#22Clyde Edwards-Helaire

RB·LSU·20195.0 pts line valueDay 2 (Rds 2–3)

Clyde Edwards-Helaire is a Pass-Catching Back for LSU. Clyde's 2019 season ranks in the 95th percentile nationally by opponent-adjusted EPA per play across 262 plays — a elite rate for the RB.

What projects, and what doesn't · RBs · held out 2019-2025

How well one season predicts the next, measured on seasons the model never trained on. 1.00 would be perfectly predictable; 0.00 means last year told us nothing.

Usage share (volume)0.52
Beats guessing the RB average by 18%. n=4,219 RB seasons
EPA per play (efficiency)0.10
Not projectable — we do not forecast this. n=3,575 RB seasons
Total EPA (value)0.41
Beats guessing the RB average by 9%. n=3,575 RB seasons

Across all positions, usage carries year to year at 0.47 and efficiency at 0.07. So Clyde Edwards-Helaire's projection is a projection of opportunity — how much of the offense he runs through. How well he converts it is something this model does not claim to know a year in advance, and the number above is why.

2019 Production

Rushing

1414 Rush yards16 Rush TD215 Carries6.6 Yards/carry

Receiving

55 Receptions453 Rec yards1 Rec TD8.2 Yards/rec

Returns

16 Kick returns214 KR yards0 KR TD

Performance Analysis · 2019 · vs RB peers

Efficiency95
Volume73
Explosiveness72
Consistency71
Receiving77

Player type

Pass-Catching Back

Third-down weapon out of the backfield. Routes, hands, and separation in coverage define this role as much as rushing.

3rd-down backReceiving threatPass protection

Peer percentiles

Opponent-adjusted EPA (WEPA/play)95th %ile · elite

Game-to-game consistency71th %ile · average

Key findings

▸Top-10% efficiency among RBs — elite opponent-adjusted EPA rate.
▸High game-to-game consistency — reliable floor each week.
▸4 high-impact games (EPA/play > 0.4) this season — elite ceiling.
▸Strong second-half surge — EPA/play improved 0.16 from the first to second half of the season.
▸Peak game: 1.64 EPA/play in Wk 13 vs Arkansas (SP+ -11).

Historical Comparables · RB · efficiency + volume + value

Players from 2013–2025 matched on EPA efficiency, play volume, and adjusted value tier — not just one metric.

Player	Team	Yr	Plays	WEPA/play	Line val	Total EPA
Nick Wilson	Arizona	2014	250	0.410	5.2	102.5
Tyjae Spears	Tulane	2022	234	0.450	5.7	105.3
Najee Harris	Alabama	2020	275	0.440	5.9	121.0
Saquon Barkley	Penn State	2017	240	0.410	5.2	98.4
LeVante Bellamy	Western Michigan	2019	269	0.400	5.4	107.6

Comps are statistical — efficiency, volume, and value tier all factor in. Style and conference context differ.

Game Log · box score + EPA, week by week

EPA per play · x-axis: weekabove 0 = added points · below = lost

Wk	Opponent	Result	Opp SP+	Car	Rush Yds	Avg	Rush TD	Rec	Rec Yds	Rec TD	EPA/play
1	vsGeorgia Southern	W55-3	-4.5	9	45	5.0	1	4	31	0	0.29
2	@Texas	W45-38	12.0	15	87	5.8	1	4	15	0	0.18
3	vsNorthwestern State	W65-14	—	13	50	3.8	2	—	—	—	0.27
4	@Vanderbilt	W66-38	-10.4	14	106	7.6	1	1	1	0	0.41
6	vsUtah State	W42-6	-4.3	14	72	5.1	0	1	12	0	0.10
7	vsFlorida	W42-28	24.0	13	134	10.3	2	—	—	—	0.56
8	@Mississippi State	W36-13	3.5	11	53	4.8	0	2	15	0	0.37
9	vsAuburn	W23-20	21.0	26	136	5.2	1	7	51	0	0.21
11	@Alabama	W46-41	32.4	20	103	5.2	3	9	77	1	0.57
12	@Ole Miss	W58-37	2.9	23	172	7.5	1	4	22	0	0.34
13	vsArkansas	W56-20	-10.6	6	188	31.3	3	7	65	0	1.64
14	vsTexas A&M	W50-7	15.0	18	87	4.8	1	4	49	0	0.20
15	vsGeorgia	W37-10	26.8	15	57	3.8	0	7	61	0	0.11
1	vsClemson	W42-25	28.1	16	110	6.9	0	5	54	0	0.23
1	vsOklahoma	W63-28	22.9	2	14	7.0	0	—	—	—	0.23

Usage & Situational · Pro

Snap-share proxy

Overall

25.4%

Passing plays

10.8%

Rushing plays

44.7%

Standard downs

29.3%

Passing downs

13.7%

EPA by down type

Standard downs: 0.33
Passing downs: 0.29
Pass / Rush EPA: 0.40 / 0.30

Usage = share of team plays (CFBD has no true snap counts).

Career · rolling EPA, game by game

Per-game EPA5-game avg

EPA per play · 2019 · 15 games

Chart shows per-game EPA (bars) and rolling 5-game average (line). Season breaks marked with dashed lines. Line value = est. points over replacement per game.