#20Ronnie Rivers

RB·Fresno State·20182.5 pts line valueDay 3 (Rds 4–7)

Ronnie Rivers is a Explosive Back for Fresno State. Ronnie's 2018 season ranks in the 63th percentile nationally by opponent-adjusted EPA per play across 154 plays — a average rate for the RB.

What projects, and what doesn't · RBs · held out 2019-2025

How well one season predicts the next, measured on seasons the model never trained on. 1.00 would be perfectly predictable; 0.00 means last year told us nothing.

Usage share (volume)0.52
Beats guessing the RB average by 18%. n=4,219 RB seasons
EPA per play (efficiency)0.10
Not projectable — we do not forecast this. n=3,575 RB seasons
Total EPA (value)0.41
Beats guessing the RB average by 9%. n=3,575 RB seasons

Across all positions, usage carries year to year at 0.47 and efficiency at 0.07. So Ronnie Rivers's projection is a projection of opportunity — how much of the offense he runs through. How well he converts it is something this model does not claim to know a year in advance, and the number above is why.

2018 Production

Rushing

743 Rush yards10 Rush TD132 Carries5.6 Yards/carry

Receiving

26 Receptions311 Rec yards3 Rec TD12.0 Yards/rec

Returns

14 Punt returns138 PR yards0 PR TD

Performance Analysis · 2018 · vs RB peers

Efficiency63
Volume63
Explosiveness52
Consistency79
Receiving69

Player type

Explosive Back

Elite per-carry efficiency — breaks big runs and creates chunk plays at a top rate while in a limited role.

Big-play threatHigh EPA per carryCapitalises on opportunities

Peer percentiles

Opponent-adjusted EPA (WEPA/play)63th %ile · average

Game-to-game consistency79th %ile · above avg

Key findings

▸High game-to-game consistency — reliable floor each week.
▸7 high-impact games (EPA/play > 0.4) this season — elite ceiling.
▸Particularly dangerous on passing downs — efficiency spikes in obvious pass situations.
▸Production faded as the season progressed — 0.36 EPA/play decline from first to second half.
▸Peak game: 0.79 EPA/play in Wk 9 vs Hawai'i (SP+ -10).

Historical Comparables · RB · efficiency + volume + value

Players from 2013–2025 matched on EPA efficiency, play volume, and adjusted value tier — not just one metric.

Player	Team	Yr	Plays	WEPA/play	Line val	Total EPA
Travis Etienne	Clemson	2019	213	0.470	4.7	100.1
Clyde Edwards-Helaire	LSU	2019	216	0.490	5.0	105.8
Saquon Barkley	Penn State	2017	240	0.410	5.2	98.4
Nick Wilson	Arizona	2014	250	0.410	5.2	102.5
James Flanders	Tulsa	2016	266	0.390	4.9	103.7

Comps are statistical — efficiency, volume, and value tier all factor in. Style and conference context differ.

Game Log · box score + EPA, week by week

EPA per play · x-axis: weekabove 0 = added points · below = lost

Wk	Opponent	Result	Opp SP+	Car	Rush Yds	Avg	Rush TD	Rec	Rec Yds	Rec TD	EPA/play
5	vsToledo	W49-27	2.0	2	25	12.5	0	—	—	—	0.51
6	@Nevada	W21-3	-0.5	5	12	2.4	1	1	19	1	0.77
7	vsWyoming	W27-3	1.9	4	22	5.5	0	3	53	0	0.45
8	@New Mexico	W38-7	-9.5	11	48	4.4	2	4	69	1	0.69
9	vsHawai'i	W50-20	-10.4	11	125	11.4	1	1	9	0	0.79
10	@UNLV	W48-3	-11.1	12	33	2.8	1	1	17	0	-0.02
11	@Boise State	L17-24	12.2	7	33	4.7	1	7	60	0	0.50
12	vsSan Diego State	W23-14	6.0	22	78	3.5	1	1	6	0	0.08
13	vsSan José State	W31-13	-17.1	17	92	5.4	0	3	41	1	0.35
14	@Boise State	W19-16	12.2	17	63	3.7	1	1	4	0	-0.06
1	vsArizona State	W31-20	5.0	24	212	8.8	2	4	33	0	0.50

Usage & Situational · Pro

Snap-share proxy

Overall

21.9%

Passing plays

8.3%

Rushing plays

35.3%

Standard downs

25.8%

Passing downs

11.6%

EPA by down type

Standard downs: 0.29
Passing downs: 0.85
Pass / Rush EPA: 0.79 / 0.27

Usage = share of team plays (CFBD has no true snap counts).

Career · rolling EPA, game by game

Per-game EPA5-game avg

EPA per play · 2018 · 11 games

Chart shows per-game EPA (bars) and rolling 5-game average (line). Season breaks marked with dashed lines. Line value = est. points over replacement per game.