North Carolina vs. Georgia Tech: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
UNCTeam statsGT
- Q4 1:13GTJeff Sims 50 Yd Run (Brent Cimaglia Kick)22–45
- Q4 4:07GTBrent Cimaglia 31 Yd Field Goal 22–38
- Q4 11:19UNCJosh Downs 4 Yd pass from Sam Howell (Sam Howell Pass to Cayden Baker for Two-Point Conversion)22–35
- Q4 13:52GTMalachi Carter 27 Yd pass from Jeff Sims (Peje' Harris Pass to Dylan Leonard for Two-Point Conversion)14–35
- Q3 3:50UNCKamari Morales 7 Yd pass from Sam Howell (Grayson Atkins Kick)14–27
- Q3 5:39GTJahmyr Gibbs 4 Yd Run (Brent Cimaglia Kick)7–27
- Q3 10:53GTJeff Sims 1 Yd Run (Brent Cimaglia Kick)7–20
- Q2 2:41GTJeff Sims 11 Yd Run (Brent Cimaglia Kick)7–13
- Q2 13:34GTBrent Cimaglia 32 Yd Field Goal 7–6
- Q2 14:21GTBrent Cimaglia 34 Yd Field Goal 7–3
- Q1 10:23UNCSam Howell 23 Yd Run (Grayson Atkins Kick)7–0
How the model called it
What the numbers say
- GT lived on explosives rather than sustaining drives — a profile that vanished once those chunk plays were tackled. 14% explosive on a 39% success rate
- PassSam Howell 25/39, 306 YDS, 2 TD
- RushTy Chandler 17 CAR, 48 YDS
- RecEmery Simmons 3 REC, 110 YDS
- PassJeff Sims 10/13, 112 YDS, 1 TD
- RushJeff Sims 10 CAR, 128 YDS, 3 TD
- RecMalachi Carter 3 REC, 48 YDS, 1 TD
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsGT up 13 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,180 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q3 10:53GT +25%
Jeff Sims run for 1 yd for a TD NORTH CAROLINA Penalty, Substitution Infraction, declined, (Brent Cimaglia KICK)
- Q2 2:41GT +25%
Jeff Sims run for 11 yds for a TD, (Brent Cimaglia KICK)
- Q3 3:50UNC +16%
Sam Howell pass complete to Kamari Morales for 7 yds for a TD, (Grayson Atkins KICK)
- Q3 5:39GT +14%
Jahmyr Gibbs run for 4 yds for a TD, (Brent Cimaglia KICK)
- Q4 14:40GT +13%
Jahmyr Gibbs run for 3 yds to the NCaro 35
- Q3 5:45GT +11%
Jeff Sims run for 5 yds to the NCaro 4
FAQ
What was the final score of North Carolina vs. Georgia Tech?
North Carolina 22, Georgia Tech 45.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked UNC, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
| UNC | GT | |
|---|---|---|
| 369 | Total yards | 394 |
| 306 | Passing yards | 133 |
| 63 | Rushing yards | 261 |
| 18 | First downs | 19 |
| 6-14 | 3rd down | 3-11 |
| 1-3 | 4th down | 1-1 |
| 25/39 | Comp/Att | 13/19 |
| 7.8 | Yards per pass | 7.0 |
| 1.8 | Yards per rush | 6.1 |
| 3 | Turnovers | 0 |
| 7-69 | Penalties | 5-40 |
| 30:05 | Possession | 29:55 |
Costliest call
Q1 11:26 GT punt on 4th & 1 at GT 28. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 1.05 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 1:13GTJeff Sims 50 Yd Run (Brent Cimaglia Kick)22–45
- Q4 4:07GTBrent Cimaglia 31 Yd Field Goal 22–38
- Q4 11:19UNCJosh Downs 4 Yd pass from Sam Howell (Sam Howell Pass to Cayden Baker for Two-Point Conversion)22–35
- Q4 13:52GTMalachi Carter 27 Yd pass from Jeff Sims (Peje' Harris Pass to Dylan Leonard for Two-Point Conversion)14–35
- Q3 3:50UNCKamari Morales 7 Yd pass from Sam Howell (Grayson Atkins Kick)14–27
- Q3 5:39GTJahmyr Gibbs 4 Yd Run (Brent Cimaglia Kick)7–27
- Q3 10:53GTJeff Sims 1 Yd Run (Brent Cimaglia Kick)7–20
- Q2 2:41GTJeff Sims 11 Yd Run (Brent Cimaglia Kick)7–13
- Q2 13:34GTBrent Cimaglia 32 Yd Field Goal 7–6
- Q2 14:21GTBrent Cimaglia 34 Yd Field Goal 7–3
- Q1 10:23UNCSam Howell 23 Yd Run (Grayson Atkins Kick)7–0
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (GT Elo 1383, UNC Elo 1804 for reference), on a neutral field. That projects GT +16.8 (15% to win) — 2.3 points clear of UNC's market line of +14.5. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2021
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles#7 of 112 in 2021 by biggest miss · #23 of 128 in 2021 by longest odds · #47 of 62 in 2021 by biggest poll gap.
The 2021 upset archive →Georgia Tech leads 34–22–3 · Georgia Tech has won 4 straight · 49% have been one-possession games
| UNC | GT | |
|---|---|---|
| +1.1 (#70) | CORE overall | -19.0 (#112) |
| +6 / +5 | offense / defense | -8 / +11 |
| 2.89 | points / drive | 1.62 |
| 2.73 | allowed / drive | 3.04 |
| 21% | three-and-outs | 29% |
| -2 | pass over expected | -6 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →