UTSA vs. North Texas: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
UTSATeam statsUNT
- Q4 2:48UTSATre'Von Bradley 67 Yd pass from Eddie Lee Marburger (Hunter Duplessis Kick)23–45
- Q4 8:35UTSAHunter Duplessis 42 Yd Field Goal 16–45
- Q3 3:52UNTAyo Adeyi 42 Yd Run (Ethan Mooney Kick)13–45
- Q3 7:52UNTIkaika Ragsdale 10 Yd Run (Ethan Mooney Kick)13–38
- Q2 3:04UNTDeAndre Torrey 19 Yd Run (Ethan Mooney Kick)13–31
- Q2 5:17UNTIkaika Ragsdale 15 Yd Run (Ethan Mooney Kick)13–24
- Q2 8:20UTSAFrank Harris 69 Yd Run (Hunter Duplessis Kick)13–17
- Q2 10:23UTSAHunter Duplessis 27 Yd Field Goal 6–17
- Q1 0:32UNTDeAndre Torrey 4 Yd Run (Ethan Mooney Kick)3–17
- Q1 5:05UTSAHunter Duplessis 29 Yd Field Goal 3–10
- Q1 10:13UNTDeAndre Torrey 2 Yd Run (Ethan Mooney Kick)0–10
- Q1 12:09UNTEthan Mooney 34 Yd Field Goal 0–3
How the model called it
What the numbers say
- UTSA played behind the sticks — third downs that long convert rarely, and UNT did not face the same ones. 3rd & 11.7 vs 3rd & 7.2
- UTSA lived on explosives rather than sustaining drives — a profile that vanished once those chunk plays were tackled. 13% explosive on a 35% success rate
- PassEddie Lee Marburger 2/4, 74 YDS, 1 TD
- RushFrank Harris 10 CAR, 97 YDS, 1 TD
- RecTre'Von Bradley 1 REC, 67 YDS, 1 TD
- PassAustin Aune 10/17, 116 YDS
- RushIkaika Ragsdale 20 CAR, 146 YDS, 2 TD
- RecKhatib Lyles 3 REC, 50 YDS
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsUNT up 32 entering the 4th quarter. Across 373 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q2 8:20UTSA +23%
Frank Harris run for 69 yds for a TD (Hunter Duplessis KICK)
- Q2 5:17UNT +22%
Ikaika Ragsdale run for 15 yds for a TD (Ethan Mooney KICK)
- Q1 0:32UNT +20%
DeAndre Torrey run for 4 yds for a TD (Ethan Mooney KICK)
- Q1 10:13UNT +18%
DeAndre Torrey run for 2 yds for a TD (Ethan Mooney KICK)
- Q2 3:04UNT +17%
DeAndre Torrey run for 19 yds for a TD (Ethan Mooney KICK)
- Q3 7:52UNT +9%
Ikaika Ragsdale run for 10 yds for a TD (Ethan Mooney KICK)
FAQ
What was the final score of UTSA vs. North Texas?
UTSA 23, North Texas 45.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked UTSA, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
| UTSA | UNT | |
|---|---|---|
| 366 | Total yards | 456 |
| 161 | Passing yards | 116 |
| 205 | Rushing yards | 340 |
| 16 | First downs | 27 |
| 1-13 | 3rd down | 7-13 |
| 1-2 | 4th down | 1-1 |
| 12/27 | Comp/Att | 10/17 |
| 6.0 | Yards per pass | 6.8 |
| 5.9 | Yards per rush | 5.7 |
| 3 | Turnovers | 2 |
| 5-67 | Penalties | 3-25 |
| 23:16 | Possession | 36:44 |
Costliest call
Q1 8:46 UTSA punt on 4th & 1 at UTSA 34. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 0.62 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 2:48UTSATre'Von Bradley 67 Yd pass from Eddie Lee Marburger (Hunter Duplessis Kick)23–45
- Q4 8:35UTSAHunter Duplessis 42 Yd Field Goal 16–45
- Q3 3:52UNTAyo Adeyi 42 Yd Run (Ethan Mooney Kick)13–45
- Q3 7:52UNTIkaika Ragsdale 10 Yd Run (Ethan Mooney Kick)13–38
- Q2 3:04UNTDeAndre Torrey 19 Yd Run (Ethan Mooney Kick)13–31
- Q2 5:17UNTIkaika Ragsdale 15 Yd Run (Ethan Mooney Kick)13–24
- Q2 8:20UTSAFrank Harris 69 Yd Run (Hunter Duplessis Kick)13–17
- Q2 10:23UTSAHunter Duplessis 27 Yd Field Goal 6–17
- Q1 0:32UNTDeAndre Torrey 4 Yd Run (Ethan Mooney Kick)3–17
- Q1 5:05UTSAHunter Duplessis 29 Yd Field Goal 3–10
- Q1 10:13UNTDeAndre Torrey 2 Yd Run (Ethan Mooney Kick)0–10
- Q1 12:09UNTEthan Mooney 34 Yd Field Goal 0–3
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (UNT Elo 1326, UTSA Elo 1620 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects UNT +9.4 (28% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2021
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles#30 of 112 in 2021 by biggest miss · #58 of 128 in 2021 by longest odds · #24 of 62 in 2021 by biggest poll gap.
The 2021 upset archive →UTSA leads 8–6 · 50% have been one-possession games
| UTSA | UNT | |
|---|---|---|
| +1.5 (#68) | CORE overall | -8.3 (#97) |
| +5 / +3 | offense / defense | -8 / +1 |
| 2.95 | points / drive | 1.79 |
| 2.13 | allowed / drive | 2.26 |
| 18% | three-and-outs | 26% |
| +2 | pass over expected | -9 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →