Army vs. Ball State: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
ARMYTeam statsBALL
- Q4 2:09ARMYDrew Plitt rush for loss of 6 yards. SAFETY16–28
- Q4 8:00BALLYo'Heinz Tyler 18 Yd pass from Drew Plitt (Jake Chanove Kick)14–28
- Q2 1:37ARMYTyhier Tyler 2 Yd Run (Cole Talley Kick)14–21
- Q2 13:14ARMYTyhier Tyler 4 Yd Run (Cole Talley Kick)7–21
- Q1 4:48BALLCarson Steele 2 Yd Run (Jake Chanove Kick)0–21
- Q1 10:26BALLJayshon Jackson 44 Yd pass from Drew Plitt (Jake Chanove Kick)0–14
- Q1 14:48BALLJustin Hall 99 Yd Kickoff Return (Jake Chanove Kick)0–7
How the model called it
What the numbers say
- BALL played behind the sticks — third downs that long convert rarely, and ARMY did not face the same ones. 3rd & 8.5 vs 3rd & 5.9
- BALL lived on explosives rather than sustaining drives — a profile that vanished once those chunk plays were tackled. 13% explosive on a 38% success rate
- PassJemel Jones 5/11, 66 YDS, 1 INT
- RushTyhier Tyler 24 CAR, 63 YDS, 2 TD
- RecIsaiah Alston 2 REC, 36 YDS
- PassDrew Plitt 17/28, 233 YDS, 2 TD
- RushCarson Steele 8 CAR, 17 YDS, 1 TD
- RecYo'Heinz Tyler 5 REC, 85 YDS, 1 TD
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsBALL up 7 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,299 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q1 10:26BALL +18%
Drew Plitt pass complete to Jayshon Jackson for 44 yds for a TD, (Jake Chanove KICK)
- Q2 1:37ARMY +16%
Tyhier Tyler run for 2 yds for a TD, (Cole Talley KICK)
- Q1 4:48BALL +16%
Carson Steele run for 2 yds for a TD, (Jake Chanove KICK)
- Q2 13:14ARMY +14%
Tyhier Tyler run for 4 yds for a TD, (Cole Talley KICK)
- Q4 12:12BALL +13%
Carson Steele run for 5 yds to the BalSt 36
- Q4 8:00BALL +13%
PENALTY AWP Roughing The Passer (Broughton,Marquel) 15 yards from BSU35 to BSU50. NO PLAY
FAQ
What was the final score of Army vs. Ball State?
Army 16, Ball State 28.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked ARMY, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
| ARMY | BALL | |
|---|---|---|
| 279 | Total yards | 269 |
| 66 | Passing yards | 233 |
| 213 | Rushing yards | 36 |
| 18 | First downs | 12 |
| 4-16 | 3rd down | 3-12 |
| 3-6 | 4th down | 0-2 |
| 5/15 | Comp/Att | 17/28 |
| 4.4 | Yards per pass | 8.3 |
| 3.5 | Yards per rush | 1.4 |
| 2 | Turnovers | 0 |
| 4-40 | Penalties | 9-55 |
| 38:10 | Possession | 21:50 |
Costliest call
Q3 8:09 ARMY punt on 4th & 6 at BALL 38. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 0.69 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 2:09ARMYDrew Plitt rush for loss of 6 yards. SAFETY16–28
- Q4 8:00BALLYo'Heinz Tyler 18 Yd pass from Drew Plitt (Jake Chanove Kick)14–28
- Q2 1:37ARMYTyhier Tyler 2 Yd Run (Cole Talley Kick)14–21
- Q2 13:14ARMYTyhier Tyler 4 Yd Run (Cole Talley Kick)7–21
- Q1 4:48BALLCarson Steele 2 Yd Run (Jake Chanove Kick)0–21
- Q1 10:26BALLJayshon Jackson 44 Yd pass from Drew Plitt (Jake Chanove Kick)0–14
- Q1 14:48BALLJustin Hall 99 Yd Kickoff Return (Jake Chanove Kick)0–7
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (BALL Elo 1387, ARMY Elo 1644 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects BALL +7.9 (31% to win) — 2.6 points clear of BALL's market line of +10.5. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2021
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles#59 of 112 in 2021 by biggest miss · #50 of 128 in 2021 by longest odds.
The 2021 upset archive →| ARMY | BALL | |
|---|---|---|
| -0.5 (#74) | CORE overall | -16.7 (#107) |
| +2 / +2 | offense / defense | -11 / +6 |
| 3.18 | points / drive | 1.85 |
| 2.33 | allowed / drive | 2.44 |
| 19% | three-and-outs | 21% |
| -31 | pass over expected | +4 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →