Tennessee vs. Missouri: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
TENNTeam statsMIZ
- Q4 1:46TENNMarcus Pierce Jr. 27 Yd Run (Chase McGrath Kick)62–24
- Q4 5:47MIZD'ionte Smith 4 Yd Run (Harrison Mevis Kick)55–24
- Q3 7:25TENNCedric Tillman 24 Yd pass from Hendon Hooker (Chase McGrath Kick)55–17
- Q3 11:32MIZKris Abrams-Draine 100 Yd Kickoff Return (Harrison Mevis Kick)45–16
- Q3 11:44TENNChase McGrath 27 Yd Field Goal 45–9
- Q2 0:19TENNChase McGrath 25 Yd Field Goal 42–9
- Q2 4:49TENNHendon Hooker 1 Yd Run (Chase McGrath Kick)42–10
- Q2 10:01TENNVelus Jones Jr. 35 Yd pass from Hendon Hooker (Chase McGrath Kick)35–10
- Q2 11:38MIZTyler Badie 6 Yd Run (Harrison Mevis Kick)28–10
- Q1 1:31TENNTiyon Evans 1 Yd Run (Chase McGrath Kick)28–3
- Q1 3:13TENNTiyon Evans 92 Yd Run (Chase McGrath Kick)21–3
- Q1 5:21TENNTiyon Evans 8 Yd Run (Chase McGrath Kick)14–3
- Q1 7:13MIZHarrison Mevis 43 Yd Field Goal 7–3
- Q1 12:28TENNJaVonta Payton 35 Yd pass from Hendon Hooker (Chase McGrath Kick)7–0
How the model called it
What the numbers say
- MIZ played behind the sticks — third downs that long convert rarely, and TENN did not face the same ones. 3rd & 8.6 vs 3rd & 6.0
- PassHendon Hooker 15/19, 225 YDS, 3 TD
- RushTiyon Evans 15 CAR, 156 YDS, 3 TD
- RecVelus Jones Jr. 7 REC, 79 YDS, 1 TD
- PassConnor Bazelak 27/44, 322 YDS, 2 INT
- RushTyler Badie 21 CAR, 41 YDS, 1 TD
- RecKeke Chism 4 REC, 76 YDS
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsTENN up 38 entering the 4th quarter. Across 183 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q1 5:21TENN +18%
Tiyon Evans run for 8 yds for a TD, (Chase McGrath KICK)
- Q1 12:28TENN +18%
Hendon Hooker pass complete to JaVonta Payton for 35 yds for a TD, (Chase McGrath KICK)
- Q1 3:13TENN +16%
Tiyon Evans run for 92 yds for a TD, (Chase McGrath KICK)
- Q1 1:31TENN +9%
Tiyon Evans run for 1 yd for a TD, (Chase McGrath KICK)
- Q2 10:01TENN +7%
Hendon Hooker pass complete to Velus Jones Jr. for 35 yds for a TD, (Chase McGrath KICK)
- Q1 7:13MIZ +7%
Harrison Mevis 43 yd FG GOOD
FAQ
What was the final score of Tennessee vs. Missouri?
Tennessee 62, Missouri 24.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked MIZ, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
| TENN | MIZ | |
|---|---|---|
| 683 | Total yards | 396 |
| 225 | Passing yards | 322 |
| 458 | Rushing yards | 74 |
| 35 | First downs | 21 |
| 6-10 | 3rd down | 7-16 |
| 1-2 | 4th down | 2-3 |
| 15/19 | Comp/Att | 27/44 |
| 11.8 | Yards per pass | 7.3 |
| 7.8 | Yards per rush | 2.5 |
| 0 | Turnovers | 2 |
| 2-20 | Penalties | 9-97 |
| 30:58 | Possession | 29:02 |
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 1:46TENNMarcus Pierce Jr. 27 Yd Run (Chase McGrath Kick)62–24
- Q4 5:47MIZD'ionte Smith 4 Yd Run (Harrison Mevis Kick)55–24
- Q3 7:25TENNCedric Tillman 24 Yd pass from Hendon Hooker (Chase McGrath Kick)55–17
- Q3 11:32MIZKris Abrams-Draine 100 Yd Kickoff Return (Harrison Mevis Kick)45–16
- Q3 11:44TENNChase McGrath 27 Yd Field Goal 45–9
- Q2 0:19TENNChase McGrath 25 Yd Field Goal 42–9
- Q2 4:49TENNHendon Hooker 1 Yd Run (Chase McGrath Kick)42–10
- Q2 10:01TENNVelus Jones Jr. 35 Yd pass from Hendon Hooker (Chase McGrath Kick)35–10
- Q2 11:38MIZTyler Badie 6 Yd Run (Harrison Mevis Kick)28–10
- Q1 1:31TENNTiyon Evans 1 Yd Run (Chase McGrath Kick)28–3
- Q1 3:13TENNTiyon Evans 92 Yd Run (Chase McGrath Kick)21–3
- Q1 5:21TENNTiyon Evans 8 Yd Run (Chase McGrath Kick)14–3
- Q1 7:13MIZHarrison Mevis 43 Yd Field Goal 7–3
- Q1 12:28TENNJaVonta Payton 35 Yd pass from Hendon Hooker (Chase McGrath Kick)7–0
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (MIZ Elo 1502, TENN Elo 1482 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects MIZ -3.2 (60% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2021
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles#4 of 112 in 2021 by biggest miss · #100 of 128 in 2021 by longest odds.
The 2021 upset archive →The series is level at 6–6 · 25% have been one-possession games
| TENN | MIZ | |
|---|---|---|
| +18.7 (#9) | CORE overall | -5.2 (#88) |
| +17 / -2 | offense / defense | +3 / +8 |
| 3.01 | points / drive | 2.19 |
| 2.39 | allowed / drive | 3.13 |
| 21% | three-and-outs | 22% |
| -3 | pass over expected | +1 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →