Boise State vs. Fresno State: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
BOISTeam statsFRES
- Q4 1:10FRESZane Pope 5 Yd pass from Jake Haener (Cesar Silva Kick)40–14
- Q4 2:48BOISTyler Crowe 7 Yd Run (Jonah Dalmas Kick)40–7
- Q4 7:41BOISAndrew Van Buren 1 Yd Run (Jonah Dalmas Kick)33–7
- Q4 13:30BOISJonah Dalmas 27 Yd Field Goal 26–7
- Q3 6:43BOISKhalil Shakir 10 Yd pass from Hank Bachmeier (Jonah Dalmas Kick)23–7
- Q2 0:41BOISJonah Dalmas 32 Yd Field Goal 16–7
- Q2 5:50FRESKeric Wheatfall 10 Yd pass from Jake Haener (Cesar Silva Kick)13–7
- Q2 12:45BOISJonah Dalmas 27 Yd Field Goal 13–0
- Q1 6:38BOISAndrew Van Buren 1 Yd Run (Jonah Dalmas Kick)10–0
- Q1 7:17BOISJonah Dalmas 47 Yd Field Goal 3–0
How the model called it
- PassHank Bachmeier 15/27, 283 YDS, 1 TD
- RushGeorge Holani 21 CAR, 117 YDS
- RecGeorge Holani 2 REC, 69 YDS
- PassJake Haener 22/38, 279 YDS, 2 TD, 3 INT
- RushRonnie Rivers 12 CAR, 79 YDS
- RecKeric Wheatfall 6 REC, 81 YDS, 1 TD
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsBOIS up 16 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,243 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q1 6:38BOIS +18%
Andrew Van Buren run for 1 yd for a TD (Jonah Dalmas KICK)
- Q2 5:50FRES +17%
Jake Haener pass complete to Keric Wheatfall for 10 yds for a TD (Cesar Silva KICK)
- Q3 6:43BOIS +12%
Hank Bachmeier pass complete to Khalil Shakir for 10 yds for a TD (Jonah Dalmas KICK)
- Q2 0:41BOIS +9%
Jonah Dalmas 32 yd FG GOOD
- Q1 7:17BOIS +8%
Jonah Dalmas 47 yd FG GOOD
- Q2 12:45BOIS +7%
Jonah Dalmas 27 yd FG GOOD
FAQ
What was the final score of Boise State vs. Fresno State?
Boise State 40, Fresno State 14.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked FRES, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
| BOIS | FRES | |
|---|---|---|
| 470 | Total yards | 356 |
| 283 | Passing yards | 279 |
| 187 | Rushing yards | 77 |
| 24 | First downs | 18 |
| 6-15 | 3rd down | 4-13 |
| 0-1 | 4th down | 0-2 |
| 15/28 | Comp/Att | 22/38 |
| 10.1 | Yards per pass | 7.3 |
| 3.7 | Yards per rush | 2.9 |
| 1 | Turnovers | 3 |
| 4-50 | Penalties | 11-91 |
| 36:09 | Possession | 23:51 |
Costliest call
Q2 0:41 BOIS field goal on 4th & 1 at FRES 14. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 0.95 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 1:10FRESZane Pope 5 Yd pass from Jake Haener (Cesar Silva Kick)40–14
- Q4 2:48BOISTyler Crowe 7 Yd Run (Jonah Dalmas Kick)40–7
- Q4 7:41BOISAndrew Van Buren 1 Yd Run (Jonah Dalmas Kick)33–7
- Q4 13:30BOISJonah Dalmas 27 Yd Field Goal 26–7
- Q3 6:43BOISKhalil Shakir 10 Yd pass from Hank Bachmeier (Jonah Dalmas Kick)23–7
- Q2 0:41BOISJonah Dalmas 32 Yd Field Goal 16–7
- Q2 5:50FRESKeric Wheatfall 10 Yd pass from Jake Haener (Cesar Silva Kick)13–7
- Q2 12:45BOISJonah Dalmas 27 Yd Field Goal 13–0
- Q1 6:38BOISAndrew Van Buren 1 Yd Run (Jonah Dalmas Kick)10–0
- Q1 7:17BOISJonah Dalmas 47 Yd Field Goal 3–0
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (FRES Elo 1627, BOIS Elo 1682 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects FRES -0.2 (52% to win) — 3.8 points clear of BOIS's market line of -4. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2021
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles#32 of 112 in 2021 by biggest miss · #90 of 128 in 2021 by longest odds · #60 of 62 in 2021 by biggest poll gap.
The 2021 upset archive →Boise State leads 17–10 · Fresno State has won 3 straight · 22% have been one-possession games
| BOIS | FRES | |
|---|---|---|
| +10.9 (#31) | CORE overall | +9.9 (#40) |
| +3 / -8 | offense / defense | +5 / -5 |
| 2.29 | points / drive | 2.46 |
| 1.39 | allowed / drive | 1.72 |
| 21% | three-and-outs | 24% |
| +5 | pass over expected | +14 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →