Louisiana vs. Liberty: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
ULTeam statsLIB
- Q4 2:26ULEmani Bailey 2 Yd Run (Nate Snyder Kick)42–14
- Q4 14:11ULNeal Johnson 2 Yd pass from Levi Lewis (Nate Snyder Kick)35–14
- Q3 7:44ULMontrell Johnson 2 Yd Run (Nate Snyder Kick)28–14
- Q3 11:57LIBKevin Shaa 30 Yd pass from Malik Willis (Brayden Beck Kick)21–14
- Q2 7:14LIBKevin Shaa 29 Yd pass from Malik Willis (Brayden Beck Kick)21–7
- Q2 9:06ULDalen Cambre 26 Yd Fumble Return (Nate Snyder Kick)21–0
- Q2 14:19ULKyren Lacy 15 Yd pass from Levi Lewis (Nate Snyder Kick)14–0
- Q1 1:57ULJohn Stephens Jr. 4 Yd pass from Levi Lewis (Nate Snyder Kick)7–0
How the model called it
What the numbers say
- LIB played behind the sticks — third downs that long convert rarely, and UL did not face the same ones. 3rd & 10.7 vs 3rd & 6.7
- PassLevi Lewis 14/25, 166 YDS, 3 TD
- RushEmani Bailey 13 CAR, 60 YDS, 1 TD
- RecPeter LeBlanc 2 REC, 38 YDS
- PassMalik Willis 14/34, 162 YDS, 2 TD, 2 INT
- RushT.J. Green 4 CAR, 56 YDS
- RecKevin Shaa 3 REC, 72 YDS, 2 TD
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsUL up 14 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,012 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q1 1:57UL +18%
Levi Lewis pass complete to John Stephens Jr. for 4 yds for a TD (Nate Snyder KICK)
- Q3 11:57LIB +16%
Malik Willis pass complete to Kevin Shaa for 30 yds for a TD (Brayden Beck KICK)
- Q2 14:19UL +16%
Levi Lewis pass complete to Kyren Lacy for 15 yds for a TD (Nate Snyder KICK)
- Q3 7:44UL +15%
Montrell Johnson run for 2 yds for a TD (Nate Snyder KICK)
- Q2 9:06UL +8%
Max Morgan run for 21 yds for a TD (Nate Snyder KICK)
- Q2 7:14LIB +8%
Malik Willis pass complete to Kevin Shaa for 29 yds for a TD (Brayden Beck KICK)
FAQ
What was the final score of Louisiana vs. Liberty?
Louisiana 42, Liberty 14.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (UL) was correct.
| UL | LIB | |
|---|---|---|
| 296 | Total yards | 293 |
| 166 | Passing yards | 206 |
| 130 | Rushing yards | 87 |
| 17 | First downs | 16 |
| 3-13 | 3rd down | 6-17 |
| 3-4 | 4th down | 2-5 |
| 14/25 | Comp/Att | 15/37 |
| 6.6 | Yards per pass | 5.6 |
| 3.3 | Yards per rush | 2.6 |
| 0 | Turnovers | 6 |
| 3-30 | Penalties | 7-76 |
| 31:49 | Possession | 28:11 |
Costliest call
Q2 9:06 LIB go for it on 4th & 17 at LIB 47. The model preferred punt, a gap of 0.65 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 2:26ULEmani Bailey 2 Yd Run (Nate Snyder Kick)42–14
- Q4 14:11ULNeal Johnson 2 Yd pass from Levi Lewis (Nate Snyder Kick)35–14
- Q3 7:44ULMontrell Johnson 2 Yd Run (Nate Snyder Kick)28–14
- Q3 11:57LIBKevin Shaa 30 Yd pass from Malik Willis (Brayden Beck Kick)21–14
- Q2 7:14LIBKevin Shaa 29 Yd pass from Malik Willis (Brayden Beck Kick)21–7
- Q2 9:06ULDalen Cambre 26 Yd Fumble Return (Nate Snyder Kick)21–0
- Q2 14:19ULKyren Lacy 15 Yd pass from Levi Lewis (Nate Snyder Kick)14–0
- Q1 1:57ULJohn Stephens Jr. 4 Yd pass from Levi Lewis (Nate Snyder Kick)7–0
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (LIB Elo 1662, UL Elo 1775 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects LIB +2.1 (46% to win) — 6.1 points clear of UL's market line of -4. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2021
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles#20 of 112 in 2021 by biggest miss · #85 of 128 in 2021 by longest odds.
The 2021 upset archive →| UL | LIB | |
|---|---|---|
| +5.3 (#52) | CORE overall | +7.8 (#47) |
| +1 / -4 | offense / defense | +4 / -4 |
| 2.82 | points / drive | 2.77 |
| 1.74 | allowed / drive | 1.80 |
| 28% | three-and-outs | 23% |
| -2 | pass over expected | +1 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →