Bowling Green vs. Minnesota: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
BGSUTeam statsMINN
- Q3 0:31BGSUMatt McDonald 3 Yd Run (Nate Needham Kick)14–10
- Q3 11:00MINNCole Kramer 19 Yd Run (Matthew Trickett Kick)7–10
- Q2 6:19BGSUMatt McDonald 1 Yd Run (Nate Needham Kick)7–3
- Q1 6:23MINNMatthew Trickett 36 Yd Field Goal 0–3
How the model called it
- PassMatt McDonald 19/35, 170 YDS, 1 INT
- RushJaison Patterson 8 CAR, 20 YDS
- RecChristian Sims 6 REC, 51 YDS
- PassTanner Morgan 5/13, 59 YDS, 2 INT
- RushTrey Potts 27 CAR, 141 YDS
- RecDaniel Jackson 1 REC, 25 YDS
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsBGSU up 4 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,449 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q4 2:19BGSU +48%
Matt Naranjo punt for 39 yds, returns for no gain to the Minn 35
- Q4 0:23BGSU +32%
Matt Naranjo punt for 47 yds, Treyson Potts returns for 27 yds to the Minn 42
- Q3 0:31BGSU +29%
Matt McDonald run for 3 yds for a TD, (Nate Needham KICK)
- Q4 2:13MINN +21%
Tanner Morgan pass intercepted return for no gain to the BwGrn 35
- Q4 7:35BGSU +18%
Matt McDonald pass complete to Tyrone Broden for 11 yds to the Minn 8
- Q4 13:28MINN +18%
Matt McDonald pass complete to Cavon Croom for 5 yds to the Minn 27
FAQ
What was the final score of Bowling Green vs. Minnesota?
Bowling Green 14, Minnesota 10.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked MINN, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
| BGSU | MINN | |
|---|---|---|
| 192 | Total yards | 241 |
| 170 | Passing yards | 59 |
| 22 | Rushing yards | 182 |
| 12 | First downs | 12 |
| 2-14 | 3rd down | 6-14 |
| 1-1 | 4th down | 0-1 |
| 19/36 | Comp/Att | 5/13 |
| 4.7 | Yards per pass | 4.5 |
| 0.9 | Yards per rush | 4.1 |
| 2 | Turnovers | 3 |
| 4-30 | Penalties | 7-71 |
| 28:30 | Possession | 31:30 |
Costliest call
Q2 12:28 MINN punt on 4th & 14 at BGSU 37. The model preferred field goal, a gap of 0.51 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q3 0:31BGSUMatt McDonald 3 Yd Run (Nate Needham Kick)14–10
- Q3 11:00MINNCole Kramer 19 Yd Run (Matthew Trickett Kick)7–10
- Q2 6:19BGSUMatt McDonald 1 Yd Run (Nate Needham Kick)7–3
- Q1 6:23MINNMatthew Trickett 36 Yd Field Goal 0–3
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (MINN Elo 1648, BGSU Elo 1020 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects MINN -27.5 (95% to win) — 3.0 points clear of BGSU's market line of -30.5. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2021
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles#15 of 112 in 2021 by biggest miss · #3 of 128 in 2021 by longest odds.
The 2021 upset archive →| BGSU | MINN | |
|---|---|---|
| -22.1 (#116) | CORE overall | +12.4 (#30) |
| -20 / +2 | offense / defense | +3 / -10 |
| 1.61 | points / drive | 2.35 |
| 2.73 | allowed / drive | 1.57 |
| 32% | three-and-outs | 21% |
| +11 | pass over expected | -14 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
Create a free account →You get Pro free for 6 months. No card required.
Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →