Hawai'i vs. Wyoming: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
HAWTeam statsWYO
- Q4 6:27HAWSteven Fiso 32 Yd pass from Chevan Cordeiro (Matthew Shipley Kick)38–14
- Q3 1:11WYOIsaiah Neyor 30 Yd pass from Levi Williams (John Hoyland Kick)31–14
- Q2 0:00HAWJared Smart 50 Yd pass from Chevan Cordeiro (Matthew Shipley Kick)31–7
- Q2 1:36WYOTitus Swen 4 Yd Run (John Hoyland Kick)24–7
- Q2 5:22HAWMatthew Shipley 25 Yd Field Goal 24–0
- Q2 12:39HAWSteven Fiso 19 Yd pass from Chevan Cordeiro (Matthew Shipley Kick)21–0
- Q1 3:49HAWCalvin Turner Jr. 2 Yd Run (Matthew Shipley Kick)14–0
- Q1 12:06HAWChevan Cordeiro 8 Yd Run (Matthew Shipley Kick)7–0
How the model called it
- PassChevan Cordeiro 19/31, 323 YDS, 3 TD, 1 INT
- RushChevan Cordeiro 14 CAR, 86 YDS, 1 TD
- RecCalvin Turner Jr. 5 REC, 90 YDS
- PassLevi Williams 15/24, 161 YDS, 1 TD
- RushLevi Williams 9 CAR, 43 YDS
- RecIsaiah Neyor 3 REC, 78 YDS, 1 TD
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsHAW up 17 entering the 4th quarter. Across 841 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q2 12:39HAW +22%
Chevan Cordeiro pass complete to Steven Fiso for 19 yds for a TD, (Matthew Shipley KICK)
- Q1 3:49HAW +20%
Calvin Turner Jr. run for 2 yds for a TD, (Matthew Shipley KICK)
- Q1 12:06HAW +16%
Chevan Cordeiro 8 Yd Run (Matthew Shipley Kick)
- Q2 0:00HAW +15%
Chevan Cordeiro pass complete to Jared Smart for 50 yds for a TD, (Matthew Shipley KICK)
- Q2 1:36WYO +12%
Titus Swen run for 4 yds for a TD, (John Hoyland KICK)
- Q1 15:00WYO +8%
Chevan Cordeiro pass incomplete
FAQ
What was the final score of Hawai'i vs. Wyoming?
Hawai'i 38, Wyoming 14.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked WYO, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
| HAW | WYO | |
|---|---|---|
| 490 | Total yards | 305 |
| 323 | Passing yards | 186 |
| 167 | Rushing yards | 119 |
| 26 | First downs | 17 |
| 7-12 | 3rd down | 6-14 |
| 0-1 | 4th down | 0-2 |
| 19/31 | Comp/Att | 18/29 |
| 10.4 | Yards per pass | 6.4 |
| 4.6 | Yards per rush | 3.2 |
| 1 | Turnovers | 0 |
| 2-15 | Penalties | 3-26 |
| 31:34 | Possession | 28:26 |
Costliest call
Q3 11:27 WYO punt on 4th & 5 at HAW 45. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 0.50 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 6:27HAWSteven Fiso 32 Yd pass from Chevan Cordeiro (Matthew Shipley Kick)38–14
- Q3 1:11WYOIsaiah Neyor 30 Yd pass from Levi Williams (John Hoyland Kick)31–14
- Q2 0:00HAWJared Smart 50 Yd pass from Chevan Cordeiro (Matthew Shipley Kick)31–7
- Q2 1:36WYOTitus Swen 4 Yd Run (John Hoyland Kick)24–7
- Q2 5:22HAWMatthew Shipley 25 Yd Field Goal 24–0
- Q2 12:39HAWSteven Fiso 19 Yd pass from Chevan Cordeiro (Matthew Shipley Kick)21–0
- Q1 3:49HAWCalvin Turner Jr. 2 Yd Run (Matthew Shipley Kick)14–0
- Q1 12:06HAWChevan Cordeiro 8 Yd Run (Matthew Shipley Kick)7–0
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (WYO Elo 1579, HAW Elo 1297 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects WYO -13.7 (82% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2021
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles#9 of 112 in 2021 by biggest miss · #31 of 128 in 2021 by longest odds.
The 2021 upset archive →Wyoming leads 17–12 · 45% have been one-possession games
| HAW | WYO | |
|---|---|---|
| -1.1 (#76) | CORE overall | +0.7 (#71) |
| -2 / -1 | offense / defense | +1 / +1 |
| 1.97 | points / drive | 2.16 |
| 2.29 | allowed / drive | 2.02 |
| 30% | three-and-outs | 29% |
| +5 | pass over expected | -11 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →