New Mexico vs. Wyoming: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
UNMTeam statsWYO
- Q2 0:29UNMAaron Dumas 2 Yd Run (Andrew Shelley Kick)14–3
- Q2 4:30WYOJohn Hoyland 27 Yd Field Goal 7–3
- Q1 1:22UNMTrace Bruckler 43 Yd pass from Isaiah Chavez (Andrew Shelley Kick)7–0
How the model called it
- PassIsaiah Chavez 10/11, 112 YDS, 1 TD
- RushIsaiah Chavez 16 CAR, 49 YDS
- RecKyle Jarvis 2 REC, 46 YDS
- PassSean Chambers 11/23, 96 YDS, 1 INT
- RushXazavian Valladay 14 CAR, 41 YDS
- RecIsaiah Neyor 2 REC, 45 YDS
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsUNM up 11 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,142 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q2 0:29UNM +27%
Aaron Dumas run for 2 yds for a TD (Andrew Shelley KICK)
- Q4 5:08UNM +19%
Isaiah Chavez run for 3 yds to the Wyom 39
- Q1 1:22UNM +17%
Isaiah Chavez pass complete to Trace Bruckler for 43 yds for a TD (Andrew Shelley KICK)
- Q4 15:00UNM +16%
Bobby Cole run for 3 yds to the NMex 39
- Q4 12:15UNM +12%
Andrew Shelley 30 yd FG MISSED
- Q3 10:57WYO +8%
Levi Williams pass incomplete
FAQ
What was the final score of New Mexico vs. Wyoming?
New Mexico 14, Wyoming 3.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked WYO, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
| UNM | WYO | |
|---|---|---|
| 259 | Total yards | 255 |
| 112 | Passing yards | 147 |
| 147 | Rushing yards | 108 |
| 12 | First downs | 16 |
| 3-14 | 3rd down | 3-13 |
| 3-4 | 4th down | 1-3 |
| 10/11 | Comp/Att | 14/30 |
| 10.2 | Yards per pass | 4.9 |
| 3.3 | Yards per rush | 3.0 |
| 0 | Turnovers | 2 |
| 5-45 | Penalties | 7-39 |
| 34:14 | Possession | 25:46 |
Costliest call
Q4 5:01 UNM punt on 4th & 3 at WYO 39. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 1.21 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q2 0:29UNMAaron Dumas 2 Yd Run (Andrew Shelley Kick)14–3
- Q2 4:30WYOJohn Hoyland 27 Yd Field Goal 7–3
- Q1 1:22UNMTrace Bruckler 43 Yd pass from Isaiah Chavez (Andrew Shelley Kick)7–0
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (WYO Elo 1551, UNM Elo 1165 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects WYO -17.8 (88% to win) — 2.2 points clear of UNM's market line of -20. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2021
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles#26 of 112 in 2021 by biggest miss · #14 of 128 in 2021 by longest odds.
The 2021 upset archive →Wyoming leads 41–36 · Wyoming has won 3 straight · 40% have been one-possession games
| UNM | WYO | |
|---|---|---|
| -25.2 (#122) | CORE overall | +0.7 (#71) |
| -25 / +1 | offense / defense | +1 / +1 |
| 0.70 | points / drive | 2.16 |
| 2.35 | allowed / drive | 2.02 |
| 40% | three-and-outs | 29% |
| -11 | pass over expected | -11 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →