Liberty vs. UAB: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
LIBTeam statsUAB
- Q4 4:53UABJermaine Brown Jr. 59 Yd Run (Matt Quinn Kick)36–12
- Q4 6:21UABMac McWilliams Defensive PAT Conversion36–5
- Q4 6:21LIBTreon Sibley 33 Yd pass from Johnathan Bennett (Brayden Beck PAT blocked)36–5
- Q4 12:45LIBJoshua Mack 8 Yd Run (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)30–3
- Q3 3:11LIBMalik Willis 1 Yd Run (Brayden Beck Kick)24–3
- Q3 10:33LIBCJ Daniels 39 Yd pass from Malik Willis (Brayden Beck Kick)17–3
- Q3 12:59LIBMalik Willis 8 Yd Run (Brayden Beck Kick)10–3
- Q2 8:54LIBBrayden Beck 21 Yd Field Goal 3–3
- Q1 10:44UABMatt Quinn 37 Yd Field Goal 0–3
How the model called it
What the numbers say
- LIB played behind the sticks — third downs that long convert rarely, and UAB did not face the same ones. 3rd & 10.9 vs 3rd & 7.4
- PassMalik Willis 13/19, 287 YDS, 1 TD
- RushMalik Willis 15 CAR, 144 YDS, 2 TD
- RecDeMario Douglas 4 REC, 128 YDS
- PassDylan Hopkins 12/26, 152 YDS, 1 INT
- RushJermaine Brown Jr. 9 CAR, 106 YDS, 1 TD
- RecRaJae' Johnson 1 REC, 53 YDS
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsLIB up 21 entering the 4th quarter. Across 671 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q3 12:59LIB +23%
Malik Willis run for 8 yds for a TD, (Brayden Beck KICK)
- Q3 10:33LIB +20%
Malik Willis pass complete to CJ Daniels for 39 yds for a TD, (Brayden Beck KICK)
- Q2 8:54LIB +9%
Brayden Beck 21 yd FG GOOD
- Q2 0:00UAB +6%
Matt Quinn 50 yd FG MISSED
- Q3 15:00LIB +5%
Malik Willis pass complete to Demario Douglas for 34 yds to the UAB 41 for a 1ST down
FAQ
What was the final score of Liberty vs. UAB?
Liberty 36, UAB 12.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (LIB) was correct.
| LIB | UAB | |
|---|---|---|
| 545 | Total yards | 325 |
| 331 | Passing yards | 152 |
| 214 | Rushing yards | 173 |
| 24 | First downs | 14 |
| 4-9 | 3rd down | 6-15 |
| 0-0 | 4th down | 0-1 |
| 15/21 | Comp/Att | 12/26 |
| 15.8 | Yards per pass | 5.8 |
| 5.5 | Yards per rush | 4.8 |
| 1 | Turnovers | 1 |
| 6-65 | Penalties | 9-94 |
| 31:49 | Possession | 28:11 |
Costliest call
Q2 8:54 LIB field goal on 4th & 3 at UAB 3. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 0.83 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 4:53UABJermaine Brown Jr. 59 Yd Run (Matt Quinn Kick)36–12
- Q4 6:21UABMac McWilliams Defensive PAT Conversion36–5
- Q4 6:21LIBTreon Sibley 33 Yd pass from Johnathan Bennett (Brayden Beck PAT blocked)36–5
- Q4 12:45LIBJoshua Mack 8 Yd Run (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)30–3
- Q3 3:11LIBMalik Willis 1 Yd Run (Brayden Beck Kick)24–3
- Q3 10:33LIBCJ Daniels 39 Yd pass from Malik Willis (Brayden Beck Kick)17–3
- Q3 12:59LIBMalik Willis 8 Yd Run (Brayden Beck Kick)10–3
- Q2 8:54LIBBrayden Beck 21 Yd Field Goal 3–3
- Q1 10:44UABMatt Quinn 37 Yd Field Goal 0–3
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (UAB Elo 1505, LIB Elo 1602 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects UAB +1.5 (47% to win) — 4.5 points clear of LIB's market line of -3. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2021
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles#42 of 112 in 2021 by biggest miss · #97 of 128 in 2021 by longest odds.
The 2021 upset archive →| LIB | UAB | |
|---|---|---|
| +7.8 (#47) | CORE overall | +13.3 (#25) |
| +4 / -4 | offense / defense | +9 / -4 |
| 2.77 | points / drive | 2.54 |
| 1.80 | allowed / drive | 1.99 |
| 23% | three-and-outs | 34% |
| +1 | pass over expected | -5 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →