Northern Arizona vs. Arizona: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
Northern Arizona
Arizona
▸Final
Arizona Stadium
NORTTeam statsARIZ
264Total yards478
186Pass292
78Rush186
18First downs22
6-183rd down1-5
1Turnovers2
35:04Possession24:56
- Q4 10:46ARIZTyler Loop 35 Yd Field Goal 3–38
- Q3 2:02ARIZJayden de Laura 53 Yd Run (Tyler Loop Kick)3–35
- Q3 4:34ARIZTetairoa McMillan 5 Yd pass from Jayden de Laura (Tyler Loop Kick)3–28
- Q3 11:26ARIZTacario Davis 85 Yd Return of Blocked Field Goal (Tyler Loop Kick)3–21
- Q2 0:00NORTMarcus Lye 49 Yd Field Goal 3–14
- Q2 13:24ARIZJonah Coleman 7 Yd pass from Jayden de Laura (Tyler Loop Kick)0–14
- Q1 11:13ARIZJacob Cowing 4 Yd pass from Jayden de Laura (Tyler Loop Kick)0–7
How the model called it
Market line
ARIZ −28.5
Against the number
ARIZ covered
line ARIZ −28.5
What the numbers say
- NORT played behind the sticks — third downs that long convert rarely, and ARIZ did not face the same ones. 3rd & 8.3 vs 3rd & 5.6
Kickoff145 plays →Final
Tap or hover on the chart to see play details
ARIZ (top)NORT (bottom)· colored dots = scoresFinal: ARIZ 100%
Closing line
ARIZ −28.5
Closing total
61.0
Model line
—
Actual result
NORT 3 – 38 ARIZ
Northern Arizona
- PassKai Millner 14/22, 166 YDS
- RushTJ McDaniel 14 CAR, 56 YDS
- RecColeman Owen 5 REC, 90 YDS
Arizona
- PassJayden de Laura 18/24, 285 YDS, 3 TD, 1 INT
- RushMichael Wiley 10 CAR, 52 YDS
- RecTetairoa McMillan 3 REC, 65 YDS, 1 TD
29.1sper snap · slower the national 24.5s
fastnational avgslow
Snaps run
123
Points / snap
0.33
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsARIZ up 32 entering the 4th quarter. Across 370 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
100%
ARIZ went on to win
A near-lock historically
FAQ
What was the final score of Northern Arizona vs. Arizona?
Northern Arizona 3, Arizona 38.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (ARIZ) was correct.
NORT
ARIZ
29%
Success rate
63%
0.30
EPA / pass
0.42
-0.52
EPA / rush
0.07
29%
Early-down success
70%
37%
Pass success
57%
23%
Rush success
69%
7%
Explosive play rate (15+ yds)
22%
39%
Stuffed rush rate
8%
44%
Pass rate
52%
8.3
Avg 3rd-down distance
5.6
NORT
8.3 yards to go on 3rd down
69 scrimmage snaps
ARIZ
5.6 yards to go on 3rd down
54 scrimmage snaps
| NORT | ARIZ | |
|---|---|---|
| 264 | Total yards | 478 |
| 186 | Passing yards | 292 |
| 78 | Rushing yards | 186 |
| 18 | First downs | 22 |
| 6-18 | 3rd down | 1-5 |
| 0-3 | 4th down | 0-2 |
| 18/29 | Comp/Att | 20/26 |
| 6.4 | Yards per pass | 11.2 |
| 1.9 | Yards per rush | 6.9 |
| 1 | Turnovers | 2 |
| 11-84 | Penalties | 11-91 |
| 35:04 | Possession | 24:56 |
NORT
9/10 with the model
−0.4 pts · −0.0% win prob
ARIZ
3/3 with the model
nothing given up
Costliest call
Q1 6:37 NORT punt on 4th & 11 at ARIZ 40. The model preferred field goal, a gap of 0.44 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finishNORT 2/12 scoring drives← own end zone →ARIZ 5/11 scoring drives
ARIZTD7 pl, 65 yds· own 35Q1
NORTPUNT7 pl, 35 yds· own 25Q1
ARIZDOWNS7 pl, 61 yds· own 4Q1
NORTPUNT3 pl, -4 yds· own 35Q1
ARIZTD7 pl, 78 yds· own 22Q1
NORTFUM6 pl, 36 yds· own 25Q2
ARIZFUM5 pl, 54 yds· own 39Q2
NORTFG16 pl, 49 yds· own 20Q2
NORTTD9 pl, 66 yds· own 25Q3
NORTPUNT3 pl, 1 yds· own 25Q3
ARIZPUNT5 pl, -3 yds· own 35Q3
NORTDOWNS4 pl, 8 yds· own 29Q3
ARIZTD4 pl, 37 yds· opp 37Q3
NORTPUNT3 pl, 6 yds· own 25Q3
ARIZTD3 pl, 63 yds· own 37Q3
NORTDOWNS8 pl, 57 yds· own 25Q3
ARIZFG7 pl, 64 yds· own 18Q4
NORTPUNT3 pl, 5 yds· own 26Q4
ARIZINT4 pl, 42 yds· own 30Q4
NORTPUNT3 pl, -15 yds· own 20Q4
ARIZDOWNS4 pl, 9 yds· opp 48Q4
NORTDOWNS7 pl, 22 yds· own 39Q4
ARIZEND1 pl, -2 yds· own 39Q4
- Q4 10:46ARIZTyler Loop 35 Yd Field Goal 3–38
- Q3 2:02ARIZJayden de Laura 53 Yd Run (Tyler Loop Kick)3–35
- Q3 4:34ARIZTetairoa McMillan 5 Yd pass from Jayden de Laura (Tyler Loop Kick)3–28
- Q3 11:26ARIZTacario Davis 85 Yd Return of Blocked Field Goal (Tyler Loop Kick)3–21
- Q2 0:00NORTMarcus Lye 49 Yd Field Goal 3–14
- Q2 13:24ARIZJonah Coleman 7 Yd pass from Jayden de Laura (Tyler Loop Kick)0–14
- Q1 11:13ARIZJacob Cowing 4 Yd pass from Jayden de Laura (Tyler Loop Kick)0–7
Model prediction
how the number is builtOne or both teams lack a power rating (often an FCS opponent), so the model prediction is low-confidence for this game.
Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →