Houston vs. Tulsa: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
HOUTeam statsTLSA
- Q4 4:19HOUDalton Witherspoon 48 Yd Field Goal 45–10
- Q4 9:26TLSAEzra Naylor II 41 Yd pass from Davis Brin (Zack Long Kick)42–10
- Q4 14:55HOUSeth Green 8 Yd pass from Clayton Tune (Dalton Witherspoon Kick)42–3
- Q3 14:06HOUGervarrius Owens 45 Yd Interception Return (Dalton Witherspoon Kick)35–3
- Q2 1:22TLSAZack Long 33 Yd Field Goal 28–3
- Q2 9:33HOUAlton McCaskill 1 Yd Run (Dalton Witherspoon Kick)28–0
- Q2 13:01HOUAlton McCaskill 27 Yd Run (Dalton Witherspoon Kick)21–0
- Q1 1:14HOUJeremy Singleton 47 Yd pass from Clayton Tune (Dalton Witherspoon Kick)14–0
- Q1 4:23HOUAlton McCaskill 1 Yd Run (Dalton Witherspoon Kick)7–0
How the model called it
What the numbers say
- TLSA played behind the sticks — third downs that long convert rarely, and HOU did not face the same ones. 3rd & 10.1 vs 3rd & 7.3
- TLSA lived on explosives rather than sustaining drives — a profile that vanished once those chunk plays were tackled. 13% explosive on a 28% success rate
- PassClayton Tune 17/24, 241 YDS, 2 TD, 1 INT
- RushAlton McCaskill 17 CAR, 77 YDS, 3 TD
- RecTank Dell 6 REC, 82 YDS
- PassDavis Brin 20/39, 258 YDS, 1 TD, 3 INT
- RushAnthony Watkins 8 CAR, 39 YDS
- RecSam Crawford 5 REC, 101 YDS
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsHOU up 32 entering the 4th quarter. Across 373 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q1 4:23HOU +19%
Alton McCaskill run for 1 yd for a TD, (Dalton Witherspoon KICK)
- Q1 1:14HOU +15%
Clayton Tune pass complete to Jeremy Singleton for 47 yds for a TD, (Dalton Witherspoon KICK)
- Q2 13:01HOU +11%
Alton McCaskill run for 27 yds for a TD, (Dalton Witherspoon KICK)
- Q2 9:33HOU +5%
Alton McCaskill run for 1 yd for a TD, (Dalton Witherspoon KICK)
FAQ
What was the final score of Houston vs. Tulsa?
Houston 45, Tulsa 10.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked TLSA, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
| HOU | TLSA | |
|---|---|---|
| 405 | Total yards | 289 |
| 261 | Passing yards | 258 |
| 144 | Rushing yards | 31 |
| 22 | First downs | 14 |
| 3-11 | 3rd down | 5-16 |
| 1-1 | 4th down | 0-2 |
| 19/29 | Comp/Att | 20/39 |
| 9.0 | Yards per pass | 6.6 |
| 4.4 | Yards per rush | 1.1 |
| 1 | Turnovers | 3 |
| 11-90 | Penalties | 11-119 |
| 32:26 | Possession | 27:34 |
Costliest call
Q3 4:27 TLSA go for it on 4th & 13 at HOU 35. The model preferred field goal, a gap of 0.50 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 4:19HOUDalton Witherspoon 48 Yd Field Goal 45–10
- Q4 9:26TLSAEzra Naylor II 41 Yd pass from Davis Brin (Zack Long Kick)42–10
- Q4 14:55HOUSeth Green 8 Yd pass from Clayton Tune (Dalton Witherspoon Kick)42–3
- Q3 14:06HOUGervarrius Owens 45 Yd Interception Return (Dalton Witherspoon Kick)35–3
- Q2 1:22TLSAZack Long 33 Yd Field Goal 28–3
- Q2 9:33HOUAlton McCaskill 1 Yd Run (Dalton Witherspoon Kick)28–0
- Q2 13:01HOUAlton McCaskill 27 Yd Run (Dalton Witherspoon Kick)21–0
- Q1 1:14HOUJeremy Singleton 47 Yd pass from Clayton Tune (Dalton Witherspoon Kick)14–0
- Q1 4:23HOUAlton McCaskill 1 Yd Run (Dalton Witherspoon Kick)7–0
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (TLSA Elo 1506, HOU Elo 1553 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects TLSA -0.5 (53% to win) — 3.0 points clear of HOU's market line of -3.5. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2021
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles#6 of 112 in 2021 by biggest miss · #92 of 128 in 2021 by longest odds.
The 2021 upset archive →Houston leads 26–20 · 33% have been one-possession games
| HOU | TLSA | |
|---|---|---|
| +10.8 (#32) | CORE overall | +5.1 (#55) |
| +1 / -10 | offense / defense | -0 / -5 |
| 2.71 | points / drive | 1.95 |
| 1.50 | allowed / drive | 1.99 |
| 26% | three-and-outs | 26% |
| +5 | pass over expected | -3 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →