#4B.J. Baylor

RB·Oregon State·20212.4 pts line valueDay 3 (Rds 4–7)

B.J. Baylor is a Featured Back for Oregon State. B.J.'s 2021 season ranks in the 25th percentile nationally by opponent-adjusted EPA per play across 218 plays — a developing rate for the RB.

What projects, and what doesn't · RBs · held out 2019-2025

How well one season predicts the next, measured on seasons the model never trained on. 1.00 would be perfectly predictable; 0.00 means last year told us nothing.

Usage share (volume)0.52
Beats guessing the RB average by 18%. n=4,219 RB seasons
EPA per play (efficiency)0.10
Not projectable — we do not forecast this. n=3,575 RB seasons
Total EPA (value)0.41
Beats guessing the RB average by 9%. n=3,575 RB seasons

Across all positions, usage carries year to year at 0.47 and efficiency at 0.07. So B.J. Baylor's projection is a projection of opportunity — how much of the offense he runs through. How well he converts it is something this model does not claim to know a year in advance, and the number above is why.

2021 Production

Rushing

1337 Rush yards13 Rush TD227 Carries5.9 Yards/carry

Receiving

8 Receptions75 Rec yards0 Rec TD9.4 Yards/rec

Performance Analysis · 2021 · vs RB peers

Efficiency25
Volume74
Explosiveness58
Consistency50
Receiving18

Player type

Featured Back

The centerpiece of the run game — high carry volume, used in early downs and goal-line, true workhorse role.

Primary ball carrierHigh volumeGoal-line threat

Peer percentiles

Opponent-adjusted EPA (WEPA/play)25th %ile · below avg

Game-to-game consistency50th %ile · average

Key findings

▸Below-average efficiency vs RB peers — value comes through volume, not per-play impact.
▸Production faded as the season progressed — 0.55 EPA/play decline from first to second half.
▸Peak game: 2.29 EPA/play in Wk 2 vs Hawai'i (SP+ -2).

NIL Market Tier· 2021

On3 valuation ↗

Starter

Meaningful starter. Local collective + position-group deals.

Tier is a model estimate based on position, school brand, performance rank, and usage — not a reported deal. NIL deals are private. For a real market valuation, see On3's NIL profile, which factors in social following and actual deal tracking.

Historical Comparables · RB · efficiency + volume + value

Players from 2013–2025 matched on EPA efficiency, play volume, and adjusted value tier — not just one metric.

Player	Team	Yr	Plays	WEPA/play	Line val	Total EPA
Saquon Barkley	Penn State	2016	288	0.340	3.9	97.9
Dalvin Cook	Florida State	2016	292	0.340	4.3	99.3
Breece Hall	Iowa State	2020	301	0.340	4.5	102.3
James Flanders	Tulsa	2016	266	0.390	4.9	103.7
Hassan Haskins	Michigan	2021	280	0.380	4.8	106.4

Comps are statistical — efficiency, volume, and value tier all factor in. Style and conference context differ.

Game Log · box score + EPA, week by week

EPA per play · x-axis: weekabove 0 = added points · below = lost

Wk	Opponent	Result	Opp SP+	Car	Rush Yds	Avg	Rush TD	Rec	Rec Yds	Rec TD	EPA/play
1	@Purdue	L21-30	10.3	9	24	2.7	2	—	—	—	0.07
2	vsHawai'i	W45-27	-2.3	18	171	9.5	3	1	9	0	2.29
3	vsIdaho	W42-0	—	11	69	6.3	2	—	—	—	0.55
4	@USC	W45-27	-0.6	23	158	6.9	0	1	9	0	0.38
5	vsWashington	W27-24	-0.7	20	111	5.6	2	—	—	—	0.28
6	@Washington State	L24-31	6.7	18	145	8.1	0	2	18	0	0.21
8	vsUtah	W42-34	15.2	19	152	8.0	1	—	—	—	0.27
9	@California	L25-39	3.4	13	42	3.2	0	—	—	—	-0.00
10	@Colorado	L34-37	-10.0	22	98	4.5	1	1	4	0	-0.03
11	vsStanford	W35-14	-10.2	23	80	3.5	1	1	13	0	0.01
12	vsArizona State	W24-10	11.8	20	150	7.5	0	—	—	—	0.28
13	@Oregon	L29-38	10.2	13	59	4.5	1	—	—	—	0.06
1	vsUtah State	L13-24	0.1	18	78	4.3	0	2	22	0	0.17

Usage & Situational · Pro

Snap-share proxy

Overall

25.9%

Passing plays

2.5%

Rushing plays

42.8%

Standard downs

30.1%

Passing downs

15.3%

EPA by down type

Standard downs: 0.25
Passing downs: 0.00
Pass / Rush EPA: 0.23 / 0.21

Usage = share of team plays (CFBD has no true snap counts).

Career · rolling EPA, game by game

Per-game EPA5-game avg

EPA per play · 2021 · 13 games

Chart shows per-game EPA (bars) and rolling 5-game average (line). Season breaks marked with dashed lines. Line value = est. points over replacement per game.