#2Chevan Cordeiro

QB·Hawai'i·2022 20207.6 pts line valueDay 3 (Rds 4–7)

Chevan Cordeiro is a 2-year Dual-Threat QB for Hawai'i. Chevan's 2020 season ranks in the 30th percentile nationally by opponent-adjusted EPA per play across 412 plays — a developing rate for the QB.

What projects, and what doesn't · QBs · held out 2019-2025

How well one season predicts the next, measured on seasons the model never trained on. 1.00 would be perfectly predictable; 0.00 means last year told us nothing.

Usage share (volume)0.46
Beats guessing the QB average by 16%. n=2,421 QB seasons
EPA per play (efficiency)0.05
Not projectable — we do not forecast this. n=1,965 QB seasons
Total EPA (value)0.51
Beats guessing the QB average by 20%. n=1,965 QB seasons

Across all positions, usage carries year to year at 0.47 and efficiency at 0.07. So Chevan Cordeiro's projection is a projection of opportunity — how much of the offense he runs through. How well he converts it is something this model does not claim to know a year in advance, and the number above is why.

2020 Production

Passing

195/312 Comp/Att2083 Pass yards14 Pass TD6 INT62.5% Comp %

Rushing

485 Rush yards7 Rush TD116 Carries4.2 Yards/carry

Punting

3 Punts104 Punt yards34.7 Yards/punt53 Long0 Inside 20

Performance Analysis · 2020 · vs QB peers

Efficiency30
Volume100
Dual-Threat100
Consistency71
Clutch97

Player type

Dual-Threat QB

A genuine rushing threat who stresses defenses horizontally. Extends plays with legs and forces extra gap assignments.

Rushing threatScrambles for valueStresses defensive structure

Peer percentiles

Opponent-adjusted EPA (WEPA/play)30th %ile · below avg

Game-to-game consistency71th %ile · average

Key findings

▸Below-average efficiency vs QB peers — value comes through volume, not per-play impact.
▸High-volume role — one of the team's most-used QBs by play share.
▸High game-to-game consistency — reliable floor each week.
▸4 high-impact games (EPA/play > 0.4) this season — elite ceiling.
▸Particularly dangerous on passing downs — efficiency spikes in obvious pass situations.
▸Strong second-half surge — EPA/play improved 0.19 from the first to second half of the season.
▸Peak game: 0.56 EPA/play in Wk 8 vs Fresno State (SP+ -6).

Game Log · box score + EPA, week by week

EPA per play · x-axis: weekabove 0 = added points · below = lost

Wk	Opponent	Result	Opp SP+	C/ATT	Pass Yds	Pass TD	INT	Rush Yds	Rush TD	EPA/play
8	@Fresno State	W34-19	-5.5	20/30	229	0	0	116	2	0.56
9	@Wyoming	L7-31	-2.5	11/26	110	0	1	1	0	-0.23
10	vsNew Mexico	W39-33	-15.0	33/43	410	4	2	39	1	0.48
11	@San Diego State	L10-34	5.3	17/35	209	1	1	20	0	-0.07
12	vsBoise State	L32-40	6.7	25/48	253	3	0	90	0	0.28
13	vsNevada	W24-21	1.9	26/32	246	1	0	62	1	0.53
14	@San José State	L24-35	0.1	28/42	238	2	1	36	1	0.52
15	vsUNLV	W38-21	-19.7	20/33	252	0	1	88	2	0.20
1	vsHouston	W28-14	3.3	15/23	136	3	0	33	0	0.24

Usage & Situational · Pro

Snap-share proxy

Overall

67.2%

Passing plays

99.1%

Rushing plays

30.4%

Standard downs

59.2%

Passing downs

82.1%

EPA by down type

Standard downs: 0.17
Passing downs: 0.45
Pass / Rush EPA: 0.21 / 0.58

Usage = share of team plays (CFBD has no true snap counts).

Career · rolling EPA, game by game

Per-game EPA5-game avg

EPA per play · 2020 — 2022 · 20 games

Season	Team	Line value	WEPA/play	YoY Δ	Total EPA
2020	Hawai'i	7.6	0.435	—	196.1
2022	San José State	5.7	0.406	-0.03	198.3

Chart shows per-game EPA (bars) and rolling 5-game average (line). Season breaks marked with dashed lines. Line value = est. points over replacement per game.