#1Levi Lewis

QB·Louisiana·2020 20196.2 pts line valueDay 3 (Rds 4–7)

Levi Lewis is a 2-year Dual-Threat QB for Louisiana. Levi's 2019 season ranks in the 38th percentile nationally by opponent-adjusted EPA per play across 437 plays — a developing rate for the QB.

What projects, and what doesn't · QBs · held out 2019-2025

How well one season predicts the next, measured on seasons the model never trained on. 1.00 would be perfectly predictable; 0.00 means last year told us nothing.

Usage share (volume)0.46
Beats guessing the QB average by 16%. n=2,421 QB seasons
EPA per play (efficiency)0.05
Not projectable — we do not forecast this. n=1,965 QB seasons
Total EPA (value)0.51
Beats guessing the QB average by 20%. n=1,965 QB seasons

Across all positions, usage carries year to year at 0.47 and efficiency at 0.07. So Levi Lewis's projection is a projection of opportunity — how much of the offense he runs through. How well he converts it is something this model does not claim to know a year in advance, and the number above is why.

2019 Production

Passing

243/377 Comp/Att3050 Pass yards26 Pass TD4 INT64.5% Comp %

Rushing

195 Rush yards3 Rush TD69 Carries2.8 Yards/carry

Performance Analysis · 2019 · vs QB peers

Efficiency38
Volume100
Dual-Threat85
Consistency80
Clutch100

Player type

Dual-Threat QB

A genuine rushing threat who stresses defenses horizontally. Extends plays with legs and forces extra gap assignments.

Rushing threatScrambles for valueStresses defensive structure

Peer percentiles

Opponent-adjusted EPA (WEPA/play)38th %ile · below avg

Game-to-game consistency80th %ile · above avg

Key findings

▸Below-average efficiency vs QB peers — value comes through volume, not per-play impact.
▸High-volume role — one of the team's most-used QBs by play share.
▸High game-to-game consistency — reliable floor each week.
▸6 high-impact games (EPA/play > 0.4) this season — elite ceiling.
▸Particularly dangerous on passing downs — efficiency spikes in obvious pass situations.
▸Strong second-half surge — EPA/play improved 0.16 from the first to second half of the season.
▸Peak game: 0.84 EPA/play in Wk 3 vs Texas Southern.

Game Log · box score + EPA, week by week

EPA per play · x-axis: weekabove 0 = added points · below = lost

Wk	Opponent	Result	Opp SP+	C/ATT	Pass Yds	Pass TD	INT	QBR	Rush Yds	Rush TD	EPA/play
1	vsMississippi State	L28-38	3.5	24/39	267	1	1	48.3	-10	1	0.33
2	vsLiberty	W35-14	-2.6	15/23	179	2	1	85.6	25	1	0.14
3	vsTexas Southern	W77-6	—	10/13	181	2	0	97.2	5	0	0.84
4	@Ohio	W45-25	3.7	19/29	188	2	0	46.1	-5	0	0.17
5	@Georgia Southern	W37-24	-4.5	11/18	165	1	0	92.2	27	0	0.50
7	vsApp State	L7-17	11.3	13/24	131	1	0	51.3	-16	0	-0.09
8	@Arkansas State	W37-20	-2.9	17/24	181	0	1	83.0	36	0	0.34
10	vsTexas State	W31-3	-16.2	13/21	183	2	0	—	40	0	0.57
11	@Coastal Carolina	W48-7	-12.8	26/30	296	3	0	—	13	1	0.78
12	@South Alabama	W37-27	-20.3	16/28	136	2	0	—	7	0	0.18
13	vsTroy	W53-3	-4.4	21/33	273	1	0	—	-10	0	0.30
14	vsUL Monroe	W31-30	-10.7	15/23	270	3	0	—	15	0	0.72
15	@App State	L38-45	11.3	24/46	354	4	1	—	6	0	0.20
1	vsMiami (OH)	W27-17	-9.2	19/26	246	2	0	—	62	0	0.63

Usage & Situational · Pro

Snap-share proxy

Overall

44.3%

Passing plays

91.6%

Rushing plays

10.2%

Standard downs

37.7%

Passing downs

63.1%

EPA by down type

Standard downs: 0.14
Passing downs: 0.75
Pass / Rush EPA: 0.37 / 0.32

Usage = share of team plays (CFBD has no true snap counts).

Career · rolling EPA, game by game

Per-game EPA5-game avg

EPA per play · 2019 — 2020 · 25 games

Season	Team	Line value	WEPA/play	YoY Δ	Total EPA
2019	Louisiana	6.2	0.461	—	213.0
2020	Louisiana	5.7	0.451	-0.01	168.1

Chart shows per-game EPA (bars) and rolling 5-game average (line). Season breaks marked with dashed lines. Line value = est. points over replacement per game.