Arizona State vs. UCLA: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
ASUTeam statsUCLA
- Q4 2:41ASUCristian Zendejas 32 Yd Field Goal 42–23
- Q4 6:43ASURachaad White 1 Yd Run (Cristian Zendejas Kick)39–23
- Q3 13:32ASURachaad White 49 Yd Run (DeaMonte Trayanum Run for Two-Point Conversion)32–23
- Q2 0:00UCLANicholas Barr-Mira 26 Yd Field Goal 24–23
- Q2 2:44ASURicky Pearsall 54 Yd pass from Jayden Daniels (Cristian Zendejas Kick)24–20
- Q2 3:51UCLANicholas Barr-Mira 21 Yd Field Goal 17–20
- Q2 8:26ASURicky Pearsall 65 Yd pass from Jayden Daniels (Cristian Zendejas Kick)17–17
- Q2 10:03UCLABrittain Brown 1 Yd Run (Nicholas Barr-Mira Kick)10–17
- Q2 11:59ASUDeaMonte Trayanum 6 Yd Run (Cristian Zendejas Kick)10–10
- Q2 14:57UCLAKyle Philips 3 Yd pass from Dorian Thompson-Robinson (Nicholas Barr-Mira Kick)3–10
- Q1 4:11ASUCristian Zendejas 25 Yd Field Goal 3–3
- Q1 10:40UCLANicholas Barr-Mira 48 Yd Field Goal 0–3
How the model called it
- PassJayden Daniels 13/19, 286 YDS, 2 TD
- RushRachaad White 9 CAR, 69 YDS, 2 TD
- RecRicky Pearsall 4 REC, 132 YDS, 2 TD
- PassDorian Thompson-Robinson 21/32, 235 YDS, 1 TD
- RushDorian Thompson-Robinson 19 CAR, 95 YDS
- RecGreg Dulcich 9 REC, 136 YDS
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsASU up 9 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,697 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q3 13:32ASU +25%
Rachaad White run for 49 yds for a TD (D. Trayanum Run For Two-point Conversion)
- Q2 8:26ASU +23%
Jayden Daniels pass complete to Ricky Pearsall for 65 yds for a TD (Cristian Zendejas KICK)
- Q2 2:44ASU +23%
Jayden Daniels pass complete to Ricky Pearsall for 54 yds for a TD (Cristian Zendejas KICK)
- Q2 10:03UCLA +20%
Brittain Brown run for 1 yd for a TD (Nicholas Barr-Mira KICK)
- Q2 11:59ASU +20%
DeaMonte Trayanum run for 6 yds for a TD (Cristian Zendejas KICK)
- Q2 14:57UCLA +19%
Dorian Thompson-Robinson pass complete to Kyle Philips for 3 yds for a TD (Nicholas Barr-Mira KICK)
FAQ
What was the final score of Arizona State vs. UCLA?
Arizona State 42, UCLA 23.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked UCLA, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
| ASU | UCLA | |
|---|---|---|
| 464 | Total yards | 434 |
| 286 | Passing yards | 235 |
| 177 | Rushing yards | 198 |
| 17 | First downs | 23 |
| 5-10 | 3rd down | 9-20 |
| 0-0 | 4th down | 2-5 |
| 13/19 | Comp/Att | 21/32 |
| 15.1 | Yards per pass | 7.3 |
| 5.4 | Yards per rush | 3.8 |
| 1 | Turnovers | 1 |
| 6-51 | Penalties | 8-89 |
| 25:18 | Possession | 34:42 |
Costliest call
Q2 3:51 UCLA field goal on 4th & 3 at ASU 3. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 0.83 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 2:41ASUCristian Zendejas 32 Yd Field Goal 42–23
- Q4 6:43ASURachaad White 1 Yd Run (Cristian Zendejas Kick)39–23
- Q3 13:32ASURachaad White 49 Yd Run (DeaMonte Trayanum Run for Two-Point Conversion)32–23
- Q2 0:00UCLANicholas Barr-Mira 26 Yd Field Goal 24–23
- Q2 2:44ASURicky Pearsall 54 Yd pass from Jayden Daniels (Cristian Zendejas Kick)24–20
- Q2 3:51UCLANicholas Barr-Mira 21 Yd Field Goal 17–20
- Q2 8:26ASURicky Pearsall 65 Yd pass from Jayden Daniels (Cristian Zendejas Kick)17–17
- Q2 10:03UCLABrittain Brown 1 Yd Run (Nicholas Barr-Mira Kick)10–17
- Q2 11:59ASUDeaMonte Trayanum 6 Yd Run (Cristian Zendejas Kick)10–10
- Q2 14:57UCLAKyle Philips 3 Yd pass from Dorian Thompson-Robinson (Nicholas Barr-Mira Kick)3–10
- Q1 4:11ASUCristian Zendejas 25 Yd Field Goal 3–3
- Q1 10:40UCLANicholas Barr-Mira 48 Yd Field Goal 0–3
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (UCLA Elo 1635, ASU Elo 1688 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects UCLA -0.3 (52% to win) — 2.7 points clear of ASU's market line of -3. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2021
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles#60 of 112 in 2021 by biggest miss · #99 of 128 in 2021 by longest odds · #45 of 62 in 2021 by biggest poll gap.
The 2021 upset archive →UCLA leads 23–16–1 · 53% have been one-possession games
| ASU | UCLA | |
|---|---|---|
| +14.8 (#18) | CORE overall | +14.8 (#19) |
| +8 / -7 | offense / defense | +15 / +0 |
| 2.60 | points / drive | 3.08 |
| 1.79 | allowed / drive | 2.24 |
| 19% | three-and-outs | 16% |
| -5 | pass over expected | -5 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →