Colorado State vs. Toledo: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
CSUTeam statsTOL
- Q4 1:00CSUCayden Camper 23 Yd Field Goal 22–6
- Q4 5:25CSUCayden Camper 47 Yd Field Goal 19–6
- Q4 7:45CSUCayden Camper 29 Yd Field Goal 16–6
- Q3 3:03CSUThomas Pannunzio 70 Yd Punt Return (Cayden Camper Kick)13–6
- Q3 6:12TOLThomas Cluckey 38 Yd Field Goal 6–6
- Q3 8:30CSUCayden Camper 42 Yd Field Goal 6–3
- Q2 6:00TOLThomas Cluckey 43 Yd Field Goal 3–3
- Q1 5:15CSUCayden Camper 31 Yd Field Goal 3–0
How the model called it
- PassTodd Centeio 11/27, 110 YDS
- RushDavid Bailey 30 CAR, 132 YDS
- RecTrey McBride 9 REC, 109 YDS
- PassCarter Bradley 22/37, 254 YDS
- RushBryant Koback 13 CAR, 25 YDS
- RecBryce Mitchell 5 REC, 87 YDS
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsCSU up 7 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,299 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q3 3:03CSU +22%
Bailey Flint punt for 55 yds, Thomas Pannunzio returns for 70 yds for a TD, (Cayden Camper KICK)
- Q4 7:45CSU +21%
Cayden Camper 29 yd FG GOOD
- Q3 6:12TOL +19%
Thomas Cluckey 38 yd FG GOOD
- Q3 8:30CSU +12%
Cayden Camper 42 yd FG GOOD
- Q4 14:46CSU +12%
David Bailey run for 9 yds to the ColSt 28
- Q4 11:33TOL +10%
Bryant Koback run for 2 yds to the Toled 41
FAQ
What was the final score of Colorado State vs. Toledo?
Colorado State 22, Toledo 6.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked TOL, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
| CSU | TOL | |
|---|---|---|
| 319 | Total yards | 283 |
| 110 | Passing yards | 270 |
| 209 | Rushing yards | 13 |
| 18 | First downs | 11 |
| 4-17 | 3rd down | 4-18 |
| 1-2 | 4th down | 1-4 |
| 11/28 | Comp/Att | 25/44 |
| 3.9 | Yards per pass | 6.1 |
| 4.3 | Yards per rush | 0.5 |
| 1 | Turnovers | 1 |
| 7-60 | Penalties | 11-89 |
| 31:00 | Possession | 29:00 |
Costliest call
Q1 11:50 CSU punt on 4th & 4 at TOL 43. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 0.82 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 1:00CSUCayden Camper 23 Yd Field Goal 22–6
- Q4 5:25CSUCayden Camper 47 Yd Field Goal 19–6
- Q4 7:45CSUCayden Camper 29 Yd Field Goal 16–6
- Q3 3:03CSUThomas Pannunzio 70 Yd Punt Return (Cayden Camper Kick)13–6
- Q3 6:12TOLThomas Cluckey 38 Yd Field Goal 6–6
- Q3 8:30CSUCayden Camper 42 Yd Field Goal 6–3
- Q2 6:00TOLThomas Cluckey 43 Yd Field Goal 3–3
- Q1 5:15CSUCayden Camper 31 Yd Field Goal 3–0
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (TOL Elo 1446, CSU Elo 1381 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects TOL -5 (64% to win) — 9.5 points clear of CSU's market line of -14.5. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2021
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles#29 of 112 in 2021 by biggest miss · #24 of 128 in 2021 by longest odds.
The 2021 upset archive →| CSU | TOL | |
|---|---|---|
| +2.5 (#62) | CORE overall | +4.5 (#57) |
| -2 / -4 | offense / defense | -2 / -6 |
| 1.70 | points / drive | 2.51 |
| 1.99 | allowed / drive | 1.83 |
| 24% | three-and-outs | 20% |
| -6 | pass over expected | -2 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →