Purdue vs. Iowa: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
PURTeam statsIOWA
- Q4 12:29PURDavid Bell 21 Yd pass from Aidan O'Connell (Mitchell Fineran Kick)24–7
- Q3 11:07PURMitchell Fineran 31 Yd Field Goal 17–7
- Q2 0:19PURTJ Sheffield 3 Yd pass from Aidan O'Connell (Mitchell Fineran Kick)14–7
- Q2 3:20IOWAIvory Kelly-Martin 3 Yd Run (Caleb Shudak Kick)7–7
- Q1 3:38PURAidan O'Connell 6 Yd Run (Mitchell Fineran Kick)7–0
How the model called it
What the numbers say
- PUR played behind the sticks — third downs that long convert rarely, and IOWA did not face the same ones. 3rd & 8.4 vs 3rd & 5.9
- PUR lived on explosives rather than sustaining drives — a profile that vanished once those chunk plays were tackled. 14% explosive on a 40% success rate
- PassAidan O'Connell 30/40, 375 YDS, 2 TD
- RushKing Doerue 18 CAR, 48 YDS
- RecDavid Bell 11 REC, 240 YDS, 1 TD
- PassSpencer Petras 17/32, 195 YDS, 4 INT
- RushTyler Goodson 12 CAR, 68 YDS
- RecSam LaPorta 5 REC, 61 YDS
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsPUR up 10 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,140 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q2 0:19PUR +23%
Aidan O'Connell pass complete to TJ Sheffield for 3 yds for a TD, (Mitchell Fineran KICK)
- Q2 3:20IOWA +19%
Ivory Kelly-Martin run for 3 yds for a TD, (Caleb Shudak KICK)
- Q1 3:38PUR +17%
Aidan O'Connell run for 6 yds for a TD, (Mitchell Fineran KICK)
- Q4 12:29PUR +15%
Aidan O'Connell pass complete to David Bell for 21 yds for a TD, (Mitchell Fineran KICK)
- Q3 11:07PUR +13%
Mitchell Fineran 31 yd FG GOOD
- Q4 14:40PUR +11%
Aidan O'Connell pass incomplete to Payne Durham
FAQ
What was the final score of Purdue vs. Iowa?
Purdue 24, Iowa 7.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked IOWA, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
| PUR | IOWA | |
|---|---|---|
| 464 | Total yards | 271 |
| 378 | Passing yards | 195 |
| 86 | Rushing yards | 76 |
| 24 | First downs | 17 |
| 9-16 | 3rd down | 7-13 |
| 0-0 | 4th down | 0-1 |
| 31/43 | Comp/Att | 17/32 |
| 8.8 | Yards per pass | 6.1 |
| 2.6 | Yards per rush | 2.5 |
| 1 | Turnovers | 4 |
| 4-30 | Penalties | 3-28 |
| 34:46 | Possession | 25:14 |
Costliest call
Q4 5:30 PUR punt on 4th & 1 at PUR 40. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 1.09 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 12:29PURDavid Bell 21 Yd pass from Aidan O'Connell (Mitchell Fineran Kick)24–7
- Q3 11:07PURMitchell Fineran 31 Yd Field Goal 17–7
- Q2 0:19PURTJ Sheffield 3 Yd pass from Aidan O'Connell (Mitchell Fineran Kick)14–7
- Q2 3:20IOWAIvory Kelly-Martin 3 Yd Run (Caleb Shudak Kick)7–7
- Q1 3:38PURAidan O'Connell 6 Yd Run (Mitchell Fineran Kick)7–0
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (IOWA Elo 1923, PUR Elo 1555 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects IOWA -17.1 (87% to win) — 6.1 points clear of IOWA's market line of -11. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2021
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles#40 of 112 in 2021 by biggest miss · #40 of 128 in 2021 by longest odds · #2 of 62 in 2021 by biggest poll gap.
The 2021 upset archive →Purdue leads 50–41–3 · Iowa has won 2 straight · 34% have been one-possession games
| PUR | IOWA | |
|---|---|---|
| +9.4 (#44) | CORE overall | +4.9 (#56) |
| +6 / -3 | offense / defense | -11 / -16 |
| 2.46 | points / drive | 1.68 |
| 1.97 | allowed / drive | 1.41 |
| 23% | three-and-outs | 34% |
| +18 | pass over expected | -1 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
Create a free account →You get Pro free for 6 months. No card required.
Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →