Oregon State vs. USC: Final Score, Recap & Advanced Stats

Oregon State2-1

▸

USC2-1

Final

Los Angeles Memorial ColiseumConference game

	1	2	3	4	T
ORST	7	14	14	10	45
USC	7	10	0	10	27

ORSTTeam statsUSC

535Total yards431

213Pass355

322Rush76

31First downs32

5-103rd down7-13

2Turnovers4

34:39Possession25:21

Q4 0:58ORSTEverett Hayes 42 Yd Field Goal 45–27
Q4 6:29USCParker Lewis 46 Yd Field Goal 42–27
Q4 10:26USCKeaontay Ingram 3 Yd Run (Parker Lewis Kick)42–24
Q4 14:14ORSTJack Colletto 1 Yd Run (Everett Hayes Kick)42–17
Q3 6:33ORSTJack Colletto 1 Yd Run (Everett Hayes Kick)35–17
Q3 12:06ORSTTyjon Lindsey 17 Yd pass from Chance Nolan (Everett Hayes Kick)28–17
Q2 0:00USCParker Lewis 26 Yd Field Goal 21–17
Q2 0:44ORSTTre'Shaun Harrison 36 Yd pass from Chance Nolan (Everett Hayes Kick)21–14
Q2 2:50ORSTTyjon Lindsey 13 Yd pass from Chance Nolan (Everett Hayes Kick)14–14
Q2 13:23USCKeaontay Ingram 9 Yd Run (Parker Lewis Kick)7–14
Q1 8:14USCGary Bryant Jr. 7 Yd pass from Kedon Slovis (Parker Lewis Kick)7–7
Q1 9:58ORSTTeagan Quitoriano 27 Yd pass from Chance Nolan (Everett Hayes Kick)7–0

How the model called it

Model line

USC −11.1

market USC −11

Biggest swing

ORST +29%

Q2 0:44

Against the number

ORST covered

line USC −11

USC favored ↑50%ORST favored ↓

GridpexORST 100%

Closing line

USC −11

Closing total

63.0

Model line

USC −11.1

Actual result

ORST 45 – 27 USC

consensus, liveUSC −11total 63.0

Oregon State

PassChance Nolan 15/19, 213 YDS, 4 TD, 2 INT
RushB.J. Baylor 23 CAR, 158 YDS
RecTyjon Lindsey 5 REC, 102 YDS, 2 TD

USC

PassKedon Slovis 31/49, 355 YDS, 1 TD, 3 INT
RushKeaontay Ingram 14 CAR, 79 YDS, 2 TD
RecDrake London 10 REC, 165 YDS

22.7sper snap · faster the national 24.5s

fastnational avgslow

Snaps run

152

Points / snap

0.47

This exact spot, historically

empirical, no ratings

ORST up 18 entering the 4th quarter. Across 838 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):

97%

ORST went on to win

A near-lock historically

Most comparable games

WWisconsin vs Buffalo38-17 WKansas State vs Troy42-13 WTCU vs Nicholls41-6 WLafayette vs Columbia24-3 WTulane vs Southern Miss21-3

Q2 0:44ORST +29%
Chance Nolan pass complete to Tre'Shaun Harrison for 36 yds for a TD (Everett Hayes KICK) (Everett Hayes KICK) (Everett Hayes KICK)
Q3 12:06ORST +25%
Chance Nolan pass complete to Tyjon Lindsey for 17 yds for a TD (Everett Hayes KICK)
Q2 2:50ORST +18%
Chance Nolan pass complete to Tyjon Lindsey for 13 yds for a TD (Everett Hayes KICK)
Q1 9:58ORST +17%
Chance Nolan pass complete to Teagan Quitoriano for 27 yds for a TD (Everett Hayes KICK)
Q1 8:14USC +17%
Kedon Slovis pass complete to Gary Bryant Jr. for 7 yds for a TD (Parker Lewis KICK)
Q3 6:33ORST +15%
Jack Colletto run for 1 yd for a TD (Everett Hayes KICK)

FAQ

What was the final score of Oregon State vs. USC?

Oregon State 45, USC 27.

Did Gridpex's model pick hit?

No — the model picked USC, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.

ORST

USC

61%

Success rate

58%

0.89

EPA / pass

0.27

0.32

EPA / rush

0.18

62%

Early-down success

57%

64%

Pass success

51%

60%

Rush success

76%

14%

Explosive play rate (15+ yds)

14%

15%

Stuffed rush rate

30%

Pass rate

73%

6.2

Avg 3rd-down distance

7.9

ORST

6.2 yards to go on 3rd down

74 scrimmage snaps

USC

7.9 yards to go on 3rd down

78 scrimmage snaps

ORST		USC
535	Total yards	431
213	Passing yards	355
322	Rushing yards	76
31	First downs	32
5-10	3rd down	7-13
1-1	4th down	0-0
15/19	Comp/Att	31/49
11.2	Yards per pass	7.2
6.3	Yards per rush	3.5
2	Turnovers	4
14-154	Penalties	11-98
34:39	Possession	25:21

Model prediction

how the number is built

Power rating (Elo)

USC 1688

ORST 1471

Projected spread

USC -11.1

incl. home edge

Model pick

USC

78% to win

Market spread

USC -11

sportsbook line

Model vs market

Agrees

aligned w/ market

Win prob: model / mkt

78%

USC · market 78%

Our model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (USC Elo 1688, ORST Elo 1471 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects USC -11.1 (78% to win), essentially in line with the market.

Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).

Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation

Season form — 2021

nationally ranked

ORST2021 season · national rank shownUSC

429.342nd

Total yards / game

443.924th

6.420th

Yards / play

5.959th

216.980th

Passing yards / game

298.317th

212.419th

Rushing yards / game

145.681st

49.7%7th

3rd down %

44.7%22nd

387.473rd

Yards allowed / game

409.088th

50.3%127th

3rd down % allowed

42.8%103rd

+157th

Turnover margin

-171st

6.892nd

Penalties / game

7.9120th

The matchup, in context

series history + adjusted profiles

Oregon State were +11 — a 25% shot

#35 of 112 in 2021 by biggest miss · #39 of 128 in 2021 by longest odds.

The 2021 upset archive →

The series79 meetings since 1916

USC leads 64–11–4 · 30% have been one-possession games

Opponent-adjusted profile2021

ORST		USC
+10.1 (#35)	CORE overall	-4.0 (#84)
+11 / +1	offense / defense	+2 / +6
2.86	points / drive	2.38
2.66	allowed / drive	2.94
19%	three-and-outs	19%
-6	pass over expected	+7

Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.

CORE ratings →Drive efficiency →Play-calling →

Pro

Key matchups

The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.

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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →

Game Info

Kickoff: Sat, Sep 25, 10:30 PM EDT
Venue: Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum
Setting: Conference game
Model line: USC -11.1

The Model's Pick

USC

to win · 78%

✗ Miss

Projected spreadUSC -11.1

Market78%

Game Leaders

Oregon State

Pass Chance Nolan15/19, 213 yds, 4 TD, 2 INT
Rush B.J. Baylor23 car, 158 yds
Rec Tyjon Lindsey5 rec, 102 yds, 2 TD

USC

Pass Kedon Slovis31/49, 355 yds, 1 TD, 3 INT
Rush Keaontay Ingram14 car, 79 yds, 2 TD
Rec Drake London10 rec, 165 yds

Biggest Plays

Oregon State+3.6 EPA
B.J. Baylor run for 40 yds to the USC 40 for a 1ST down
USC+3.4 EPA
Kedon Slovis pass complete to Drake London for 26 yds to the OrgSt 45 for a 1ST down
USC+3.2 EPA
Kedon Slovis pass complete to Drake London for 32 yds to the OrgSt 37 for a 1ST down OREGON ST Penalty, Face Mask (15 yards) (Alex Austin) to the OrgSt 48 for a 1ST down

ORSTTeam statsUSC

Scoring plays

How the model called it

Win probability

How the line closed

Leaders

Tempo

This exact spot, historically

Fourth downs

What decided it

FAQ

What was the final score of Oregon State vs. USC?

Did Gridpex's model pick hit?

Situational splits

Team stats

Fourth downs

Drive chart

Scoring plays

Model prediction

Season form — 2021

The matchup, in context

Key matchups

Oregon State vs. USC: Final Score & Recap

ORSTTeam statsUSC

How the model called it

What was the final score of Oregon State vs. USC?

Did Gridpex's model pick hit?

Key matchups