#19Ty Chandler

RB·North Carolina·20213.4 pts line valueDay 2 (Rds 2–3)

Ty Chandler is a Explosive Back for North Carolina. Ty's 2021 season ranks in the 57th percentile nationally by opponent-adjusted EPA per play across 195 plays — a average rate for the RB.

What projects, and what doesn't · RBs · held out 2019-2025

How well one season predicts the next, measured on seasons the model never trained on. 1.00 would be perfectly predictable; 0.00 means last year told us nothing.

Usage share (volume)0.52
Beats guessing the RB average by 18%. n=4,219 RB seasons
EPA per play (efficiency)0.10
Not projectable — we do not forecast this. n=3,575 RB seasons
Total EPA (value)0.41
Beats guessing the RB average by 9%. n=3,575 RB seasons

Across all positions, usage carries year to year at 0.47 and efficiency at 0.07. So Ty Chandler's projection is a projection of opportunity — how much of the offense he runs through. How well he converts it is something this model does not claim to know a year in advance, and the number above is why.

2021 Production

Rushing

1092 Rush yards13 Rush TD182 Carries6.0 Yards/carry

Receiving

15 Receptions216 Rec yards1 Rec TD14.4 Yards/rec

Returns

6 Kick returns70 KR yards0 KR TD

Performance Analysis · 2021 · vs RB peers

Efficiency57
Volume63
Explosiveness60
Consistency73
Receiving33

Player type

Explosive Back

Elite per-carry efficiency — breaks big runs and creates chunk plays at a top rate while in a limited role.

Big-play threatHigh EPA per carryCapitalises on opportunities

Peer percentiles

Opponent-adjusted EPA (WEPA/play)57th %ile · average

Game-to-game consistency73th %ile · average

Key findings

▸High game-to-game consistency — reliable floor each week.
▸5 high-impact games (EPA/play > 0.4) this season — elite ceiling.
▸Particularly dangerous on passing downs — efficiency spikes in obvious pass situations.
▸Production faded as the season progressed — 0.16 EPA/play decline from first to second half.
▸Peak game: 0.74 EPA/play in Wk 3 vs Virginia (SP+ 7).

NIL Market Tier· 2021

On3 valuation ↗

Starter

Meaningful starter. Local collective + position-group deals.

Tier is a model estimate based on position, school brand, performance rank, and usage — not a reported deal. NIL deals are private. For a real market valuation, see On3's NIL profile, which factors in social following and actual deal tracking.

Historical Comparables · RB · efficiency + volume + value

Players from 2013–2025 matched on EPA efficiency, play volume, and adjusted value tier — not just one metric.

Player	Team	Yr	Plays	WEPA/play	Line val	Total EPA
Travis Etienne	Clemson	2019	213	0.470	4.7	100.1
Saquon Barkley	Penn State	2017	240	0.410	5.2	98.4
Clyde Edwards-Helaire	LSU	2019	216	0.490	5.0	105.8
Nick Wilson	Arizona	2014	250	0.410	5.2	102.5
James Flanders	Tulsa	2016	266	0.390	4.9	103.7

Comps are statistical — efficiency, volume, and value tier all factor in. Style and conference context differ.

Game Log · box score + EPA, week by week

EPA per play · x-axis: weekabove 0 = added points · below = lost

Wk	Opponent	Result	Opp SP+	Car	Rush Yds	Avg	Rush TD	Rec	Rec Yds	Rec TD	EPA/play
1	@Virginia Tech	L10-17	2.4	10	66	6.6	0	1	9	0	0.33
2	vsGeorgia State	W59-17	1.8	15	58	3.9	1	1	15	0	0.37
3	vsVirginia	W59-39	7.2	20	198	9.9	2	—	—	—	0.74
4	vsGeorgia Tech	L22-45	-6.7	17	48	2.8	0	1	12	0	-0.02
5	vsDuke	W38-7	-13.5	12	53	4.4	1	2	87	1	0.73
6	vsFlorida State	L25-35	7.6	14	61	4.4	1	—	—	—	0.20
7	vsMiami	W45-42	10.8	18	104	5.8	2	2	17	0	0.31
9	@Notre Dame	L34-44	17.4	15	83	5.5	2	1	18	0	0.27
10	vsWake Forest	W58-55	10.1	22	213	9.7	4	1	30	0	0.57
11	@Pittsburgh	L23-30	17.6	14	42	3.0	0	3	12	0	-0.10
12	vsWofford	W34-14	—	10	78	7.8	0	1	8	0	0.41
13	@NC State	L30-34	16.1	6	59	9.8	0	1	7	0	0.48
1	vsSouth Carolina	L21-38	3.9	9	29	3.2	0	1	1	0	-0.21

Usage & Situational · Pro

Snap-share proxy

Overall

22.2%

Passing plays

4.0%

Rushing plays

39.2%

Standard downs

26.5%

Passing downs

12.6%

EPA by down type

Standard downs: 0.21
Passing downs: 0.95
Pass / Rush EPA: 1.11 / 0.26

Usage = share of team plays (CFBD has no true snap counts).

Career · rolling EPA, game by game

Per-game EPA5-game avg

EPA per play · 2021 · 13 games

Chart shows per-game EPA (bars) and rolling 5-game average (line). Season breaks marked with dashed lines. Line value = est. points over replacement per game.