Troy vs. UL Monroe: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
TROYTeam statsULM
- Q4 0:36TROYJamontez Woods 4 Yd pass from Taylor Powell (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)16–29
- Q4 9:40ULMJa'Cquez Williams 96 Yd Interception Return (Calum Sutherland Kick)10–29
- Q4 13:52ULMTeam Safety10–22
- Q3 5:19ULMCalum Sutherland 32 Yd Field Goal 10–20
- Q3 8:57TROYLuke Whittemore 49 Yd pass from Taylor Powell (Brooks Buce Kick)10–17
- Q3 11:56ULMAndrew Henry 40 Yd Run (Calum Sutherland Kick)3–17
- Q2 1:31TROYBrooks Buce 32 Yd Field Goal 3–10
- Q2 10:14ULMCalum Sutherland 26 Yd Field Goal 0–10
- Q1 8:03ULMZach Jackson 23 Yd pass from Rhett Rodriguez (Calum Sutherland Kick)0–7
How the model called it
What the numbers say
- ULM lived on explosives rather than sustaining drives — a profile that vanished once those chunk plays were tackled. 14% explosive on a 29% success rate
- PassTaylor Powell 35/49, 311 YDS, 2 TD, 1 INT
- RushKimani Vidal 12 CAR, 60 YDS
- RecReggie Todd 6 REC, 83 YDS
- PassRhett Rodriguez 10/16, 131 YDS, 1 TD
- RushAndrew Henry 19 CAR, 108 YDS, 1 TD
- RecZach Jackson 4 REC, 80 YDS, 1 TD
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsULM up 10 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,140 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q3 11:56ULM +26%
Andrew Henry run for 40 yds for a TD, (Calum Sutherland KICK)
- Q3 8:57TROY +22%
Taylor Powell pass complete to Luke Whittemore for 49 yds for a TD, (Brooks Buce KICK)
- Q1 8:03ULM +17%
Rhett Rodriguez pass complete to Zach Jackson for 23 yds for a TD, (Calum Sutherland KICK)
- Q3 5:19ULM +16%
Calum Sutherland 32 yd FG GOOD
- Q4 14:36ULM +12%
Devyn McCormick punt for 55 yds, downed at the Troy 4
- Q2 10:14ULM +12%
Calum Sutherland 26 yd FG GOOD
FAQ
What was the final score of Troy vs. UL Monroe?
Troy 16, UL Monroe 29.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked TROY, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
| TROY | ULM | |
|---|---|---|
| 378 | Total yards | 290 |
| 311 | Passing yards | 168 |
| 67 | Rushing yards | 122 |
| 18 | First downs | 15 |
| 5-15 | 3rd down | 2-13 |
| 0-1 | 4th down | 1-1 |
| 35/49 | Comp/Att | 11/19 |
| 6.3 | Yards per pass | 8.8 |
| 2.9 | Yards per rush | 3.0 |
| 1 | Turnovers | 1 |
| 10-90 | Penalties | 7-50 |
| 31:32 | Possession | 28:28 |
Costliest call
Q1 2:25 ULM punt on 4th & 1 at ULM 29. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 1.11 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 0:36TROYJamontez Woods 4 Yd pass from Taylor Powell (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)16–29
- Q4 9:40ULMJa'Cquez Williams 96 Yd Interception Return (Calum Sutherland Kick)10–29
- Q4 13:52ULMTeam Safety10–22
- Q3 5:19ULMCalum Sutherland 32 Yd Field Goal 10–20
- Q3 8:57TROYLuke Whittemore 49 Yd pass from Taylor Powell (Brooks Buce Kick)10–17
- Q3 11:56ULMAndrew Henry 40 Yd Run (Calum Sutherland Kick)3–17
- Q2 1:31TROYBrooks Buce 32 Yd Field Goal 3–10
- Q2 10:14ULMCalum Sutherland 26 Yd Field Goal 0–10
- Q1 8:03ULMZach Jackson 23 Yd pass from Rhett Rodriguez (Calum Sutherland Kick)0–7
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (ULM Elo 1058, TROY Elo 1465 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects ULM +13.9 (19% to win) — 9.6 points clear of ULM's market line of +23.5. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2021
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles#11 of 112 in 2021 by biggest miss · #9 of 128 in 2021 by longest odds.
The 2021 upset archive →Troy leads 11–8 · 32% have been one-possession games
| TROY | ULM | |
|---|---|---|
| -6.9 (#93) | CORE overall | -18.5 (#110) |
| -10 / -3 | offense / defense | -13 / +5 |
| 1.52 | points / drive | 1.71 |
| 2.13 | allowed / drive | 2.85 |
| 38% | three-and-outs | 34% |
| +8 | pass over expected | -5 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →