0.56
Pass / Rush EPA: 0.32 / 0.59

Usage = share of team plays (CFBD has no true snap counts).

Career · rolling EPA, game by game

Per-game EPA5-game avg

EPA per play · 2019 — 2020 · 25 games

Season	Team	Line value	WEPA/play	YoY Δ	Total EPA
2019	Louisiana	6.2	0.461	—	213.0
2020	Louisiana	5.7	0.451	-0.01	168.1

Chart shows per-game EPA (bars) and rolling 5-game average (line). Season breaks marked with dashed lines. Line value = est. points over replacement per game.